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based on EMEP/MSC-W model and EMEP monitoring data
PM Trends based on EMEP/MSC-W model and EMEP monitoring data Applying the same trend analysis: Mann Kendall test to detect the trend (significance level 0.05) Sen’s method for calculating the slope TFMM 16-th meeting Kraków, Poland, May 5-8, 2015
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Model Bias (%) compared to observations at common sites for 2002 - 2012
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Emissions ECLIPSE-v5: relative difference 2012-2002
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Model calculated and measured Sen slope for PM2
Model calculated and measured Sen slope for PM2.5 for (ug/m3/yr) Observation trends: significant insignificant
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Model calculated and measured Sen slope for PM10 for 2002-2012 (ug/m3/yr)
Total PM10 Anthropogenic PM10 Observation trends: significant insignificant
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Focusing on the regions with measurements: Sen for 2002-2012
PM10 PM2.5 SIA PPM10
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PM10 Model shows: + smaller Abs trend (due to under- estimation of PM
g/m3/yr Model shows: + smaller Abs trend (due to under- estimation of PM + larger relative trend (more inter-annual variability in Obs meteorological/ instrumentation/ artefacts ?? %/yr
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AT0002 AT0005 CH0004 CZ0003 DE0002 DE0007 ES0007 SE0012 GB0006 ES0014 NO01 IT0001
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PM2.5: percentage change % /yr DE0003 ES0013 IT0004 FI0050
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SIA: percentage change
% /yr -5.2% -1.8% DE0044 ES0010 IT0001 NO0001
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Main findings regarding PM trends for the period 2002 - 2012
Both model and observations indicate negative trends for PM10 and PM2.5 Averaged values of calculated and measured PMx relative trends (quantified with Sen slopes) are quite similar: Respectively and % / yr for PM and % / yr for PM2.5 ..still discrepancies exist at individual sites… SIA trends are negative, steeper according to the model (-5.1 %/yr vs %/yr) and the model results show that the PM trends are largerly due to the decrease in SIA Better model-obs correspondence at the sites with «significant» measured trends
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Some more findings regarding PM trends for the period 2002 - 2012
Applying 0.05 significance level, observed PM trends are characterized as insignificant at more than a half of measurement sites, whereas the model indicates significant trends The main reason - considerable inter-annual variability in measured annual concentrations … meteorology, method/instruments change, artefacts, other…?? How to deal with this…? To release the request on significance level (e.g. to 0.1)?
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PM2.5
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MSC-W vs TFMM EDT
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