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Country typology and the implications for trade/food security linkages

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1 Country typology and the implications for trade/food security linkages
Alan Matthews Presentation to FAO Informal Consultation to identify the key issues and results on the Relationship between Trade and Food Security 12-13 March 2015, Rome

2 Conceptual issues Food security fundamentally about the food and nutrition status of individuals or households Framework used is Sen’s entitlements approach Translate this approach to the national level (Stevens et al, 2014) Countries can acquire food through various entitlements Production entitlements reflect the food that can be produced domestically Trade entitlements reflect the ability of a country to earn sufficient foreign exchange with exports to purchase imported food Transfer entitlements cover food acquired either directly through food aid or indirectly by imports financed by financial aid

3 Strong interest in country classifications
Valdés & McCalla (1999), updated Valdés & Foster (2012) Stevens (2000); Stevens et al. (2002) Diaz-Bonilla et al (2000) Ruffer (2002) Kasteng et al. (2004) Diaz-Bonilla and Ron (2010) Yu et al. (2010)

4 Statistical issues Data often missing for the most food-insecure countries Fragile states, states in conflict Wide variety of national food security indicators, which often do not tell the same story Possibility of multi-dimensional indices (e.g. Global Hunger Index) or statistical approaches to reduce the number of dimensions Whether we are interested in levels, or performance over time

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6 Good and bad food security performers, 1995-2012

7 Example of pivot table outcome for a food security tree classified by dependence on agriculture

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9 Food security performance by import dependence
Derived from share of food imports in total merchandise export earnings Average of Prevalence of undernourishment(%) Average of Prevalence of undernourishment Average of Change in undernourishment prevalence, % points, High food import dependence 27.1 20.4 -7.1 Moderate food import dependence 22.9 17.0 -5.9 Low food import dependence 18.6 13.1 -5.2 Food exporter 17.2 12.8 -4.5

10 Food security performance by trade status
Average of Prevalence of undernourishment(%) Average of Prevalence of undernourishment Average of Change in undernourishment prevalence, % points, Food importers 23.0 16.9 -6.1 High food security 5.8 4.8 -1.0 Upper middle food security 15.1 11.1 -4.0 Middle food security 23.7 13.0 -10.7 Low food security 32.9 26.1 -6.8 Lowest food security 50.8 38.3 -12.6 Food exporters 17.2 12.8 -4.4 4.9 3.4 -1.5 14.9 15.6 0.6 23.9 17.0 -6.9 30.0 13.5 -16.5 40.4 33.8 -6.7

11 Similarities and contrasts
Country Food exporter/ importer Income status Food security status PUN % Change PUN% Indonesia Exporter Lower-mid Upper-mid 15.7 -7.1 Côte d'Ivoire 13.5 7.9 Burundi Importer Low Lowest 58.5 14.6 Rwanda 62.2 -33.3 Senegal Lower.mid Middle 26.1 -5.6 Swaziland 23.8 3.2 Malawi 33.0 -9.9 Zambia 37.4 10.0

12 Conclusions Whíle purpose of many clustering methods is to identify similarities between countries, idea of this sequential hierarchical method is to emphasise contrasts Purely descriptive tool, can suggest relationships, cannot draw inferences but can disprove myths Very different food security trajectories unlikely to be explained by single variables such as trade status


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