1. Voting, Campaigns, and Elections
President Barack Obama waves to supporters on November 7, 2012, after being elected for a second term.

2. Elections and Democracy
Why are elections fundamental to democratic politics?
Elections are the means by which citizens control the government. Think about how many of the major struggles in U.S. history have been over who has the right to vote. The key to popular control in a democratic regime is voting for your representatives in government. Or is it? In this chapter we’ll consider whether elections really bring about popular control of government.
Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model
Electoral Competition Voting Model
Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model
Imperfect Electoral Democracy

3. Prospective (or Responsible Party) Voting Model
The theory behind this model is simple: Voters should have a real choice in elections. Political parties should stand for different policies, the voters should choose between them, and the winning party should carry out its mandate. This model assumes that voters are interested in what government will do in the future, and are capable of making decisions about it.
This model assumes that the parties stand for something, that they are cohesive and unified and capable of taking clear policy stands that differentiate them from each other, and that voters can perceive these differences. It also presumes that parties will do what they say they’ll do if they win.
The stark dichotomy presented in this model makes for intense conflict between the parties and heated elections. It also leads to gridlock when different parties control different areas of government. Finally, there is a possibility that voters will agree with some policies of a party but not others, and the party may focus on implementing policies that don’t reflect voters’ priorities.
Theory
Parties must be cohesive and unified
Parties must take different policy stands
Voters must perceive these policy stands
Winning party must do what it said
Potential Problems
Intense, heated conflict
Gridlock
Priorities

4. Voting in the United States
What are the requirements for an election to be considered democratic? For one thing, participation must be at high levels. Second, the principle of political equality can’t be violated. That is, participation can’t vary by social groups, such as race, gender, income, occupation, religion, ethnicity, or location.
Expansion of the Franchise
Low Voting Turnout
White male suffrage
Property, taxpaying, and religion barriers
Dropped by 1829

5. 10.
At the polls
As this depiction of the presidential election of 1824 shows, only white men could vote at that time. Elections were poorly organized, and travel to polling stations was difficult. How did limitations on who could vote shape government policies?

6. Expansion of the Franchise
The Fifteenth Amendment, passed in 1870, gave black males the right to vote, but the South effectively disfranchised blacks until the Voting Rights Act of Women received the right to vote in 1920, after a long, hard-fought battle. In 1971, the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18.
In addition to the gradual expansion of the franchise, another trend has been toward more direct election of government officials. Today, presidential electors are themselves elected rather than being chosen by state legislatures. Senators, too, have been directly elected by the people rather than chosen by state legislatures since the Seventeenth Amendment was ratified in 1913.
Blacks, women, and young people
Fifteenth Amendment (1870)
Voting Rights Act (1965)
Nineteenth Amendment (1920)
Direct partisan elections
Presidential electors elected
Seventeenth Amendment (1913)

7. Low Voting Turnout Barriers to voting Registration
Turnout in American elections is lower than in most other democratic countries. Slightly more than half of those who are eligible vote in presidential elections, and even fewer than that vote in midterm elections. Why do so few Americans vote compared to citizens in other democracies?
The first reason for lower turnout is the hassles of voter registration in America. In most other democracies, registration is automatic. In the U.S., citizens must register to vote and re-register each time they move. Many people simply don’t bother. Studies have shown that voting levels are higher in states that make registration easier, but a law passed by the federal government to enable people to register when they renewed their driver’s licenses increased registration but didn’t increase turnout.
Other reforms to ease registration and voting have been proposed, but the strongest movement today is actually to make voting harder. Republicans have sought to make registration more difficult, most notably with requirements for picture ID. These moves may be meant to target voters who are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.
Barriers to voting
Registration
“Motor Voter” law (1996)
Picture ID requirements

8. Low Voting Turnout Too much complexity
Another reason for voters to stay home is that they’re overwhelmed by the number of ballot choices they must make—voting for federal, state, and local candidates for many offices, as well as on trickily worded ballot questions. Furthermore, voting on a weekday is out of the question for some hard-working Americans.
Yet another reason is that elections in many jurisdictions aren’t competitive. Most states are red or blue, with electoral votes up for grabs in only a few swing states. Most incumbents are in “safe” districts that are reliably Republican or Democratic in their voting habits.
Local parties used to get out the vote using door-to-door canvassing. This practice has largely died out, although it has seen a slight revival since the 2008 election.
What other factors might affect turnout? It’s possible that increasing cynicism about politics is leading to increased voter apathy. What do you think?
Too much complexity
Decline in competitive elections
Weak voter mobilization by local parties
Other possibilities

9. FIGURE 10.2: Rise and fall of turnout in presidential elections, 1789-2012
Why did turnout rise dramatically in the nineteenth century but decline in the twentieth?

10. Why is voter turnout lower in America than in most other democratic countries?
Try to answer this review question about low voter turnout in the United States.
Registration can be a hassle
Many elections are not competitive
Elections are held on a weekday
All of the above

11. Who Votes? Income and Education Race and Ethnicity Age Gender
Not all American citizens are equally likely to vote. Some demographic groups are substantially more or less likely to vote than others.
Income and Education
Race and Ethnicity
Age
Gender
Does It Matter Who Votes?

12. Income and Education Higher income = more likely to vote
The higher your income, and the more years of formal education you have, the more likely you are to vote. In fact, education is the most important factor determining whether people vote.
Why is this? It could be that more educated people know more about politics and are more confident in their political efficacy. They may also find the barriers to registration and voting easier to overcome.
Higher income = more likely to vote
More years of education = greater likelihood of voting
Chief indicator
Why the correlation?

13. Race and Ethnicity Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote
African Americans now vote at nearly equal levels to whites. The small gap that remains is explained by differences in income and education rather than race.
Latinos have historically had low participations rates. In addition to the barriers of income and education faced by black voters, Latino voters also have a language barrier, which may partly explain their lower voter registration rates.
Latino participation is increasing. Close to 50% of eligible Latinos voted in 2008, and in 2012 they turned out and enthusiastically voted, helping to re-elect Barack Obama.
Even so, voter registration numbers for Hispanics in some battleground states are still fairly low.
Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites vote
Gaps due to income, education
Latino voting increasing
Low income, language barriers
Fewer eligible voters registered

14. FIGURE 10.3: Congressional election turnout by social group, 2012 elections
Age, education, race, ethnicity, income, and gender all affect voting behavior. Members of certain social groups are more likely to vote in elections than others. Which groups are the most and least likely to vote?

15. Age Older = more likely to vote Why low turnout for youth?
The older you are, the more likely you are to vote. Turnout in elections is consistently higher among those over 65 and lowest for those 25 and under. Turnout increases with age for a variety of reasons. Younger people tend to be more mobile, less rooted in their communities, and less in the habit of voting. They are less familiar with registration and voting procedures and not as clear about what stake they have in the election as voters who are tied to a career, a house, or a family. What are the policy consequences of the demographics of voter participation?
Older = more likely to vote
Turnout highest for over 65 age group
Lowest for under 25 age group
Why low turnout for youth?
Less rooted in communities
Less in habit of voting
Less clear on stakes of election
Less familiar with procedures

16. Mobilizing the youth vote
Here college Democrats at Boston University register students to vote in the upcoming national elections, trying to match in 2012 the high turnout of the youth vote that occurred in 2008 and was so helpful to Democrats.

17. Gender 10.4 Gender gap disappeared by 1980s
After women gained the vote in 1920, they initially voted at lower rates than men, but by the 1980s the gender gap had closed and now women are actually slightly more likely than men to vote.
The increase in women’s political participation has paralleled women’s greater educational and income attainments.
Gender gap disappeared by 1980s
Women vote at higher rates than men
Progress in gender equality responsible
Education, income
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18. Does It Matter Who Votes?
So, does it matter who votes and who doesn’t? Some studies of non-voters have shown that their preferences didn’t differ from those who did vote and so wouldn’t change electoral results.
But more careful research has demonstrated conclusively that nonvoters are more likely to be poor and that the policy preferences of the poor and the wealthy are quite different. In countries where the poor are more likely to vote, governments enact policies that reflect their needs and viewpoint. Non-participation by the poor in the U.S. has a dramatic effect on government policy.
Do policy preferences of non-voters differ?
Misleading studies showed they do not
Demographics differ
Poor are non-voters

19. Which hypothetical citizen is most likely to vote?
Let’s answer this question based on what we’ve learned so far about who votes and who doesn’t. ANSWER IS B.
A white man with a high school diploma
A black woman with a graduate degree
A white man with a college degree
A Latino woman with a GED
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20. Gaining the Nomination
If you want to run for the office of president, you must first seek your party’s nomination in a primary campaign. Sitting presidents are their party’s presumptive nominees. Nominees are selected in primary elections and caucuses, which choose delegates to go to each party’s convention. One in five delegates are superdelegates, chosen by the party leadership to balance the more extreme delegates.
In order to have a serious chance of winning your party’s nomination, it helps to be a wealthy, older, white male. Governors, members of Congress, and vice presidents have all used their positions as stepping stones to the presidency. It’s usually the most mainstream party candidate who wins the nomination, although extreme candidates further to the left or right can stay in the primary race for a while if they have rich backers.
A candidate has to think about a run for the presidency two to three years ahead of time, testing the waters and forming an exploratory committee, and, later, a fully-fledged campaign organization with extensive fund-raising capabilities. Raising money early in the primary is key to making a serious play for the nomination. Most candidates in the twenty-first century don’t use public financing because they can raise more on their own than the limits they would have to accept if they availed themselves of public funds.
Who has a chance?
Sitting president presumptive nominee
Rich, older white men
Governors and Congressmen, VPs
Mainstream
Getting started
Exploratory committee 2-3 years out
Fund-raising and public financing

21. Gathering votes
Mitt Romney asks a potential voter in New Hampshire for support in the Republican presidential primary. Must candidates engage in retail politics to get votes or would advertising suffice?

22. Gaining the Nomination
Some states allow all voters to vote in primary elections, but a majority have closed primaries, in which only registered party members can vote. It’s important for candidates to make a good showing in early primaries to establish momentum that will help them fund raise and get media coverage.
Because of the exaggerated importance of early primaries, states have been scheduling their primaries earlier and earlier, to the point of incurring delegate penalties, which they contend are worth it.
Presidential primaries and caucuses
Open or closed primaries
Early wins establish momentum
Front-loading primaries

23. Public face of party conventions
Are party conventions still necessary? Some say that the impression conveyed by political conventions can have an important impact on elections, but is that still true today? Might there be an easier way to certify each party’s nominee? Do conventions still exist because of their pep-rally appeal?

24. General Election Campaign
10.5
General Election Campaign
The general election campaign is different from the primary campaign. It used to begin after the party conventions but now informally commences as soon as each party’s nominee is known. Candidates spend virtually all their time and money in key battleground states. They run negative ads vilifying their opponent and use micro-targeting techniques to identify and communicate with base supporters and persuadable voters who might be convinced to vote for the candidate.
What kind of information are candidates trying to convey to voters? Candidates take stands on major issues that are designed to appeal to the average voter. In recent years, as the parties have polarized, these stands are moving further apart. Candidates play on the tendency toward retrospective voting by criticizing the record of the incumbent or playing up their accomplishments. But mainly candidates seek to bolster their personal image and tear down the image of their opponent. Issues take a back seat to image, and voters are easily fooled. Advertising, consultants, and money readily overcome the popular will.
Getting the campaign up and running
Campaign begins earlier today
Focus on battleground states
Attack ads
Micro-targeting
Informing voters
Issues
Past performance
Personal characteristics

25. Obama on the campaign trail
Until the early years of the twentieth century, it was considered unseemly for a sitting president to campaign for his own reelection. Modern presidents, such as Barack Obama in 2012, are deeply engaged in their campaigns. Why did this change occur?

26. FIGURE 10.4: Growth in spending in presidential elections
Why has spending in presidential elections increased so dramatically in the twenty-first century?
Elections cost increasingly huge sums of money. In the 2012 election, federal candidates spent over $6 billion, an increase from the $5.3 billion spent in 2008.

27. Money in General Elections
Hard money refers to contributions made directly to candidates. Such contributions are regulated by the Federal Election Commission, and they’re limited by law. But corporations, unions, wealthy individuals, and advocacy groups can spend unlimited amounts of money on campaign advertising provided that they do it alone, without traceable collaboration with the campaign.
Individuals are the main hard money contributors. They are limited to contributions of $2,500 per candidate per election, but small contributions add up; 55% of Obama’s 2008 funds came from individuals contributing $200 or less.
Wealthy candidates can use an unlimited amount of their personal funds for their campaigns. PACs raise money from business firms, unions, membership organizations, or liberal and conservative advocacy groups to spend on campaigns. The role of parties in campaigns has decreased but they still provide a variety of important campaign services and contribute money to campaigns.
As mentioned earlier, presidential candidates are refusing public money so consistently that this funding option is effectively dead.
Hard money
Individuals
Candidates
Political Action Committees (PACs)
Political parties

28. TABLE10.1: Hard money contribution limits 2013-2014
How do PACs circumvent contribution limits?

29. Money in General Elections
As mentioned earlier, presidential candidates are refusing public money so consistently that this funding option is effectively dead.
The 527 and 501 organizations, named after their sections of the tax code, have sprung up to circumvent the ban on soft money contributions to parties. They can spend unlimited amounts of money and have come to play a major role in campaigns.
Public funding
Other money
527s
501s

30. Getting “Swift Boated”
In the 2004 presidential campaign, 527 advocacy organizations became very important, mostly by running attack ads. One of the most effective was the Swift Boat group, which attacked Democratic candidate John Kerry’s war record, calling his wartime awards and citations “dishonest and dishonorable.” Why is it so easy for 527s to run attack ads?

31. Money in General Elections
Super PACs are nonprofit entities, usually organized as 527s that can accept unlimited amounts in donations from corporations, unions, groups, and individuals. They can use these monies to advocate for and against candidates, though, unlike PACs, they can’t give money directly to candidates. They became the major player in the 2012 election.
The role of money in American elections is pernicious. Money grants donors access and influence with elected officials, and donors are wealthier and more conservative than average citizens. They don’t represent minorities or the poor, and the result is political inequality on a grand scale.
Other money
Super PACs-Play an increasingly significant role.
Does money talk?
Money grants access
Money grants influence
Money-givers have different interests

32. How Voters Decide Social characteristics Party loyalties Candidates
How do voters pick candidates? Social characteristics are a major determinant of voter choice. People’s socioeconomic status, place of residence, religion, ethnic backgrounds, gender, and age are intimately related to how they vote.
Party loyalty is also a factor in voter choice. Party acts as a shortcut for voters to select candidates whose views are closest to their own without having to learn about the candidates as individuals.
Voters also pay a lot of attention to their perceptions of the personal characteristics of candidates. They vote heavily for candidates who have experience, appear strong and decisive, and convey personal warmth. This emphasis on image over issues has enabled Republican candidates to win some races at times when Democratic party membership was higher.
But voters do pay some attention to issues, and this usually manifests in retrospective voting.
Social characteristics
Major determinant of voter choice
Party loyalties
Shortcut
Candidates
Image over substance
Issues
Retrospective voting

33. Presidential vote in 2012, by social group
Minorities, urbanites, young people, liberals, and women voted strongly for Democrat Barack Obama in the 2012 election, while Protestants, regular church-goers, rural people, conservatives, and men favored Republican Mitt Romney.

34. Electoral College Winner-take-all in most states
Most states allocate all of their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote in that state. Maine and Nebraska apportion electoral votes by congressional district. The winner of the most electoral votes becomes president. This candidate may not be the winner of the popular vote nationwide, as was the case in 2000 when George W. Bush won the Electoral College vote but Al Gore won the popular vote.
The Electoral College affects American elections in certain important ways. For one, it magnifies the popular support of winners. A candidate who wins in many states by a narrow margin can win a “landslide” in the Electoral College. And a candidate who lost the popular vote has won the election on at least three occasions. Our winner-take-all system already discourages third parties, but the Electoral College adds to their disadvantage. A third party candidate can win a fair percentage of the vote, but if he doesn’t win a plurality of the vote in any one state, he can end up with zero electoral votes despite his popularity.
Winner-take-all in most states
Except Maine and Nebraska
Features of Electoral College
Magnifies popular support of winners
May let less popular candidate win
Discourages third parties

35. TABLE 10.2: Election results, 1980-2012
In which presidential elections has a third party candidate affected the result?
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36. Discussion Questions
Do elections ensure popular control of government? Why or why not? How does who votes and who doesn’t vote influence the type of government policies we get?