1. A Microbial Risk Assessor Looks at Food Fraud
Don Schaffner, Ph.D.
Distinguished Professor and Extension Specialist in Food Science
Rutgers, The State University of NJ

2. But first a word from our sponsors…
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3. Why is food fraud hard?
Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
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4. Another reason why it might be hard
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5. Food Fraud vs. Food Safety
Manning and Soon (2016)
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6. Outline Why this topic? Risk based approaches should be applicable
I know about QRMA, but not much about food fraud
Risk based approaches should be applicable
Focus on what is important
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7. Food Safety Examples (Scallan et al.)
88% of US foodborne disease cases come from 13% of pathogens
Norovirus (5.5 M)
Salmonella (1.0 M)
C. perfringens (965 K)
Campylobacter (845 K)
82% of US foodborne disease deaths come from 13% of pathogens
Salmonella (378)
Toxoplasma (327)
L. monocytogenes (255)
Norovirus (149)
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8. Food Fraud Example (Johnson 2014)
61% of reported types come from 24% of types
Oils
Spices
Milk
Sweeteners
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9. Food Fraud Example
57% of EMA incidents come from 21% of ingredient categories
Fish/seafood
Oils, fats
Alcoholic beverages
Meat, meat products
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10. Food Fraud Example
78% of EMA incidents come from 29% of adulteration types
Substitution/ dilution
Unapproved additive
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11. Definitions
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12. Hypothetical Examples
Microbiology
Hazard: Pathogen XYZ
Risk: probability and severity
One in every 1,000 servings contains 1 cell of Organism XYZ, and one cell has a 1/300 chance of causing diarrhea, a 1/20,000 chance of causing hospitalization, and a 1/500,00 chance of causing death
Food Fraud
Hazard: Customer is cheated
Risk: Specifies probability and severity
One in every 100 containers of product X contain a substituted ingredient, where the actual ingredient costs z, and the substituted ingredient cost z/10.
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13. Risk Analysis Components
(Quantitative) Risk Assessment
How big is the risk, what factors control the risk?
Scientific process
Risk Communication
How can we talk about the risk with affected individuals?
Social and psychological process
Risk Management
What can we do about the risk?
Policy-making process, small “p” political
Not scientific, but informed by science
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14. Step in Risk Assessment
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15. Published examples
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16. Food Control 2016 results… 80% correct given 52% correct without
fraud type
country
food category
52% correct without
country of origin
product-country combo
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17. Benefits of membership ;)
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18. Unpublished Example
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19. The future? Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Niels Bohr?
Yogi Berra?
Mark Twain?
Earliest attribution seems to be Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke
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