1. State of the Market
Slide 1: 2019 Market Outlook
[Introduction to AE Wealth and brief personal intro]
Investment Advisory Services offered through AE Wealth Management LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor located in Topeka, KS.
798032

2. The advisory firm presenting this content is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. [Presenting Firm Investment Advisory Disclosure]
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. None of the information contained herein shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or insurance product.
Read to audience.
Do not skip this slide

3. 1st Quarter Recap Q1 was one of the best quarters in recent memory
Dow: %
S&P: % - Strongest quarter since September 2009
Mostly recovered after a tumultuous close to 2018.
The Fed has indicated a delay in interest rate increases due to:
Global economic slow down
Steady economic outlook for the U.S.
Inflation looks muted
March 9 = 10 year anniversary of stock market low from the financial crisis
Since then the S&P 500 is approx. +420%!

4. 1st Quarter Recap What drove the market? Technology sector is up 20%
Apple and Microsoft +15%
Xerox: +60%!
Real Estate
Resulted from lower interest rates
Energy
Boost from higher oil prices
Industrials
Volatile optimism around the U.S. China trade negotiations
Yields fall as Bond prices rise
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note helps set borrowing costs
Closed at +2.41% - down from 2018 close of +2.68%

5. 2nd Quarter Outlook Look for a continuation of: Recent rally
New highs in U.S. equity markets
A return of volatility
What to watch for in Q2:
The Fed in regards to rates
The yield curve
China Trade Talks
Overseas Crisis is a Grab Bag
Breino
European turmoil
North Korea or Russia
Q Outlook:
Look for the recent rally to continue
I believe there will be new highs in U.S. equity markets next quarter
Then the media and the nervous nellies will begin to pick up the chatter because that’s what they do
We will also have a visit from our old friend volatility, which has been mostly absent in Q1 until last week
All that said there are still risks out there and into each day a little rain must fall so here my dark clouds in no particular order:
Fed decides equity markets, or the economy is heating up too fast and decides to change its rates stance
Watch the yield curve if it inverts and remains inverted the likelihood of a recession within the next 6-18 months is a strong possibility
No trade deal with China that will upset markets
OCGB (Overseas crisis grab bag): BREXIT or BREINO (Brexit in Name Only) and European turmoil, North Korea or Russian doing something silly

6. What Now?
So, what now?

7. STAY ON THE PATH MOST IMPORTANTLY – DIVERSIFY!
Focus on what you can control
Stay disciplined
Avoid Gimmicks
MOST IMPORTANTLY – DIVERSIFY!
It’s time to get back to the fundamentals in 2019:
Focus on what you can control
Stay disciplined
Avoid gimmicks and don’t let emotions drive investment decisions
Most importantly – DIVERSIFY!
Harry Markowitz, the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, famously called diversification “the only free lunch in finance.” Consider enhancements to your allocation outside of stocks and mutual funds – and always keep reading and learning!
Remember, stick with your plan, stay diversified, and rely on your trusted financial advisor to help get through the challenging times while staying on your path towards meeting your investment goals
Thank you. I would now be happy to take your questions.