1. Highways UK 2018 CIHT Futures - The Future for Transport Planners
24pt Subtitle here
Highways UK 2018 CIHT Futures - The Future for Transport Planners
Sue Percy – CIHT Chief Executive

2. Changing times, more uncertainty?
“There is nothing as uncertain and unchanging as
uncertainty and change”
J F Kennedy
(also said) – “The only reason to give a speech
is to change the world.”

3. Recognising changing times

4. Appreciating changing times – necessary skills, tools and techniques
Wide recognition of the need to adapt.
CIHT Futures workshops highlighted the skills
gaps and shortcomings of techniques.
CIHT Findings validated in the Commission on
Travel Demand Report May 2018 “All Change?”

5. Futures in practice: The skills we need to build
Countering Decision Biases:
If unacknowledged and unaddressed, these shape the way we interact with information and expert views.
Sunk cost fallacy - intense aversion to loss which means we extend a previous unsatisfactory approach.
Confirmation bias – we seek only for supporting evidence.
Be aware of cognitive fluency – easily understood ideas gain ground.
Top Tip: Give a voice to different generations of professionals in examining the future to avoid bias.
Learn to seek out contra evidence to support making decisions.

6. Futures in practice: The skills we need to build
Exposing uncertainty:
Critical uncertainties exist – “what will society want to do in future?”
How will we want our places to be?
Scrutinise our traffic forecasting and appraisal techniques.
Silvertown Tunnel Development Consent Order:
“The Secretary of State further agrees that there would be no merit in refusing the application based on uncertainties around traffic modelling, and in turn air quality, as these certainties are likely to remain in any new application” May 2018

7. Futures in practice: The skills we need to build
Re think the decision pathways we use:
Put policy goals first – “what is policy trying to achieve and is this the best way to achieve them?”
More positive transport and land use planning – DECIDE AND PROVIDE APPROACH
Nurture Strong Leadership
“Science is not just about method, it is about mindset. At its best, it is driven by a restless spirit, an intellectual courage, a willingness to face up to failures and to be honest about key data, even if it undermines cherished beliefs.” Matthew Syed (Black Box Thinking 2015)

8. Futures in practice: The tools we need to use
Traditional Traffic models?
“Models however, by definition, represent simplified representations of the real world and the underlying processes shaping the observe patterns of behaviour. Models which therefore can never be totally correct should be viewed as a compromise between the knowledge and expectations of competent professionals and a logically reasonable representation of expected conditions.”
Silvertown Tunnel Panel Report May 2018

9. Futures in practice: The tools we need to use
A robust evidence base
Recognise the divergence between national forecasts of demand in local areas and what happens in on the ground.
More evidence on how projects and policies deliver against forecasts, Highways England POPE programme looks at flow first year and fifth year of scheme opening.
Evidence is key to learning and adapting to achieve high performance.
Top Tip: A FUTURES Lab should be established – range of disciplines, perspectives to develop plausible social futures on which to plan transport policy.

10. Futures in practice: The Techniques we can use
Scenario Planning:
Consider our choices and society’s future needs
Tool being used by Transport Scotland, TfGM, TfL and Devon County Council

11. Divergent, plausible futures Percentage change in total distance travelled by car from 2014 to 2042
Co-operative and Close
Global Locals
high 3%
53%
physical
Accessibility preference
virtual
Relative cost of energy
25%
35%
low
Travellers’ Paradise
Digital Decadence

12. Futures in practice: The Techniques we can use
Putting policy first – Norway’s challenge – “What kind of investment do need to make to help our cities to thrive without growing traffic levels?”

13. Futures in practice: The Techniques we can use
Work Iteratively – Monitor and adapt linking spatial, economic and transport strategies – TfGM

14. CIHT FUTURES – WebTAG – consultation 2018
WebTAG consultation ‘ Appraisal and Modelling Strategy - Informing Future Investment Decisions’
Multiple references to uncertainty in the document (at the outset in the Table of Contents):
Uncertainty over the future of travel
Reflecting uncertainty over the future of travel
Sources of uncertainty in modelling and appraisal
Dealing with uncertainty in modelling and appraisal
Providing guidance and tools to better reflect uncertainty over the future of travel

15. Futures in practice: The Techniques we can use
Learn to Ask Key Questions:
What type of place to we want to create for the future?
What actions do we need to take to create this place?
What is our legacy for future generations?