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Soil Carbon Measurement Costs and Protocols Using a Linked Economic and Biophysical Model
Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum October 9th, 2002 Siân Mooney Dept. Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wyoming
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Other Collaborators John Antle and Susan Capalbo
Dept. Agricultural Economics and Economics Montana State University Keith Paustian Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University
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Motivation C sequestration in agricultural soils C is “invisible”
Is it possible to sell? Need monitoring/measurement Possibly have large number of producers How to design monitoring/measurement Will it be too costly?
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Study Objectives Develop a measurement protocol for C credits sequestered in agricultural soils Estimate its cost for a region of the US Examine characteristics that influence measurement costs
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Influence of Contract Design
Contract design will determine monitoring and measurement needs Per-hectare contract Per-credit contract $MM=$monitoring practice+$measuring C
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Measurement Issues Several producers – cover large area
Statistical sampling $M=f(#samples,$/sample,frequency) Combine field measurements and predictive models
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Measurement - General Predictive biophysical models – estimate C
Measure baseline – statistical sampling/field samples/lab testing Measure C periodically over duration of contract Measure C at end of contract
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Measurement - Specific
Stratified random sampling Sample population – producers with contracts to supply C-credits Strata based on crop system change Cost/sample $16.37 Frequency – 4 times Years 1, 5, 10, 20.
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Study Area Field level production data
Climate, soil and biophysical characteristics
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Models parameter estimates carbon estimates
Econometric Models (output supply, input demand) Century Ecosystem Model (NREL) parameter estimates carbon estimates 1. #producers participating 2. #producers in each strata 3. Opportunity cost of system changes Land use simulation -stochastic output and input prices -policy designs and payment levels
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Cost per credit (5% , 95% confid)
Price /credit ($) Sub-MLRA 52-high Sub-MLRA 52-low Sub-MLRA 53-high MPC ($) M Cost (% of Price) 10 0.18 1.81 0.30 3.03 0.29 2.99 50 0.05 0.10 0.13 0.26 0.19 0.38 100 0.03 0.09 0.16 Price /credit ($) Sub-MLRA 53-low Sub-MLRA 58-high Sub-MLRA 58-low MPC ($) M Cost (% of Price) M Cost 10 1.05 10.57 0.14 1.39 0.29 2.92 50 0.51 1.03 0.07 0.18 0.37 100 0.39 0.05 0.13
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C Change Variability and Cost per Credit
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Cost/credit Coefficient of Variation in C Changes 52H 52L 53H 53l 58H 58L Variability Decreasing
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Conclusions Measurement costs not large enough to prevent producers from participating in C market Efficiency of measurement protocol depends on the price of credits Measurement costs largest in spatially heterogeneous areas
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Other issues Uncertainty associated with initial C change estimates (see other paper on web) Baseline – will change costs per credit
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Additional Information
Siân Mooney Dept. Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wyoming Phone:
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