1. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
State of the Inland Empire
An “Adventure”
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP

2. Inland Empire Population
Chino ,757
Chino Hills ,159
Greater Than 25 of 50 States

3. Forecasting

4. Population Forecast,
2045: 6,119,497
1,111,783

5. Educational Challenge
Chino %
Chino Hills %
Chino %
Chino Hills %

6. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!

7. Inland Empire A CA Job Engine!

8. Poverty Falling With Job Creation
Chino %
Chino Hills %
Chino %
Chino Hills %
23.5%
16.4%

9. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

10. Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
17.9%
Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
10.1%
6.9%
3.6%

11. Inflation: NOT MUCH!
3.3%
2.0%

12. A Short Term Rate Decrease?
Interest Rates:
A Short Term Rate Decrease?
4.12%
2.50%

13. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor
Recession: Likelihood An Issue
2 Year to 10 Year
0.22%

14. TARIFF MAN?

16. California Job Gains/Losses

17. CA Hollowing Out Middle Class Jobs

18. Gold Mine Theory
Secondary Tier
Primary Tier

19. Median Health Care Pay: 2018
$62,363

20. ACA & Health Care Demand
Chino %
Chino Hills %
-60% Drop in Uninsured

21. Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs ACA Attacks
2019 Forecast: 4,800
Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs
Shortage of Trained Workers
ACA Attacks

22. Logistics

23. Median Logistics Pay: 2018
$47,946

24. E-Commerce
14.5%

25. Port Container Import Volume Record Levels

26. Industrial Construction Locations

27. 2019 Forecast: 9,000
Rationale: Running Out of Land in the Valley Areas
Tariffs
Shortage of Trained Middle Managers
U.S. Growth Slowdown

28. Disappearing Available Space For Facilitiesx
Market 
500,000+
1,000,000+
High Desert
206 42
Coachella Valley 92 21
Moreno Valley/Perris
117 59
West SB Valley 45 12
Central SB Valley 49 9
East SB Valley 16 1
Southwest 15
Pass Area 23 7
Western RivCo Edge 13 3
Riverside 5
Total Remaining 
581
157
Without Deserts, Moreno Valley/Perris
166 35
23,000,000 sf under construction Dec-2018

29. ONT Airport Cargo
Another Record Volume
12.4%
0.9%

30. ONT Airport Passengers
1989 Level
12.4%
4.6%
Population: up 2.4 million or 108.2% to 4.6 million
Job Level: up 864,502 or % to 1,512,194
Companies: up 75,133 or % to 75,133

31. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay
$54,800

32. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

33. CA Electrical Cost
+88.0%
+127.8%

34. Marijuana?

35. 2019 Forecast: 1,000
Rationale: Regulation & CA Electrical Costs
Tariffs
Shortage of Replacement Skilled Workers
U.S. Growth Slowdown

36. Median Construction Pay: 2018
$53,322

37. Home Prices Chino $541,000 Chino $497,000 Chino Hills $1,054,000
+4.2%
-9.4%

38. Price Competition
Highest Price Gaps In History

39. Housing Unaffordability

40. Home Sales & Construction: Lack of Growth

41. 2019 Forecast: 6,000
Rationale: Difficulty Permitting Lots
CA Environmental Quality Act
Very High Prices, Low Volume, Lack of Supply
Shortage of Skilled Craft Workers

42. Median Private High-End Pay: 2018
$76,202

43. Median Government Pay: 2018
$63,499

44. Home Volume: No Growth

45. Assessed Valuation Chino $13.4 billion; Up 9.7%
Chino Hills $12.3 billion; Up 6.3%
2008 peak to 2018
AV in RivCo up 16.9%
AV in SBCo up 21.9%
Inflation Up 16.0%

46. Taxable Sales Chino $2.5 billion; 9.6% Chino Hills $0.7 billion: 10.4%
RivCo Up 21.2%
SBCo Up 21.9%
Inflation Up 21.7%

47. 2019 Forecast: 3,500
Rationale: Education Gap To Coastal Counties
Government Tax Revenue Difficulty (internet)

48. Median Moderate Paying & Real Estate, Finance, Education Jobs: 2018
$57,109

49. 2019 Forecast: 3,900
Rationale: Banks Hiring Less
Real Estate Sales Not Growing
School Budget Growth May Slow

50. Population Serving Sectors
High End Consumers
Still Doing Well
E-commerce death
3rd Strongest Inland Sector

51. Population Serving Sector Pay: 2018
$32,177

52. Median Household Income, 2017 Deducting Housing Costs Above IE
Chino $72,369
Chino Hills $99,763

53. 2019 Forecast: 9,900
Rationale: E-Commerce Hurts Retailing
Lack of Available Workers (4.2% Unemployment)
Workers Going to Logistics

54. Looking Ahead

55. 2019 Forecast
2019 = 38,200 v = 49,300
Growth 2.52% %
Unemployment 4.2% %
2018 = 49,300
Growth %
Unemployment %