1. Sugar tax efficacy – a global perspective
Geoff Parker
Executive Director – International Council of Beverages Associations Asia Pacific Group
Chief Executive Officer – Australian Beverages Council

2. POPULAR
EFFECTIVE
PRO TAX
PROGRESSIVE

3. 7x US CITIES POPULAR POPULAR? 40+ COUNTRIES WHO/NGOs WHO Good Buy/ECHO
Finland 1940s
Norway 1980s
Mexico 2014
UK 6 April
Malaysia 1 July
40+ COUNTRIES
Berkeley CA
Philadelphia PA
Boulder CO
San Francisco CA
7x US CITIES
POPULAR
POPULAR?
WHO Good Buy/ECHO
NGOs
Academia
WHO/NGOs

4. PHILLY EFFECTIVE EFFECTIVE? MEXICO BERKELEY Colchero et al 5% in 2014
Silver et al
Taxed bevs consumption down
Untaxed H2O up
BERKELEY
EFFECTIVE?
Tax $ earmarked for for PreK programs
Beverage sales down 24% in grocery stores
PHILLY

5. WIN3 PROGRESSIVE PROGRESSIVE? REDUCE INTAKE RAISE REVENUE
WBG suggests taxes deliver win-win-win outcome
WIN3
PROGRESSIVE
Price increase means people drink less means people consume less kcal means people lose weight means population health improves
REDUCE INTAKE
PROGRESSIVE?
In 2016 UK Treasury projected £500M pa
RAISE REVENUE

6. REGRESSIVE & UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
UNPOPULAR
INEFFECTIVE
ANTI TAX
REGRESSIVE & UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

7. 3K US CITIES UNPOPULAR UNPOPULAR UN+WHO 150+ COUNTRIES
80% countries have no tax
Adoption rate slowing…
AUS, NZ, SIN, CAN..
150+ COUNTRIES
3,000 US cities don’t have a tax
Cook Country repealed
States banning tax
3K US CITIES
UNPOPULAR
UNPOPULAR
Multiple times SSB tax considered and rejected
Clear shift away tax references
Academia?
UN+WHO

8. UNPOPULAR UN+WHO CONSIDERED & REJECTED
UN Pol Declaration HLM NCDs (09/2018)
UN Resolution GH&FP (10/2018)
WHO ‘Tackling NCDs’(BEST BUY) (2017)
WHO Global High-Level Conference on NCDs (Montevideo Roadmap) (2017)
WHO ‘Saving Lives, Spending Less’Report (05/2018)
WHO Independent High-Level Commission on NCDs ‘Time To Deliver’ (06/2018)
UN+WHO
CONSIDERED & REJECTED
UNPOPULAR

9. BERK OTHER MEX INEFFECTIVE MX Treasury contradicts modelling studies
Y1-1.9%;Y2+1.9%;Y3+1.7%
NHS obesity rates increased
73% to 76% (greatest increase in women)
MEX
Cal from taxed bevs dropped 6 cal/day
Cal from untaxed bevs increased 32 cal/day
Net increase 26 cal per day
BERK
INEFFECTIVE
NZIER (MOH) 47 studies – impact ‘weak’
2016 Systematic Review – no evidence tax reduce pop weight permanently
MGI – portion size and reform most effective
OTHER

10. UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
MX 63% of tax collected for low SES households
Of these, 37% below poverty line
Taxes take greatest share of income from low-income families
REGRRESSIVE
UK OBR – “taxes will raise inflation” - will raise cost of interest payments on index-linked payments
= £1BN impact
‘18 UK SDIL projected £230M
REVENUE/
INFLATION
REGRESSIVE W/ UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
MX- 1,700
UK – 4k
Philly – 1,190
SA – circa 60k
JOBS

11. PPPs SOLUTION EDUCATION PORTFOLIO RENOVATION McKinsey Global Institute
Greatest ROI (DALYS)
1. Portion Size
2. Reformulation
PORTFOLIO RENOVATION
Taxes don’t teach healthy lifestyles
Focus on children and low groups
Industry + NGOs + Govts
EDUCATION
SOLUTION
PPPs eg sugar reduction pledges, school guidelines etc can fast track portfolio renovation agendas w/out blunt instrument like tax
Private sector work in collaboration with NGOs, Govts.
PPPs

12. Timeline Lorem Ipsum Dolor
Thank You
Geoff Parker
Executive Director – ICBA APAC Regional Group
CEO Australian Beverages Council
@TheGeoffParker
@icba_apac
Timeline Lorem Ipsum Dolor