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Published byLuciana Fidalgo Modified over 5 years ago
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The Irish economic and consumer outlook Retail Ireland Annual Conference May 23rd Fergal O’Brien Chief Economist
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International markets’ confidence in Ireland returned and successful exit from EU-IMF bailout increasingly likely
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85% of austerity has been delivered…..
Adjustments in public finances to date % GDP July 2008-April 2009 €10.5 bn Budget 2010 €4.3 bn 2.8 Budget 2011 €6.0 bn 3.8 Budget 2012 €3.8 bn 2.4 Budget 2013 €3.5 bn 2.1 Total to date €28.1 bn Adjustments planned Budget 2014 €3.1 bn 1.8 Budget 2015 €2.0 bn 1.1 Total planned €8.6 bn TOTAL €33.2 bn
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Exports continued to drive GDP growth in 2012, but evidence of some rebalancing also
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IBEC economic forecasts 2013/’14
% change 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumer Spending -2.4 -0.9 0.0 1.0 Investment -12.6 1.2 7.1 9.6 Exports 5.1 2.9 3.0 4.0 GDP 1.4 0.9 1.8 2.5 GNP -2.5 3.4 1.9 Inflation (CPI) 2.6 1.7 1.3 Unemployment (%) 14.6 14.7 13.9 13.3
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Private sector employment returned to growth during 2012
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Consumer sentiment strengthened during 2012, but subdued in recent months
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Domestic economy improved in H2 2012 but tough Q1
***Electrical goods in particular received a boost thanks to the summer sporting events and digital switchover.
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Consumer fundamentals improving – particularly incomes
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Irish households by type
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Spending power improving marginally in 2013
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