1. Luck, Skill, and How We Drill
Marc Willerth, H&P Technologies

2. Playing the Best Poker Player in the World
Source: WizardOfOdds.com

3. Better to be Lucky or Good?
My strategy: Look at the first 2 cards
If they are above average, bet everything
If they are below average, fold
No trust in my poker skills
Gives me at least a 1 in 6 chance
Source: WizardOfOdds.com

4. Bad Beats: When Luck Overwhelms Skill
My strategy minimized impact of skill, maximized luck
Even perfect decision-making can lose
Winning strategy for the unskilled player
How to make this more likely?
Reduce quantity of information
Reduce quality of information
Minimize number of decision points

5. What Our Advertising Says:
Excerpts from the IADD Directory: “Industry leading experience” “Extensive drilling knowledge” “Trusted expert” “Over 100 years of experience” “Knowledgeable, industry experienced professionals”
We use skill to succeed!

6. Decisions that rely on luck to succeed!
What Do Our Choices Say?
Cut back on non-magnetic spacing
Use long survey course lengths
Neglect proper survey quality procedures
Decisions that rely on luck to succeed!

7. Drillstring Interference for >10,000 bit runs
Median magnitude: 377 nT
95th percentile
Error model: ±440 nT
Real data: ±1903 nT
Uncertainty >4x error model
Spacing has reduced by half

8. Drillstring Interference for >10,000 bit runs
Median magnitude: 377 nT
95th percentile
Error model: ±440 nT
Real data: ±1903 nT
Uncertainty >4x error model
Spacing has reduced by half
MWD Error Model
distribution

9. Course Length, Slide–Rotate, and Positional Error
Reported Position
Survey 2
Survey 1
Error
Rotate
True Position
Slide
How the well was drilled
For short slides and 100’ course
lengths large errors can accumulate

10. Cutting Corners on Survey Quality
Gravity and Magnetic Field data
Often reported with low resolution – unhelpful for QC
Trying to save time and telemetry

11. What have we done to ourselves?

12. Bad Beat #:1 Lateral Spacing
Real-time data: Even Spacing
After correction: Large variations
Lateral spacing: Corrected well paths
Wellpath 1 vs 2
320'
Wellpath 2 vs 3
289'
Wellpath 3 vs 4
395'
Wellpath 4 vs 5
102'
Wellpath 5 vs 6
172'
Lateral spacing: Reported well paths
Wellpath 1 vs 2
229'
Wellpath 2 vs 3
265'
Wellpath 3 vs 4
208'
Wellpath 4 vs 5
232'
Wellpath 5 vs 6
246'
No way to succeed in RT with those constraints!

13. Bad Beat #2: Vertical Well Placement
Two survey sets in the same well show a 40’ TVD difference
How can geosteering be expected to succeed
if we survey only every 100ft?

14. Bad Beat #3: Impossible Troubleshooting
Is this a collision risk, failed tool, or just bad decodes?
Do you want to trip multiple times to find out?

15. Many Targets are Already Unreasonable
Driller’s Window
20ft
MWD Survey
Accuracy
160ft
400ft
50ft
Only 1 in 20 actually hit, even if everything goes right
For a 10k lateral with the “Standard MWD” we claim

16. If We Properly Modelled Uncertainty…
Driller’s Window
20ft
MWD Survey
Accuracy
180ft
700ft
50ft
Might as well switch to poker
For a 10k lateral with common practices accounted for

17. What Would a Skilled DD Want?
More accurate surveys at greater density
Robust QC data in real-time
Procedures for instrument validation

18. Technical Solutions Exist
IFR1 & Multi-station Analysis
Improve magnetic survey accuracy
Digital slidesheets and continuous inclination
Enable augmentation of survey density & curvature mapping
These are not cure-alls, they still require good practices
Getting the right data at the right time
Making sure that data is of quality

19. What Do We Really Need to Do?
Have a serious conversation about what directional drillers can deliver
Properly align incentives for true well placement (not reported well placement)
Design workflows where skill can succeed

20. Thank You