1. Photo ID, Provisional Balloting, and Indiana’s 2012 Primary Election
Mike Pitts
Professor

2. Category
2008
Primary
2012
Total Ballots
1,727,023
955,215
Total Provisional Ballots
2,771
618
Total ID Provisional
Ballots
446
129
Total Provisional Ballots Counted
752
100
Total ID Provisional Ballots Counted 94 26
Note: ID provisional ballots includes HAVA ID and Indiana photo ID; HAVA ID is approximately 10% of ID provisional ballots.

3. Provisional Ballots Cast as a % of Total Votes Cast 0.16% 0.06%
Category
2008
Primary
2012
Provisional Ballots Cast as a % of Total Votes Cast
0.16%
0.06%
ID-related Provisional Ballots Cast as a % of Total Votes Cast
0.026%
0.01%
ID-related Provisional Ballots Cast as a % of Total Provisional Ballots Cast
16.1%
20.8%
Total Provisional Ballots Counted as a % of Total Provisional Ballots Cast
27.1%
ID-related Provisional Ballots Counted as a % of ID-related Provisional Ballots Cast
21.1%
20.1%

4. Some qualifications . . .
How do we know that persons who cast provisional ballots were legitimate?
Doesn’t account for other ways voters might be unable to cast a countable ballots due to photo ID:
How many folks did not show up because they knew they did not have the required ID?
Lack of offer and/or acceptance of provisional ballots.
A fair number of provisional ballots don’t have paperwork that tells why provisional ballot was cast.

5. What the research suggests . . .
Suggests there are real folks who get caught up in photo ID requirement but that the number of persons who get caught up in the photo ID requirement aren’t a very large part of the overall electorate.
Might suggest that over time, photo ID problems will diminish but also could just be folks staying home; or
Might suggests a partisan skew to provisional balloting and photo ID.
2008 Primary
2012 Primary

6. Further research . . .
Perform a census of persons in Indiana who did not have ID and cast a provisional ballot.
Find out how many persons in Indiana were deterred by not having a photo ID in the first place.
Find out how many persons in Indiana didn’t have an ID and either were not offered a provisional ballot or rejected it.