1. ARE COUNTRIES ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE SDG 4?
MEETING COMMITMENTS
ARE COUNTRIES ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE SDG 4?
Permanent Observer Mission of the African Union to the United Nations New York, 09 July 2019
Silvia Montoya, Director UNESCO Institute for Statistics
Manos Antoninis, Director, Global Education Monitoring Report
Meeting Commitments: Are Countries on Track to Achieve SDG 4?

2. The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) is the official source of cross-nationally comparable data on education, as ratified by the E2030 FFA. It is also responsible to work with partners to develop new indicators, statistical approaches and monitoring tools to better assess progress across the targets related to UNESCO’s mandate.
The Global Education Monitoring Report (GEMR) is the mechanism for monitoring and reporting on SDG 4 as part of the overall SDG follow-up and review.
Meeting Commitments: Are Countries on Track to Achieve SDG 4?
Together, we have produced the very first projections of selected indicators for SDG 4 to see the extent to which the world is on or off track to achieve SDG 4.

3. SDG 4 global monitoring framework: one goal, ten targets
4.1 Primary and secondary education
4.2 Early childhood
4.3 Technical and tertiary education
4.4 Skills for work
4.5 Equity
4.6 Literacy
4.7 Sustainable development
4.a Learning environments
4.b Scholarship
4.c Teachers
Finance
Universality: for all countries
Inclusion: leave no one behind
Linkages: collaboration across sectors

4. Target 4.1: Primary and secondary education enrolment
More than 220 million children, adolescents and youth will still be out of school in 2030
Projected out-of-school rates in low-income countries in 2030
31% of adolescents of lower secondary school age
19% of children of primary school age
If current trends continue, almost 1 in 6 children and youth (between the ages of about 6-17) will still be out of school in 2030.
As shown in this chart, which focuses on adolescents between the ages of about years, there has been no progress in reducing the out-of-school rate since about 2010 just after the growth in aid to education came to a halt following the financial crisis.
Focus specifically on low-income countries. According to our projections,
19% of children of primary school age
31% of adolescents of lower secondary school age
50% of youth of upper secondary school age
Will be out of school in 2030.
50% of youth of upper secondary school age
Source: UIS database and projections.

5. Target 4.1: Primary and secondary education completion
Only six in 10 young people will be finishing secondary school in 2030
Projected completion rates globally in 2030
93% in primary
85% in lower secondary
60% in upper secondary
The current pace of progress is insufficient to achieve Target 4.1 without a transformational departure from past trajectories. While universal completion remains an aspirational target, countries’ performance should be assess against ambitious but achievable benchmarks at the regional level.
It should be noted that the projections presented in this slide are based on the ultimate cohort completion rate – i.e. take into account children/youth 3-5 years above the intended age for the last grade.
Source: GEM Report team estimates and projections.

6. Target 4.1: Primary and secondary education learning
The world will approach the learning target only if progress equals the rate of the best-performing countries
In Latin America:
nearly 60% of Grade 3 students reach minimum proficiency
in 2030, the proportion will stay the same if the average trend continues
But it could reach 80% at the rate of the best-performing country
It is also important to note a downward trend in Francophone African countries. According to PASEC results for 10 countries, 42% of grade 6 students achieve minimum proficiency but this proportion could drop by nearly one-third in 2030.
Source: UIS estimates and projections.

7. Target 4.2: Early childhood
Access to early childhood education is expanding but low- and middle-income countries have to catch up
Pre-primary participation rate (children one year younger than official primary school entry age)
Global rate expected to rise from 69% to 82% in 2030
Pre-primary gross enrolment ratio
Global rate increased from 32% to 50% since 2000 and expected to reach 68% in 2030
Source: UIS database and projections.

8. Target 4.3: Technical, vocational, tertiary and adult education
Tertiary education systems will keep expanding over the next 10 years
Tertiary gross enrolment ratio:
Increased from 19% to 38% from – 2017 globally
Expected to reach 52% in middle income countries in 2030, but very modest increase in low income countries.
The biggest increase in tertiary enrolment ratios expected in middle-income countries.
Source: UIS database and projections.

9. Target 4.5: Equity
The greatest disparities are based on wealth, especially in poor countries
Disparities by wealth
For every 100 of the richest youth who complete upper secondary, those who do among the poorest youth are:
85 in high-income
64 in upper-middle-income
19 in lower-middle-income
11 in low-income countries
Disparities by location and gender
In low income countries:
26 rural youth complete upper secondary for every 100 urban youth
70 young women complete upper secondary for every 100 young men
The greatest disparities appear to be linked to wealth although sex and location must also be taken into account. Considerable work with partners is now underway to produce more data on disability and education.
Source: World Inequality Database on Education.

10. Target 4.5: Equity
The greatest disparities are based on wealth, especially in poor countries
Disparities by wealth
For every 100 of the richest youth who complete upper secondary, those who do among the poorest youth are:
85 in high-income
64 in upper-middle-income
19 in lower-middle-income
11 in low-income countries
Disparities by location and gender
In low income countries:
26 rural youth complete upper secondary for every 100 urban youth
70 young women complete upper secondary for every 100 young men
The greatest disparities appear to be linked to wealth although sex and location must also be taken into account. Considerable work with partners is now underway to produce more data on disability and education.
Source: World Inequality Database on Education.

11. Target 4.c: Teachers
The proportion of trained teachers is falling in sub-Saharan Africa
Only 64% of primary and 50% of secondary school teachers have the minimum required training in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The proportion of trained teachers is falling in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the only region to face a growing school-age population. Many countries are recruiting contract teachers, who often lack training. Greater investment is needed for the training and recruitment of teachers and new pedagogical approaches to support quality education.
Source: UIS database.

12. Finance
At least one-quarter of all countries spend less than 4% of GDP and less than 15% of their budget on education
Main message: 43 out of 148 countries from different income groups or regions did not meet either benchmark.
Source: GEM Report team analysis based on UIS (government and household) and OECD CRS (donor) databases.

13. Finance – Aid to education
Share of education in total aid has fallen from 10% in 2010 to 7% in 2017
Source: GEM Report team analysis based on OECD CRS.

14. Monitoring progress in SDG 4 remains challenging
Areas to improve:
Benchmarks for countries are missing
Methodologies and measurement tools still being developed
Data availability below 50% for flagship indicators
Countries and partners must:
Finance data collection in poor countries by $60 million more per year
Coordinate and align all support with SDG 4
Broker the supply of funds with the demand for data
Countries need more and better data to target education policies and resources. Yet today:
Less than half of countries can report data for key indicators on learning
Shortfall of US$132 million per year to produce global and thematic SDG 4 indicators

15. A call to action to monitor and deliver on SDG 4
Governments should finance
Partners should coordinate
Beyond AVERAGES
equity and inclusion
Household surveys with ministries of education working with NSOs
Financing of household surveys and pooling of existing information
Beyond ACCESS
quality and learning
National assessments and participation in cross-national assessments
Financing of learning assessments and of capacity development
Beyond BASICS
content fit for sustainable development
Policy dialogue in analyses of curricula and textbooks
Analyses of curricula and textbooks
Beyond SCHOOLING
lifelong learning
Labour force surveys and direct skills assessments
Improvements in labour force survey questions
Beyond EDUCATION
cross-sectoral collaboration
Coordinate to develop key indicators especially in early childhood
Beyond COUNTRIES
regional/global collaboration
Strengthen coordination in the Technical Cooperation Group
Broker between donors and countries

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