1. 2045 Long-Range Transportation Plan:
9/1/ :22 AM
Workshop Agenda Item #15
Consent Agenda Item #23-V
2045 Long-Range Transportation Plan:
Regional Scenario Planning Framework
Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization
July 18, 2019
Dale M. Stith, AICP, GISP
Principal Transportation Planner
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2. 2045 LRTP: Current Key Milestones
Socio-economic Forecast and TAZ Allocation
Scenario Planning Framework
LRTP Vision & Goals
Collection of Candidate Projects
Scenario Planning Analysis
Project Prioritization of Candidate Projects
Develop Financial Plan
Develop Final List of Projects
2045 LRTP Adoption Date: June 2021
Current Key Milestones:
Updating Regional Travel Demand Model
Developing Vision and Goals
Collecting Candidate Projects
Project Prioritization Tool Enhancements
Scenario Planning Framework and Tools 2

3. Scenario Planning Long-Range Transportation Planning Predictive
Normative: What SHOULD Happen?
Exploratory: What COULD Happen?
Trend Lines, Expected, Probable or Baseline
Identifies Preferred Scenario: Prescriptive
Explores Uncertainties: Opportunities, Risks, Plausible Futures
A lot of unknowns
The purpose of these Scenarios is not to predict the future
The purpose is to have plausible alternative futures against which to test Transportation Alternatives
Being done in coordination with the RCS (RCS consultants developing the models, framework – will be applied to RCS and 2045 LRTP) 3

4. Exploratory Scenario Planning
Evaluate and rank projects ACROSS all scenarios
2045 Baseline Scenario
Develop Plausible Futures
Identify projects that fare best
Most cumulative benefit regardless of alternative future scenario
2045 Alternative Scenario 3
2045 Alternative Scenario 1
2045 Alternative Scenario 2
Most Robust Projects
Distinct scenarios in order to separately evaluate benefits
Instead want to identify Most ROBOST projects. HRTF – Most robust Congestion Relief projects 4

5. Modeling the Scenarios
Land Use Model
Land Use Indicators
HRTPO PROJECT PRIORITIZATION TOOL
Project Utility
Economic Vitality
Project Viability
Travel Demand Model
Transportation Indicators
Economic Model (TREDIS)
Economic Indicators
Objective
Data-driven (like our Prioritization process)
Models will interact and produce outputs to incorporate into Prioritization Tool 5

6. Regional Scenario Planning Framework
Regional Place Types
Virtual 2015
Virtual 2045
2045 Greater Growth
Scenario Narratives
Drivers
Themes
Greater Growth Control Total
Employment Growth in addition to 2045 Baseline
Check in point
Framework will drive the analysis 6

7. Regional Place Types
Unified set of data that describes regional development patterns
Existing and Future Land Use (consistent with Locality Comprehensive Plans)
Quantitative, summarizing land use, developed areas, and environmental data
Control Totals for reconciling Place Types densities
Approved 2015 and 2045 Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) Data
Help identify where growth can occur 7

8. Scenarios: Spatial Themes
What happens if jobs focus on the waterfront, housing choices are varied, and transportation technology adoption is moderate?
Greater Growth on the Water
What happens if jobs and housing focus in urban areas, with greater multimodal availability and high adoption of connected vehicle technology?
Greater Growth in Urban Centers
What happens if jobs and housing are developed in dispersed activity centers, with a higher level of truck transportation and high adoption of autonomous vehicle technology?
Greater Suburban/ Greenfield Growth
Multimodal includes walk, bike, transit, TNC 8

9. Scenario Narratives W H A T T H E S E W I L L H E L P U S T E S T
Greater Growth on the Water
Growth in water-oriented activity. Port of Virginia becomes even more competitive with freight more multimodal. More dispersed housing locations. Moderate assumptions for CAV adoption and network adaptation.
Greater Growth in Urban Centers
Significant economic diversification. Low space requirements per job. Large role for “digital port.” New professionals prefer to live/work in urban settings. High level of CV adoption and low auto ownership/high TNC mode.
Greater Suburban/ Greenfield Growth
Growth is suburban/ exurban, but growth includes walkable mixed use centers. Port of Virginia becomes even more competitive. “Digital port” brings additional jobs. Housing is more suburban. High level of AV adoption and network adaptation.
W H A T T H E S E W I L L H E L P U S T E S T
Test greater cross-harbor travel in particular.
Test more urban and multimodal travel patterns.
Test more overall regional travel.
Multimodal includes walk, bike, transit, TNC
NOTE: Sea Level Rise assumed as 3 ft. in all Scenarios 9

10. Greater Growth Control Totals
Establish a Control Total for the “Greater Growth” Alternate Scenarios to stress test transportation alternatives
The overall goal is to provide differentiation between the scenarios
Too little growth could dilute differences between scenarios
Too much growth with widespread, severe congestion could mask differences between scenarios (i.e. anything added to the network will also become congested)
Believable narratives – plausible growth
+8%
+16%
% Increase
1,027k
81k
sweet spot – move the needle, but don’t overload the system. Must be plausible. Not a prediction of the future.
Looked at: Retrospective employment growth , 2045 Baseline forecast, Alternative future growth forecasts, Exploration (e.g. Amazon HQ2)
Travel model sensitivity testing
Range: 12%-21%.
Starting with 16%. Appears to be enough to move the needle without overloading the network. Believable story line. Doubles the 2045 baseline employment growth forecast (+ another 81k jobs). 10

11. Coordination and Input
(2) Workshops
(7) Webinars
s, Conference Calls, Meetings between Locality Staff/HRTPO/HRPDC/RCS Consultants
Reviewed and Approved by:
Long-Range Transportation Plan Subcommittee
Transportation Technical Advisory Committee
Regional Connector Study Working Group
Regional Connector Study Steering Committee
Public Review and Comment Period
July 3-17, 2019 11

12. Recommended Action Approve the Regional Scenario Planning Framework
Regional Place Types
Scenario Narratives
Greater Growth Control Total for Additional 2045 Growth
Recommend starting with 16% employment growth over 2015 (this will be an additional 8% over the 2045 Baseline 8% increase)
If 16% does not produce sufficient variation/distinction among the alternative scenarios, then rate can be modified up to 21% 12