1. Food Affordability Barometer Associate Parliamentary Food and Health Forum
19th March 2013
Siôn Roberts, Senior Partner
European Food and Farming Partnerships

2. Food Affordability Barometer

3. Earnings and inflation

4. Economic focus moves East
China rebounding?
Huge implications:
Increased global demand for food
Demand for commodities

5. Pressures on agri-food
A perfect storm?
“We are at a unique moment in history as diverse factors converge to affect the demand, production and distribution of food over the next 20 to 40 years. The needs of a growing world population will need to be satisfied as critical resources such as water, energy and land become increasingly scarce. The food system must become sustainable, whilst adapting to climate change and substantially contributing to climate change mitigation”.
Sir John Beddington
Government Chief Scientist

6. UK cereal yields

7. A permanent shift upwards in real prices?
World grain price
A permanent shift upwards in real prices?
Great ‘grain robbery’
First
world war
Second
Great Depression
The perfect storm
1970s oil shock

8. Food inflation rising
Source: EFFP’s food inflation model

9. UK food prices in real terms
Source: EFFP’s food inflation model

10. Food Affordability Barometer

11. Food Affordability Barometer

12. Food Affordability Barometer Associate Parliamentary Food and Health Forum
19th March 2013
Siôn Roberts, Senior Partner
European Food and Farming Partnerships