1. Beyond climate change: Creating One Planet communities
Climate and Health Alliance, Melbourne
Tuesday 19th March 2019
Dr. Trevor Hancock
Retired Professor and Senior Scholar
School of Public Health and Social Policy
University of Victoria

2. Outline We are undermining the ecological determinants of health
The greatest threat to global health in the 21st century
Welcome to the Anthropocene,
We are undermining the ecological determinants of health
Creating One Planet Communities/Regions
Feeding a One Planet Region
Advocacy is a duty

3. 1. The greatest threat to global health in the 21st century

4. “Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. ” - WHO
But is it?

5. How about this?

6. Living Planet Index 1970 - 2014 60% decline since 1970
Average abundance of 16,704 vertebrate populations representing 4,005 species monitored across the globe - mammals, birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians
60% decline since 1970
WWF Living Planet Report : Aiming Higher. Grooten, M. and Almond, R.E.A.(Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland.

7. Or this?

8. Crossing Planetary Boundaries
Novel entities = POPs, heavy metals, nano-particles etc
Genetic diversity = extinctions per million species-years (E/MSY)
Functional diversity = Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII)
Steffen, Will et al (2015) Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet Science 15 January 2015
Steffen et al, 2015

9. Or this?

10. Global Ecological Footprint, 1961 - 2014
World biocapacity has increased about 27% in the past 50 years.
Humanity’s Ecological Footprint has increased about 190% over the same period.
Note more than ½ is carbon
WWF Living Planet Report : Aiming Higher. Grooten, M. and Almond, R.E.A.(Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland.

11. The greatest threat to health in the 21st century is the Anthropocene

12. Relationship between planetary health and human health
Source:
UN Environment Program (2019) Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Summary for Policymakers Nairobi: UNEP
UNEP (2019) Global Environment Outlook

13. VIDEO

14. Three aspects of the Anthropocene
A geological phenomenon, a new geological epoch
An ecological phenomenon – massive and rapid global ecological change
A human phenomenon - we are the anthropos in the Anthropocene

15. Geologic aspects of the Anthropocene
Layers containing
Minerals
Pure aluminum
Tungsten carbide
Glass
Plastic
Concrete
Chemicals
CO2
Nitrogen fertilisers
POPs
Radioactive particles
Zalasiewicz, Jan (2016) A history in layers Scientific American Special 25(5): 104 – 11
Waters, C; Zalasiewicz, J; Summerhayes, C; Barnosky, A; Poirier, C et al (2016) The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene Science  Vol. 351 (Issue 6269)
Plus changes in fossil assemblages
Humans – 1/3 of mass of all land vertebrates
Domesticated species – 2/3
Wild species - <5%

16. Ecological aspects of the Anthropocene
Climate change
Ocean acidification
Ozone layer depletion
Resource depletion
Pollution and ecotoxicity
Species extinctions
ALL AT THE SAME TIME

17. It is the both the scale and the rapidity of change that matters.
It is the both the scale and the rapidity of change that matters

18. The Great Acceleration
Trends from 1750 to 2010 in indicators for the structure and functioning of the Earth System
Note 1950
Steffen et al, 2015
Steffen, Will; Broadgate, Wendy; Deutsch, Lisa; Gaffney, Owen and Ludwig, Cornelia (2015a) The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration The Anthropocene Review 2(1) 81–98

19. The human aspect of the Anthropocene - we are the ‘Anthropos’ in the Anthropocene

20. The IPAT Equation: Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Societal & human forces driving change,1900 – 2011

21. The Great Acceleration
The drivers Trends from 1750 to 2010 in globally aggregated indicators for socio-economic development Note 1950
Steffen et al, 2015
Steffen, Will; Broadgate, Wendy; Deutsch, Lisa; Gaffney, Owen and Ludwig, Cornelia (2015a) The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration The Anthropocene Review 2(1) 81–98

22. My life in the Anthropocene
I was born in From then to approx 2010/2012
Earth System trends
CO2
+ 26%
Methane
+59.5%
Global surface temperature anomaly (0C) v v
Ozone loss (2012)
Peak loss (1994)
50.8%
66.9%
Ocean H ion
+18%
Marine fish capture
+ 4.6 x
Nitrogen flux to coast
4.26 x
Tropical forest loss
(compared to 1% in 1700)
27.66% v
15.65%
Agricultural land
% of total (0.08% in 1750)
0.38% v
0.31%
Terrestrial biosphere degradation (2.8% in 1700)
28.6% (2000) v
14% (1950)
Socio-economic trends
Population
2.73 x
Real GDP (2005 US$)
11.1 x
Urban population
4.74 x
Primary energy use
5.14 x
Fertilizer consumption
14.4 x
Large dams
5.85 x
Water use
3.28 x
Paper production
5.38 x
Transportation (vehicle #s)
7.23
Telecommunications (billion landlines and subscriptions)
> 9,000 x
International tourism arrivals
37 x
Based on Great Acceleration data - Global (October 2014)
Source: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme -

23. We may be the Anthropos in the Anthropocene
But who is ‘we’?

24. Inequity in the Ecological Footprint
The green line represents world average biocapacity per capita.
Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2014 Summary (p 16) /
Global Footprint Network, 2014

25. Inequity in the Ecological Footprint
Since about 1970, the EF of high-income countries, as a group, has been between 5 and 6 global hectares per capita (gha/cap)
For low-income countries it has been just over 1 gha/cap;
World average biocapacity per person has declined from just under 3 to just under 2 gha/cap (Figure 35).
Clearly, high-income countries are getting on average about 3.5 times their fair share, while low- income countries are getting less than their fair share.

26. Inequity in the Living Planet Index
High-income countries % increase
Middle-income countries - 18% decline
Low-income countries % decline
WWF (2014) Living Planet Report 2014: Species and spaces, people and places Gland, Switzerland: WWF International
Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2014 Summary (p 17)

27. Historical contribution to climate change
Over the period from 1850 to 2012,
the USA was responsible for 22% of total CO2 emissions and the EU for 18%;
China, Russia, India and Brazil were responsible for 13, 6, 5 and 4 percent respectively, with the rest of the world accountable for 37%.
It is estimated that by 2100 the USA and the EU will have contributed almost half (45%) of temperature increase resulting from overall Kyoto GHG emissions.
Rocha et al., 2015

28. Inequitable carbon emissions
“the poorest half of the global population – around billion people – are responsible for only around 10% of total global emissions attributed to individual consumption”
“50% of these emissions can be attributed to the richest 10% of people around the world”.
This latter group “have average carbon footprints 11 times as high as the poorest half of the population, and 60 times as high as the poorest 10%.
The average footprint of the richest 1% of people globally could be 175 times that of the poorest 10%”
Oxfam, 2015

29. 2. We are undermining the ecological determinants of health

30. The Earth provides Oxygen Water Food Materials Fuels UV protection
Waste decompositon and recycling
A relatively stable and benign climate
These are the most fundamental determinants of health

31. Global change and public health: The 2015 CPHA Report
CPHA Project
Document the potential health impacts of major global ecological changes
Climate and atmospheric change
Pollution and ecotoxicity
Resource depletion
Loss of species and biodiversity
Identify the drivers of these changes
Propose an action agenda for public health

32. Suggested citation
Hancock, Trevor, Spady, Donald W. and Soskolne, Colin L. (Editors) (2015) Global change and Public Health: Addressing the Ecological Determinants of Health: The Report in Brief Available at
Available at

33. Our ultimate message
The population health impacts of the ecological determinants of health are large, and comparable to the impact of the social determinants of health
The two interact and must be considered as a whole – we cannot continue to be ecologically blind

34. Planetary health
“the health of human civilization and the state of the natural systems on which it depends”

35. Yet we are undermining the fundamental determinants
“At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning. Human activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.”
Board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005

36. Mortgaging the health of future generations
“we have been mortgaging the health of future generations to realise economic and development gains in the present. By unsustainably exploiting nature’s resources, human civilisation has flourished but now risks substantial health effects from the degradation of nature’s life support systems in the future.”
Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on Planetary Health
Whitmee, S., Haines, A., Beyrer, C., Boltz, F., Capon, A.G., et al., (2015). Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: Report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on Planetary Health, The Lancet, 386: (1007), pp. 1973– (last accessed 11 August 2016).

37. 3. Creating One Planet Communities

38. In Canada and Australia we act as if we had this . . .
test

39. . . . when we actually have this

40. So we have to find a way to live together within the constraints of this one small planet, which means . . .

41. . . . an 80% reduction in Canada and Australia’s footprint

42. . . . while at the same time meeting basic needs and ensuring high levels of human and social development and good health for all

43. The greatest challenge to health in the 21st century
How do we live equitably, in harmony and in good health on this one small planet we call home?

44. 10 principles of One Planet Living
Bioregional Annual Review,

45. Happily, there are many health co-benefits . . .
This is a wonderful opportunity (and challenge) if you are concerned about
Healthy eating, physical activity or obesity
Health inequity
Air pollution
Healthy built environments
Climate change
Social capital
Governance for health
and many other issues

48. One Planet Saanich
A year-long project that brings together municipalities, organisations, businesses, schools and community groups in
Canada (Saanich)
Denmark (Elsinore)
South Africa (Durban)
Tarusa (Russia)
the UK (Oxfordshire)
to make our cities better places to live! 

49. Local ecological footprint = 2 – 3 planets
Source: ecoCity Footprint Tool
Victoria & Saanich Pilot Testing Results
One Planet Conversations
April 12th, 2018
Presented by:
Dr. Jennie Moore
Cora Hallsworth
Source: Moore and Hallsworth, 2018

50. Source: One Planet Saanich Team, 2018
DRAFT
District of Saanich
One Planet Gap Analysis
[SEPT 18, 2018]
Source: One Planet Saanich Team, 2018

51. Conversations for a One Planet Region
Vision
The Greater Victoria Region achieves social and ecological sustainability, with a high quality of life and a long life in good health for all its citizens, while reducing its ecological footprint to be equivalent to one planet’s worth of bio-capacity.
Mission
The Mission of The Conversations is to establish and maintain community-wide conversations on One Planet living and a One Planet Region.
Learn – Discuss – Imagine – Design – Create

52. Getting to a One Planet Region
First we need to talk and learn about it
Then we need to imagine it
Then we need to design and build it
Physical, social, economic and cultural change
And throughout, we need to measure how we are doing
Learn – Discuss – Imagine – Design – Create

53. 3 a) Feeding a One Planet Region
DRAFT
District of Saanich
One Planet Gap Analysis
[SEPT 18, 2018]
Source: One Planet Saanich Team, 2018

54. “Eat food, not too much, mostly plants” (Michael Pollan, In Defense of Food) would be a good national food policy
McEvoy CT, Temple N. and Woodside JV (2012) Vegetarian diets, low-meat diets and health: a review Public Health Nutr. 15(12):

55. Environmental costs per consumed calorie
“dairy, poultry, pork, and eggs are mutually comparable (to within a factor of 2)
beef production requires 28, 11, 5, and 6 times more land, irrigation water, GHG [greenhouse gases], and Nr [reactive nitrogen], respectively, than the average of the other livestock categories”
Eshel, Shepon, Makov and Milo, 2014
Eshel, Gidon; Shepon, Alon; Makov, Tamar and Milo, Ron (2014) Land, irrigation water, greenhouse gas, and reactive nitrogen burdens of meat, eggs, and dairy production in the United States Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(33): 11996–12001

56. GHG emissions by diet type, UK, 2014
Diet kgCO2e/day
High meat-eaters (>=100 g/d) 7.19
Medium meat-eaters (50-99 g/d) 5.63
Low meat-eaters (<50 g/d) 4.67
Fish-eaters
Vegetarians
Vegans
Age-and-sex-adjusted mean GHG emissions (in kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents per day - kgCO2e/day) for a standard 2,000 kcal diet in the UK
Scarborough et al, 2014
Scarborough, Peter; Appleby, Paul N.; Mizdrak, Anja; Briggs, Adam D. M.; Travis, Ruth C.; Bradbury, Kathryn E. and Key, Timothy J. (2014) Dietary greenhouse gas emissions of meat-eaters, fish-eaters, vegetarians and vegans in the UK Climatic Change (2014) 125:179–192
DOI /s

57. The EAT-Lancet Commission
“global consumption of fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes will have to double, and consumption of foods such as red meat and sugar will have to be reduced by more than 50 percent”.
“a diet rich in plant-based foods and with fewer animal source foods confers both improved health and environmental benefits”

58. The new Canada Food Guide (2019)

59. Advocacy is a duty
Hancock, Trevor (2015) Advocacy: Its not a dirty word, it's a duty (Editorial) Can J Public Health 106(3): e86 - 8

60. The ‘public’ in public health
‘The public’ - the collective sense of ‘people’ – the community
We work in and with community
We work in the public interest
We work for the public – we are public servants
‘Public’ means public policy – which means political (but not necessarily partisan)

61. We are not neutral
We are pro-health and anti- anything that harms health
If we are not rocking the boat or ruffling feathers, we are not really doing our job
and it has been that way for more than 600 years!
See Cipolla, 1976
Cipolla, C. (1976) Public Health and the Medical Profession in the Renaissance. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

62. But we need a platform
MOHs work for governments or Quangos (Health authorities)
So their independence is threatened and must be protected – but how?
?? Become more like Auditor-General
Academics with tenure have a DUTY to speak up – why else give them the privilege of tenure?
We do not stop being citizens when we become a public servant or an academic
Join professional organisations, NGOs
or found one!

63. Good people should not stay silent
“When bad men (sic) combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
Edmund Burke, 1770
Bad men (sic) need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men (sic) should look on and do nothing.
John Stuart Mill, 1867

64. Dr. Trevor Hancock Thancock@uvic.ca Website: https://trevorhancock.org
Contact
Dr. Trevor Hancock Website: