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Comparison of model results with measurements

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Presentation on theme: "Comparison of model results with measurements"— Presentation transcript:

1 Comparison of model results with measurements
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Comparison of model results with measurements Sergey Dutchak EMEP/MSC-E EMEP/MSC-E

2 Main goals of comparison of modelling/monitoring data
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Main goals of comparison of modelling/monitoring data Model validation Emission testing Selection of measurements for comparison Evaluation of pollution levels in the EMEP region on the basis of monitoring/modelling data (assimilation of measurements) EMEP/MSC-E

3 Monitoring of HMs and POPs
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Monitoring of HMs and POPs POPs: 13 sites HMs: 63 sites - In air - In Precip - Air + Precip EMEP/MSC-E

4 Criteria to select measurements:
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Criteria to select measurements: Sites are used in validation if: recommended by CCC at least, 7-10 years in period –2002 are available (for trend analysis) precipitation amounts in model and at the site differ < 1.5 times ( ~70 % of sites selected ) EMEP/MSC-E

5 Model output Annual concentration and deposition level
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Model output Annual concentration and deposition level Seasonal (monthly) variations Short-term episodes (days) Long-term trends Deposition to different underlying surface xx(forests, mosses, etc.) Concentrations in different environmental media (soil, seawater, vegetation) Transboundary transport Evaluation of new substances Projections Comparison with measurements Working Group on Effects EMEP/MSC-E

6 (closer to measurements)
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Model output – 2002 Pb depositions using official emissions (underestimated) Pb depositions using expert emissions (closer to measurements) EMEP/MSC-E

7 Measurements of Pb in air for 2002
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Measurements of Pb in air for 2002 GB14 GB90 GB91 FI96 NO99 DK31 DE1 DE4 CZ1 SK7 SK5 SK2 SK4 SK6 LV16 DE9 DK8 NL9 ng/m3 EMEP/MSC-E

8 Computed vs. measured Pb in air, 2002
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Computed vs. measured Pb in air, 2002 GB14 GB90 GB91 FI96 NO99 DK31 DE1 DE4 CZ1 SK7 SK5 SK2 SK4 SK6 LV16 DE9 DK8 NL9 ng/m3 Official emission of Pb for 2002: 16 kt/y Model underestimates measurements by factor ~3 EMEP/MSC-E

9 Monitoring / Modelling approach
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Monitoring / Modelling approach GB14 GB90 GB91 FI96 NO99 DK31 DE1 DE4 CZ1 SK7 SK5 SK2 SK4 SK6 LV16 DE9 DK8 NL9 ng/m3 Expert emission of Pb for 2002: 39 kt/y Differences between computed and measured values within 50% EMEP/MSC-E

10 Pb model results for 2002 vs measurements
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Pb model results for 2002 vs measurements Emission expert estimates: 39 kt/y Annual concentration in precipitation Annual air concentrations MOD = 0.89 x OBS R = 0.93 4 8 12 16 20 Observed, ng/m 3 Modelled, ng/m MOD = 0.98 x OBS R = 0.66 1 2 3 4 5 Observed, ng / L Modelled, ng / L R - correlation coefficient. Dashed lines - factor-of-2 EMEP/MSC-E

11 Danish uncertainty estimates, 2002
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Danish uncertainty estimates, 2002 Pollutant Uncertainty Total emission, % SO2 9 NOx 33 TSP* 279 Cd 234 Hg 198 Pb 288 B[a]P 969 * - the base year for PM is 2000 EMEP/MSC-E

12 The dashed lines - factor 2 (logarythmic scale)
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Comparison of modelling and monitoring data, (emissions expert estimates) Factor 2 – 85% Correlation – 0.7 Factor 2 – 74% Correlation – 0.6 Pb Cd Air conc. Air conc. The dashed lines - factor 2 (logarythmic scale) EMEP/MSC-E

13 Temporal trend: monitoring and modelling, Cd
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Temporal trend: monitoring and modelling, Cd Air concentrations, 1990 – 2001, ng/m3 NO99 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 air concentrations, ng/m 3 Obs Mod EMEP/MSC-E

14 Comparison of annual means for Pb, 1990-2000 (for individual sites)
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Comparison of annual means for Pb, (for individual sites) Concentrations in precipitation, mg/l Concentrations in air, ng/m3 2 4 6 8 1990 1995 2000 Obs Mod DE4 12 16 20 DE1 EMEP/MSC-E

15 Comparison on monthly basis for Cd
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Comparison on monthly basis for Cd DE1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Obs Mod ng/m 3 Cd air concentrations at site DE1 Correlation coefficient = 0.63 EMEP/MSC-E

16 Spatial distribution of air concentrations (Pb, 1990)
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Spatial distribution of air concentrations (Pb, 1990) Mean values : Observed: 22.9 MSCE-HM: 19.1 Mean annual lead air concentrations, ng/m3 Expert estimates of Pb emissions for 1990 were used: 48 kt (ESQUAD, 1994) EMEP/MSC-E

17 Spatial distribution of air concentrations (Pb, 1996)
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Spatial distribution of air concentrations (Pb, 1996) 5 10 15 20 25 30 C S 1 3 D E 4 7 8 9 K G B I L T V 6 N O 2 Air concentration, ng/m Observed Calculated Regression: MOD=0.83xOBS Correlation: 0.78 Expert emissions of Pb for 1996 were used: 32.7 kt (based on data of Pacyna, 1999) EMEP/MSC-E

18 Model output for critical loads approach
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Model output for critical loads approach Pb depositions official emissions Pb depositions expert emissions EMEP/MSC-E

19 Comparison of Hg and POPs at different temporary scales
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Comparison of Hg and POPs at different temporary scales annual concentration of TGM in air, 2002 monthly mean TGM concentration in air, 2002 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 DE2 DE9 NO42 NO99 SE14 Air concentration, ng/m 3 Observed Modelled Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Air concentrationr, ng/m EMEP/MSC-E

20 Hourly TGM concentrations, 1995 episode
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Hourly TGM concentrations, episode Neuglobsow site (Germany) 26 June – 7 July, 1995 EMEP/MSC-E

21 Daily TPM concentrations, 1999 episode
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Daily TPM concentrations, episode Zingst site (Germany) 1-14 November, 1999 EMEP/MSC-E

22 Comparison of computed and measured B[a]P air concentrations
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 German-Canadian Project “Quality of measuring data on atmospheric inputs of POPs” Comparison of computed and measured B[a]P air concentrations Annual B[a]P concentrations for Monthly B[a]P concentrations for 2000 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ng/m 3 Rorvik (SE2) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ng/m 3 Measured Calculated Kosetice (CZ3) EMEP/MSC-E

23 Concentrations in precipitation
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 German-Canadian Project “Quality of measuring data on atmospheric inputs of POPs” Comparison of computed and measured B[a]P concentrations in precipitation 1999, 2000 and 2002 (annual averages) Concentrations in precipitation Wet deposition flux 2 4 6 8 10 12 Measured, ng/l Calculated, ng/l 3 9 15 18 Measured, ng/m /day Calculated, ng/m EMEP/MSC-E

24 German-Canadian Project “Quality of measuring data on atmospheric inputs of POPs”
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Comparison of computed and measured B[a]P concentrations in precipitation DE 5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ng/l Without funnel rinse With funnel rinse Calculated DE 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ng/l Without funnel rinse With funnel rinse Calculated EMEP/MSC-E

25 Comparison of computed and measured g-HCH air concentrations
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 German-Canadian Project “Quality of measuring data on atmospheric inputs of POPs” Comparison of computed and measured g-HCH air concentrations Monthly -HCH concentrations for 2000 Annual -HCH concentrations for 2 4 6 8 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec pg/m 3 Measured Calculated 20 40 60 80 100 CZ3 NO42 EMEP/MSC-E

26 Measured and calculated monthly mean g-HCH in precipitation for 2000
German-Canadian Project “Quality of measuring data on atmospheric inputs of POPs” TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Measured and calculated monthly mean g-HCH in precipitation for 2000 Lindane official emission data, 2000 Measured, ng/l Calculated, ng/l 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec BE4 NO99 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DE1 5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec NL91 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EMEP/MSC-E

27 Measured and calculated monthly mean g-HCH in precipitation for 2000
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Measured and calculated monthly mean g-HCH in precipitation for 2000 Lindane expert emission data, 2000 Measured, ng/l Calculated, ng/l BE4 NO99 DE1 NL91 Model experiment based on expert estimates of lindane emissions EMEP/MSC-E

28 Monitoring / Modelling approach
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Monitoring / Modelling approach GB14 GB90 GB91 FI96 NO99 DK31 DE1 DE4 CZ1 SK7 SK5 SK2 SK4 SK6 LV16 DE9 DK8 NL9 EMEP/MSC-E

29 Final remarks Comparison of monitoring/modelling data allows:
TFMM, Zagreb, April 2005 Final remarks Comparison of monitoring/modelling data allows: to verify model output to test and optimize emission data to select representative measurement data and finally, based on coupling monitoring and modelling data, to provide reliable information on pollution levels in the EMEP region. To be discussed at the EMEP/TFMM Workshop (13 – 14 October 2005, Moscow) EMEP/MSC-E

30 EMEP/TFMM Workshop on the review of the MSC-E models on HMs and POPs
DRAFT CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION EMEP/TFMM Workshop on the review of the MSC-E models on HMs and POPs  13-14 October 2005, Moscow, Russia Thursday, 13 October Plenary session  1.   Brief information on MSC-E-HM and MSC-POP models (detailed description of MSC-E models, including sensitivity study was reported at the TFMM-6)

31 2.   Current state of measurement data (concentration in air and precipitation, concentration in sea, soil and vegetations, measurements available under WGE, quality assurance and accuracy,…) 3. Current state of emission data (official emission data and expert estimates, spatial distribution, seasonal variations, historical trends, verification procedure, uncertainties,…) Working Groups on HMs and POPs Topics for consideration at the WG on HMs and WG on POPs:  - intercomparison of HM and POP models, involving national experts - comparison between modeling results and observations - ability of models to fit the purposes: concentration and deposition fields, long-term trends, ecosystem-dependent deposition, source-receptor relationships for Cd, Pb, Hg and PCBs, B[a]P, PCDD/F - monitoring-modelling approach

32 Friday, 14 October Working group on HMs and Working Group on POPs (continuation) Plenary session - Outcome of two Working Groups (progress, problems, future research) - Conclusions, recommendations - Draft minutes of the Workshop

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