1. Science with Future CMB Observations Lloyd Knox UC Davis

2. CMB Accomplishments CMB is a powerful cosmological probe –Applicability of linear theory highly precise theoretical calculations –Richness of angular power spectrum phenomenology (all those bumps and wiggles… not just a power law) lots of information importantCMB is a proven technique with many important accomplishments –Confirming our basic picture of structure formation (gravitational instability) –Confirming dark energy (acceleration inferred from SN data not widely accepted until confirmed by CMB) –Verifying prediction #1 of inflation ( tot = 1 c.f. ~0.2) –Ruling out defect model for structure formation in favor of inflation –Verifying prediction #2 of inflation: correlations on super-horizon scales –Verifying prediction #3 of inflation: nearly scale-invariant spectrum of primordial perturbations –Best constraints on key cosmological parameters: baryon density, matter density, amplitude of primordial perturbations, temperature of the CMB –WMAP1 cosmological interpretation paper (Spergel et al. 2003) has 3795 citations to date! This has been the default paper to cite for cosmology.

3. Future Goals Detect a departure from scale invariance Reduce model dependence Detect gravity waves and determine the energy scale of inflation Find evidence of the Landscape

4. Current Constraints on Inflation Parameters Spergel et al. (2006) On the verge of verifying yet another prediction of inflation!

5. Ruling Out Harrison-Zeldovich Planck will nail it by –using long lever arm enabled by high resolution and high sensitivity with no cross-experiment relative calibration challenges –cleanly controlling SZ contribution due to frequency coverage to higher frequencies where spectral shapes are very different –determining with low-l polarization to break the - n s degeneracy The first point is the dominant one. With the measurement extended to high l there is no need to use the low l data (affected by reionization) to get n s. Discarding all data at l < 40 will degrade Plancks error on n s by less than 10%.

6. Forecasted Power Spectrum Errors Simulated 4-year Model (red curves) has n s = 1 Enabled by Plancks greater sensitivity, angular resolution and frequency coverage WMAP -- 4 years Planck

7. South Pole Telescope (SPT) First light achieved with the 10m South Pole Telescope, February 16, 2007. Maps of Jupiter made, showing telescope and optics working as designed. Plan to do 4,000 sq. degree survey at 90, 150 and 220 GHz at ~ arc minute resolution. The SPT is a collaboration between the U of Chicago, UC Berkley, Case Western Reserve University, U of Illinois, and Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory Deployment at South Pole

8. Forecasts for SPT + WMAP6 Assumes SPT maps useable from 200 < l < 2000. Relative calibration allowed to float freely. Discriminates among inflation models. Again, long lever arm means low l polarization info unnecessary.

9. Future Goals Detect a departure from scale invariance Reduce model dependence Detect gravity waves and determine the energy scale of inflation Find evidence of the Landscape

10. Model Dependence All parameter inferences from the CMB are highly indirect and therefore model dependent. Planck will enable us to test the models much better than can be done with current data. BBN example: –Assuming no isocurvature modes the WMAP3 constraints on baryon density have errors of a few per cent. –Dropping this assumption the uncertainty becomes 20%, assuming 4 years of WMAP and 2% assuming Planck.

11. Another Model Dependence Example: JDEM/SNe + CMB WMAP4 Planck Allowing for adiabatic + isocurvature initial conditions Planck ellipse area (the DETF figure- of-merit) is 3.5 times smaller. Knox, Trotta & Song (preliminary) CMB experiments are important for Dark Energy probes because they pin down the matter density, baryon density and the distance to last scattering.

12. Future Goals Detect a departure from scale invariance Reduce model dependence Detect gravity waves and determine the energy scale of inflation Find evidence of the Landscape

13. Current Constraints on Inflation Parameters Spergel et al. (2006)

14. Future Goals Detect a departure from scale invariance Reduce model dependence Detect gravity waves and determine the energy scale of inflation Find evidence of the Landscape

15. Let 10 1000 flowers blossom Let 10 1000 flowers blossom < 0 < 0 = 0 = 0 > 0 > 0 A. Linde

16. Potentially Observable Consequence of the Landscape Our hot big bang born in a tunnelling event from a neighboring metastable vacuum ==> open FRW Universe. Tunnelling event followed by slow roll inflation and then reheating. The fewer the e-foldings of inflation, N, the larger the residual curvature. Freivogel et al. 2005

17. Potentially Observable Consequence of the Landscape Observational bound: N > 62 (assuming tot > 0.98 and some reheat temperature). Anthropic bound: N > 59.5 (otherwise curvature domination sets in too early for galaxy formation)* These numbers are not very different! Freivogel et al. 2005 *Weinberg (1987), Tegmark & Rees (1998)

18. Potentially Observable Consequence of the Landscape Assume –V( ) = V 0 (1-x / ) in region of interest –V 0, x and vary from 0 to 1 with a uniform measure. Result is P(N) / 1/N 4. Normalizing with anthropic bound so that s 59.5 1 P(N) dN = 1, they find P(N>62) = 0.88. With improving bounds on curvature do we have a chance of detecting it? –P(64>N>62) ~0.1. [N=64 ==> k = 0.0004] Freivogel et al. 2005

19. Determining Curvature SN: space-based supernova mission similar to DETF modeling WL, BAO: LSST Knox, Song & Zhan 2006 All these forecasts include Planck Assumes dark energy parametrized by w 0, w a.

20. Summary Future CMB observations will –Detect expected departure from scale invariance at high precision –Greatly reduce model dependence / allow for more rigorous tests of the adiabatic Gaussian model –Tensor signal from simplest inflationary models are within reach –Combined with dark energy probes, potentially provide observational evidence for the string theory landscape.