1. Poverty and Inequality Statistics: Development of Methodology in the Russian Federation
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

2. AGENDA KEY OBJECTIVES SPECIFICS OF THE NEW METHODOLOGY
EVIDENCE BASE – INCOME SURVEY AND ITS FRAMEWORK
STUDIES TO TEST THE METHODOLOGY
MAIN FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS BASED ON TEST STUDIES
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

3. Key Objectives
To introduce specialized income survey into statistical practice
To develop on its basis the information on differentiation and poverty indicators
To test consistency of both conventional and additional indicators over time
To justify the method for rapid and provisional estimates
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

4. SPECIFICS Full transition to evidence-based data in final estimates
Preservation of rapid and provisional estimates but considering them as interim (rather than the only and final) measures
Extension of indicators for poverty measurements
Introduction of relative poverty line and rate based on the OECD standards
Introduction of a two-level poverty measurement based on indicators of monetary and total household income
Extension of indicators for describing poverty profiles
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

5. SAMPLE SURVEY OF INCOME AND PARTICIPATION IN WELFARE PROGRAMMES
Coverage …..……………………….10,0 00 households in all Russian constituents,
20,400 individuals aged 16+ yrs,
4,500 children under 16 yrs
Timeframe ……… April 2012 (April 2014 and then annually covering 45, households)
During the survey:
Selected ………………… ,000 addresses
Visited …………………… 14,600 addresses
Surveyed ……………….10,000 households
Refused to respond….. 2,100 households (14%)
No contact…………….. 2,500 addresses
Dissemination of survey results :
publication on Russian Statistics Committee’s web site (summary tables, micro data);
official statistical publications
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

6. MACROECONOMIC INDICATOR
MONETARY INCOME BASED ON INCOME SURVEY VS. MACROECONOMIC MONETARY INCOME INDICATOR
INCOME SURVEY
MACROECONOMIC INDICATOR
Total monetary income
30,082,897
34,156,805
Total earned income
23,065,119
21,810,299
Remuneration
18,851,899
19,857,348
Income from self-employment
3,395,322
1,952,951
Income from other regular work activities
817,898
Total income from property
176,238
1,934,686
incl. income from real estate and other property lease
138,246
124,184
Total received transfers
6,841,540
6,514,042
Welfare benefits
5,785,217
6,494,532
including
pensions
4,344,350
4,415,547
allowances, compensations and other benefits
1,440,867
1,811,841
Monetary receipts from individuals and institutions other than welfare authorities
1,056,323
19,510
incl. alimony and other similar payments
113,386
Other income
3,897,778
Total transfers made
2,796,232
2,550,890
Income tax on wages and salaries and self-employment taxes
2,532,662
2,093,991
Property tax, duties and other obligatory payments
111,136
300,877
Property insurance payments
152,434
156,023
Disposable income
27,286,665
31,605,914
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

7. Major tasks addressed through testing
Experimental estimates of social and economic differentiation and (relative) poverty indicators under the OECD methodology obtained (based on 2008 HBS).
Estimates of social and economic differentiation and poverty indicators obtained based on income survey and validated against the data obtained earlier through a simulation model.
Data on relative poverty indicators under the OECD methodology obtained based on HBS to see its behaviour over time
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

8. Estimates of differentiation and poverty indicators using the OECD methodology
Purpose: as part of activities for Russia’s accession to the OECD to obtain relative poverty estimates using the OECD methodology for comparisons between countries.
Specifics of the methodology: the notion of equivalent income (equivalent elasticity coefficient Ɛ=0.5).
Estimates were prepared based on HBS quarterly data ( ).
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

9. Estimates based on panel and quarterly HBS data, 2008-2011
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

10. Conclusions:
HBS data provide acceptable time series for relative poverty in a year preceding income survey.
It is better to make measurements using panel HBS data to exclude bias in relative poverty estimates due to non-compliance of the reference period to the OECD requirements.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

11. Estimate based on income survey 95% confidence interval (limits)
Population whose income is below subsistence minimum threshold, by major age and sex groups, (Ɛ=1); % of total population of relevant age group
20111)
Estimate based on income survey
95% confidence interval (limits)
Нижняя
Верхняя
Total population
12.7
12.4
11.0
14.1
Children under 16 yrs
19.9
24.7
21.1
28.7
Children under 3 yrs
16.2
25.8
21.2
30.9
Children under 7 yrs
18.7
Children from 7 to 16 yrs
22.4
19.5
25.5
Working age population
12.9
10.9
male aged 16-59
12.1
11.9
10.3
13.6
female aged 16-54
13.8
13.0
11.4
14.7
Youth aged 16-30
12.8
13.2
11.5
15.2
Male aged 16-30
12.0
10.1
Female aged 16-30
14.5
12.5
16.7
Working age individuals aged 30+
10.4
13.7
Male aged 31-59
12.2
10.2
Female aged 31-54
14.0
10.6
13.9
Total elder people
6.1
3.5
2.9
4.2
Male aged 60+
5.6
2.5
1.8
Female aged 55+
6.3
3.9
3.2
4.7
1) Approved data. Estimates based on budget household surveys and macroeconomic indicator of income per capita.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

12. Absolute poverty estimates based on simulation model and direct estimates based on Income Survey and HBS (Ɛ=1)
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

13. Average income per capita, roubles per month (Ɛ=1) (2011)
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

14. Estimates of differentiation indicators
Approved data (based on the simulation model)
Based on income survey (Ɛ=1)
R/P ratio
16.2
14.4
Gini coefficient
0.417
0.391
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

15. Frequency distribution by monetary income, 2011 (based on income survey)
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

16. Employees’ frequency distribution by gross salary, 2011
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

17.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

18.
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19.
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20.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

21.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

22. Conclusions:
The pattern of distribution by level of per capita income based on Income Survey is consistent with theoretical lognormal distribution.
Absolute poverty estimates based on Income Survey confirm the reliability of the estimates obtained from the simulation model.
Income Survey can be used for evidence-based poverty and inequality measurements.
The simulation model is an acceptable instrument for provisional estimates of main poverty and inequality indicators.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

23. Conclusions (cont.):
To ensure long-term consistent dynamics of the new indicator – relative poverty – panel HBS data should be used.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

24. Population with income below subsistence minimum threshold over time
In 2000, the methodology of subsistence minimum calculation was changed.
In 2005, the structure of the consumption basket for calculating the subsistence minimum was changed.
In 2013, the procedure for calculating subsistence minimum was changed.
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

25. Share of population with income below subsistence minimum in major age groups
% of total population of a relevant age group
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total population
29.0
24.6
17.6
15.2
13.4
12.5
12.7
10.7
10.8
Children under 16 yrs
33.7
28.7
20.9
18.8
18.6
19.2
19.9
17.9
Children under 7 yrs
26.9
22.7
16.7
15.0
15.7
18.7
15.6
Children aged 7-16 yrs
36.8
31.6
23.4
21.4
20.8
20.2
21.1
19.5
20.0
Youth aged yrs
28.9
25.3
18.2
15.5
13.6
12.8
10.9
Male aged yrs
26.5
23.9
17.5
14.8
13.0
12.0
10.2
Female aged yrs
31.2
26.8
19.0
16.2
14.3
11.6
11.3
People of working age 30+ yrs
30.5
25.7
18.1
13.5
12.9
13.1
11.1
Male aged yrs
27.7
23.6
14.5
12.1
12.2
10.3
10.5
Female aged yrs
33.4
27.9
19.6
17.1
14.7
13.8
14.0
11.9
People above working age, total
17.2
12.3
8.5
6.1
5.1
5.0
Male aged 60+ yrs
16.1
11.5
10.1
8.4
5.4
5.6
4.7
4.6
Female aged 55+ yrs
21.5
17.7
10.4
8.6
6.4
6.3
5.3
5.2
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

26. Per cent of population with per capita income below:
Per cent of population with income below the international poverty line using purchasing power parity 1)
% of total population
Per cent of population with per capita income below:
For reference: per cent of population with income below subsistence minimum threshold
$1.25 per day
$2 per day
$2.5 per day
$4 per day
$5 per day
$10 per day
Russian Federation
2009
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.2
8.6
13.0
2010
12.5
2011
0.5
1.1
8.3
12.7
2012
0.4
1.0
7.3
10.7
2013
0.3
0.7
5.7
10.8
For reference2):
Brazil
3.8
6.8
9.6
20.8
27.9 …
9.0
India
23.6
59.2
73.8
91.2
99.6
21.9
China
6.3
18.6
26.9
49.1
59.9
RSA
9.4
26.2
34.2
50.3
57.3
45.5
1) World Bank
2) Source: World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Database
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015

27. THANK YOU!
Geneva, 5-6 May 2015