1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Feb. 20, 2019
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

3. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

6. Arable land

7. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

11. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
176.4
176.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,609
14,420
14,930
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
1,735
Imports 67 57 36 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,939
16,600
16,715
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,304
5,375
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,605
5,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,451
1,465
1,490
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,450
2,425
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,799
14,865
15,190
Ending Stocks
1,525
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.60
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 11 11

12. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.2
89.2
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
51.6
50.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,412
4,544
4,090
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438
910
Imports 24 22 20 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,735
5,002
5,025
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,090
2,075
Seed & Residual
122
146
113
127
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
1,875
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,297
4,092
4,277
Ending Stocks
748
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
8.75
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 12 12

13. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

14. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

15. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

16. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: