1. 16th Int’l Loss Prevention Symposium
June 16-19, 2019
Then, and now:
Delft 1974 versus 2019, more than four decades and 16 Loss Prevention symposia further!
Hans J. Pasman

2. Front page of the Proceedings of the 1971 Loss Prevention Symposium organized by the Institution of Chemical Engineers
(IChemE) at
Newcastle upon Tyne

4. Epilogue by Mr. Ch. Buschmann Chairman 1974 Local Organizing Committee
Club of Rome – Forester model
2nd and 3rd order damaging effects
WASH-1400 The Reactor Safety Study
Quantification of Risk?
Initiation of Rijnmond COVO study
Central world-wide data bank?

5. Comparison of list of topics or themes

6. Knowledge level has been growing
Resilience?
From hindsight to foresight
Preventive thinking
Legislation
2000
2010
Year
Attention to Human
Failure/
Factors
Safety in management focus
Technical safety: improved materials and designs
Safety Management System
Culture
Safety level
2020

7. Trend of decreasing injury and fatality
Int’l Oil & Gas Producers
Shell company and sub-contractors

8. Loss Prevention Then, and Now
Tremendous increase personal safety
Shift of focus towards prevention
Use of scientifically based methods
Support by academia
Educational courses bachelor level, Ph.D’s
1990s Competition and ‘downsizing’
Shift towards consultant and academic participation

9. The 1974 papers “Safety is a money spinner” Checklist
Prof. Trevor Kletz’s Myths of the Chem. Ind.
Vapor loud explosion research
Gas and dust explosion:
Dr. Bartknecht’s 1 m3 -
vessel, KG and KSt values.
Gas dispersion
Emergency response (in ‘industrial conurbation’)

10. Hazardous properties of substances

11. Milestones: HAZOP - SMS - LOPA – STS 1975 – 1990 – 1995 – 2000
System approach:
System is more than the sum of parts
Safety is emergent
Nancy G. Leveson, Engineering a safer world, systems thinking applied to safety, The MIT Press

12. Conclusion Evolution is from hindsight to foresight.
But, “loss prevention” calls for risk prediction.
There is an ‘Ocean’ of possibilities and uncertainty.
Hazard scenario identification needs improvement.
Digital P&ID + simulation + automation + thinking.
Enables risk assessment in design, layout, planning.
Digitization; Big Data & Analytics are on their way.
Indicators: holistically: plant, people, procedures.
Dynamic risk assessment operations.
Resilience assessment and preparation.