1. Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Recent developments
of the RAINS model

2. Recent model development
Energy & emission databases
Modelling of deposition and its effects
Modelling of ozone and its impacts
health
Vegetation
Internet version

3. Modelling of deposition and its effects

4. Issues Source-receptor relationships for deposition
Ecosystem-specific deposition
Dynamic modelling

5. S-R relations for RAINS
Linearity of changes in PM due to changes in emissions is crucial for the mathematical design of RAINS
87 model experiments with the new EMEP model:
Response of European S/N deposition to changes in SO2, NOx, NH3, [VOC, PPM2.5/10] emissions
For German, Italian, Dutch, UK and European emissions
3 emission scenarios:
CLE (current legislation 2010) = CAFE baseline for 2010
MFR (maximum technically feasible reductions 2010
UFR (ultimately feasible reductions) = MFR/2

6. Response of total S deposition due to changes in UK SO2 emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR

7. Response of total S deposition due to changes in UK NH3 emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR

8. Response of total S deposition due to changes in all UK emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR

9. Emissions change from CLE UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Response of total oxidised N deposition due to changes in UK NOx emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR

10. Emissions change from CLE UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Response of total oxidised N deposition due to changes in UK NH3 emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR

11. Emissions change from CLE UK emissions change from CLE to MFR
Response of total oxidised N deposition due to changes in all UK emissions
Emissions change from UFR
UK emissions change from CLE to UFR
Emissions change from CLE
UK emissions change from CLE to MFR

12. Conclusion on S-R relations
Linear treatment (transfer matrices) seems sufficient
Work together with MSC-W is underway to derive coefficients
Time problem to calculate many different years

13. Eco-system specific deposition

14. Ecosystem-specific deposition
Ecosystem-specific deposition: Estimates of unprotected ecosystems in Europe for 2010:
Harmonized land-use maps:
Meeting at IIASA in March.
CDFs of CL will be delivered for forests, lakes, others.
Lagrangian model 150 km grid-average deposition
New Eulerian model 50km, grid-average deposition
New Eulerian model 50km, ecosystem- specific deposition
Acidification 3%
15 %
25 %
Eutrophication
20%
60 %
80 %

15. Excess of forest critical loads
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology

16. Estimated in 2003 with ecosystem specific deposition
Probability of deposition exceeeding critical loads for the Gothenburg 2010 ceilings, EU-15
Estimated in 2003 with ecosystem specific deposition
Estimated in 1999

17. Dynamic modelling

18. Five stages in dynamic acidification modelling
Important time factors:
Damage delay time
Recover delay time

19. Use of dynamic modelling in RAINS
Target load functions have been developed for IAM, specifying
the levels of S/N deposition
in a given year
that lead to recovery of x% of ecosystems
within y years.
Could be directly used in RAINS optimisation with x, y as policy choices.
But:
How to upscale to ecosystems without dynamic estimates?
How to reach full European coverage?
Historic base cation deposition?

20. Ozone modelling

21. Ozone modelling Health impact assessment Vegetation impacts
Regional ozone modelling
Linearity
Uncertainty
Urban ozone modelling

22. Health impacts

23. Health impacts
All epidemiological studies use Daily maximum 8-hour mean concentration as metric, often for the full year.
Different from hourly values used for AOT calculations!
Models not yet evaluated against health metric.
WHO review: Effects found below 60 ppb, no solid evidence on existence of threshold
How to treat this in an integrated assessment?

24. Critical question for IAM of O3
How certain are we about health impacts below (natural) background levels (30-40 ppb)?
Especially, if ozone is reduced below background because of (too) high NOx concentrations?
Do we expect health benefits from reductions in urban O3 through increased NOx emissions - while total oxidants (NOx + Ox) increase?

25. Example implementation
CAFE baseline energy & emission projection for 2000, 2010, 2010
EMEP Eulerian dispersion model, regional background concentrations
Mean meteorology, 1999 & 2003
No adjustment of ozone levels for urban areas (awaiting results from City-Delta)
RR from WHO meta study (1.003)
Calculation for summer, no effects for winter assumed

26. Premature deaths attributable to O3 Absolute numbers (for 6 months), with different cut-offs
30 ppb ppb ppb
Provisional estimates!

27. Reduction of premature deaths attributable to O3 compared to 2000, with different cut-offs
30 ppb ppb ppb
Provisional estimates!

28. Approach recommended by TFH7
Focus on mortality – premature deaths attributable to ozone
Will create bias, because morbidity not considered
Do not use potential impacts of ozone below background to drive policy
Use 35 ppb as cut-off
Reflects present background concentrations
Use of linear regressed RR will underestimate the effect
Consider full year
Use one “characteristic” urban concentration level

29. Premature deaths attributable to O3 Year 2000, mean meteorology, cut-off=30 ppb, percent of total deaths

30. Vegetation impacts

31. Concentration-based critical levels for ozone Source: Mapping manual
Receptor
Time period
Critical level
AOT30, ppm.h (only for IAM)
AOT40, ppm.h
Agricultural crops
3 months 4 3
Horticultural crops
4 months - 5
Forest trees
Growing season (6 months) 9
Semi-natural vegetation

32. Flux-based critical levels for ozone Source: Mapping manual
Receptor
Time period
Critical level
(AFst6)
Wheat
900 ˚C days starting 200 ˚C days before anthesis (flowering)
1 mmol/m2 projected sunlit leaf area
Potato
1130 ˚C days starting at plant emergence
5 mmol/m2 projected sunlit leaf area

33. Considerations for RAINS
Critical levels for forests are most sensitive
Use flux-based assessment for ex-post scenario analysis, concentrations-based CL for optimisation
For trees, mapping manuals leaves a choice between AOT40 and AOT30
Further analysis of advantages and disadvantages necessary

34. Statistical indicators for AOT-based CL Source: Mapping manual
Linear regression for birch and beech r2
p for the slope
p for the intercept
slope
AOT30
0.61
<0.01
0.63
AOT40
0.62
0.31

35. Source-receptor relations
Regional scale:
Linearity?
Confidence?
Urban scale

36. Response of ozone due to ΔNOx from German emissions
AOT30
AOT40

37. Response of ozone due to ΔVOC from German emissions
AOT30
AOT40

38. How much can we trust results from one model?
Euro-Delta intercomparison of regional scale models
Coordinated by JRC, IIASA, MSC-W, TNO, CONCAWE
5 models:
CHIMERE (F)
EMEP
LOTOS (NL)
MATCH (S)
REM (D)
Study model responses to emission control cases
Ensemble model

39. Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC

40. Summary of model performances
AOT30
AOT40
r2 of critical level estimates
for birch, beech
0.61
0.62
Correlation coefficient of ensemble dispersion models
0.65
Correlation coefficient of the EMEP model
0.57
0.48
Variability of model results for emission control scenarios ? ??
Linearity between CLE and MFR
???

41. Urban scale

42. Changes in urban ozone for further NOx reduction City-Delta results
AOT30
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC
AOT40
Urban O3
Population-weighted O3

43. Changes in urban ozone for further VOC reduction City-Delta results
AOT30
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC
AOT40
Urban O3
Population-weighted O3

44. Can titration be detected for long-term ozone at urban background
Can titration be detected for long-term ozone at urban background? Preliminary results from City-Delta
Difference between observed urban and background O3, annual mean O3
Graphs courtesy of Kees Cuvelier and Philippe Thunis, JRC
NOx emission density in urban domain

45. Next steps Analyze City-Delta 2 results, especially for PM
Develop functional relationships between rural and urban concentrations
Develop extension to other cities
Implement in RAINS
Final City-Delta workshop, fall 2004

46. Internet version RAINS available on the Internet Free access at: