1. Institute of Coastal Research “System Analysis and Modelling”
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
Germany
Visit of IOCAS
10 October 2017
Voss, pers. comm.
Institute of Coastal Research “System Analysis and Modelling”

2. Coastal engineering not included.
Coastal Research Institutions in Germany
Nordsee: lange Entwicklung, Industrialisierung,  Testfeld / Prototyp
challenges arising from two distinct (but related) directions of change that affect complex environments worldwide: changes in the natural environment and in societal demand for resources of coastal seas
Coastal engineering not included.

3. HZG – Portfolio Total budget: 92 Mio €, Employees: 930 (820 FTEs)
1/3 Coastal and Climate Research
2/3 Materials Research
27 Mio € Mio € (Institutional funding)
5 Mio € Mio € (Third party funding)
152 FTE FTE (R&D Personel) 3 3

4. Institute of Coastal Research
As a means to identify the potential for change, sustainability, and adaptation, IfK provides the tools, assessments, and scenarios for managing vulnerable coastal environments
What is the present synoptic state of the coastal sea?
COSYNA develops and tests analysis systems for the operational synoptic description of the environmental status
of the North Sea. It provides knowledge tools that can help authorities and other stakeholders to manage routine tasks, emergency situations and evaluate trends. It designs the next generation
of observing systems, including hardware, software, quality assurance and sampling strategies.
What are the long term changes in the coastal zones, and which changes may be expected for the future?
coastDat is a model data set of long-term, high-resolution reconstructions (60 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions, as well as of scenarios of future developments (100 years) in the Northeast Atlantic
and Northern Europe.
What are the spatially distri-buted properties of the coastal sea floor?
coastMap is a digital inventory of seafloor characteristics in the German Bight. The data base and WebGIS publishes data on properties, functions and spatial/temporal variability of sea floors in the Wadden Sea and North Sea merged from observational data and numerical models. They are the basis for ecosystem models, sensitivity and risk assessments, and ecosystem service evaluation.

5. Integrated Coastal Observing System
COSYNA (Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas)
synoptic view of environmental state
North and Baltic Seas, Arctic
autonomous in situ observations and remote sensing
Data and products
Mobile observatorium at very high resolution for small-scale dynamics
 ACROSS, MOSES
Nordsee
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
strategische ausbaumassnahme HGF, Mobile Observatories / MOSES: event-chains, global coast
Photo: NASA

6. GCoast: Seamless model cascade
Regional atmospheric, ocean, biogeochemistry
small-scale ocean: estuaries, effects of wind farms
Effects of sea level rise, warming, river inputs

7. Biogeochemical cycles in the coastal ocean
The main interface of material flows in the Earth System.
high natural variability
uncertain changes under global/regional trends
increasing human impacts
Eintrag von Nährstoffen und Problemstoffen über Flüsse und durch die Atmosphäre
Effekte Bodenfischerei und Sandabbau auf den Stoffaustausch zwischen Sediment und Wassersäule
Ölunfälle
Schiffsemissionen
Risiken von Mikroplastik, zum Beispiel aus dem Einsatz von Geotextilien als Kolkschutz an offshore Windturbinen
nutrient cycles and eutrophication
sources, transformation processes, and fate of problematic substances
information for assessments of environmental status and mitigation of risks for coastal ecosystems and society

8. Utility of coastal science
Based upon:
von Storch, H., K. Emeis, I. Meinke, A. Kannen, V. Matthias, B. W. Ratter, E. Stanev, R. Weisse and K. Wirtz, 2015: Making coastal research useful - cases from practice. Oceanologica 57,
30 min

9. Coastal research deals with that part of the sea, which is significantly affected by the land, and the part of the land, which is significantly affected by the sea. Coasts are in most cases densely populated, and the activities of people are shaping and changing the land/seascape of the coast. Thus, coast encompasses the coastal sea, the coastal land, coastal flora and fauna, and people. Since peoples’ economic and political preferences change and compete, the human impact on the coast changes is contested and subject to societal decision making processes.
All decision making processes are political, so that scientific knowledge is not the dominant driver in such processes.
Using cases from the Institute of Coastal Research of Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, we describe some of these potentially useful parts of science, and discuss under which circumstances the potential usefulness transform into real utility.
These cases do not span the full range of coastal science. There is a bias towards physical and some societal issues, while ecological issues are not at the center of this presentation.

10. Bias towards physical and social aspects!
Issues in Coastal Research with the potential of societal utility:
Making Sense
Marine Spatial Planning (MSP)
Monitoring
Hazards, Risks and Opportunities
Scenarios
More …
Bias towards physical and social aspects!

11. Making sense refers to the scientific understanding of complex phenomena, and its use for supporting societal framing and decision making.
Examples are consequences of eutrophication or the manifestation of natural system variations vis-a-vis anthropogenic climate change.
Meaning-providing frames, which allow for causal interpretation and understanding, satisfy not only curiosity, but allow for engineering preparedness and options for specific stakeholders. A significant constraint is that science is not the sole supplier of such understanding, but other knowledge brokers are active as well.

12. Making sense
What is the process behind the marked increase of storm surge heights in Hamburg since the 1970s?
Storm surges as recorded at the tide gauge St Pauli in Hamburg. The green horizontal bars indicate stipulated dike heights. Dike failures are marked by red stars. The color codes mark surge heights. Data provided by Gabriele Gönnert.

13. Consistency of recent local change: Storm surges in Hamburg
Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg
Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level.
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

14. Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) describes the “public process of analyzing and allocating the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities in marine areas to achieve ecological, economic and social objectives that have been specified through a political process”.
MSP needs mostly quantitative information from natural sciences for project-specific technical planning exercises, but in addition social science needs to provide mainly qualitative information concerning societal and political context and structures to inform decision makers in strategic planning.
Coastal science is not doing MSP as such, but researches conditions of how to implement MSP.

16. Monitoring aims at the assessment of the current status of the coastal environment and short term trends, and their (deterministic) short-term forecasts.
Such assessments are based on observations and related (model-guided) data analysis. The process of making data, assessments and forecasts available for users is also a challenge.
Coastal science is not doing the routine of monitoring as such, but in research on how to implement the process of monitoring.

17. COSYNA – North Sea
COSYNA (Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas) is a synoptic observing system for the environmental status of the North Sea. Numerous automatic in situ and satellite observations are continuously assimilated in models, thus producing hourly real-time forecasts of high quality.
The data are used by science, industry, and authorities.

18. Operational COSYNA Products
Actual state & forecast:
current
waves
salinity
temperature
turbidity / chlorophyll
Application:
oil spills/chemical accidents
toxic algal blooms
wind farms
Nordsee
Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
Photo: NASA

19. Product: Currents Nordsee Land-Meer-Interaktionen
Räumliche und zeitliche
Variabilität
Trends
Events, Risiken
Photo: NASA

20. Assessments of hazards, risks and opportunities are needed for almost any kind of onshore and offshore operation.
An important component of this activity is the determination of ongoing long-term changes.
The situation is particularly challenging, when too short, too fragmented or only inhomogeneous observed data are available. Then, sometimes, model-derived estimates can be used.

21. Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change
The CoastDat data set:
Model generated data sets
Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe
Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions.
extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea
Clients:
Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic
Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy)
General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change
GKSS in Geesthacht

22. Some applications of Ship design Navigational safety Offshore wind
Interpretation of measurements
Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution
Ocean energy
Scenarios of storm surge conditions
Scenarios of future wave conditions
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Currents Power [W/m2] 22

23. Scenarios, differently to forecasts, address questions of the type “What may happen, if … and nothing else”.
Such projections provide a useful outlook for assessing consequences of possible future developments and uncertainties. Therefore scenarios have become increasingly popular in various scientific and decision making contexts.

24. Storm surge height scenarios 2030, 2085
Policy advice
Sea level, and storm surges, will rise; the extent is very uncertain.
Until 2040, or so, coastal defense with present planning levels is sufficient
After 2040, coastal defense may become insufficient.
Suggestions for near future - improve technology (e.g., overflow) - monitor ongoing change - plan for organizational measures to deal with enhanced risk, and involve population in participatory efforts - do all coastal defense modernization so that future additional fortifications are possible - be prepared to implement decisions in 20 years

25. Knowledge transfer to “clients”?
For making scientific insights useful, these insights must be brought to the attention of clients (stakeholders : decision makers, media, public).
Many natural scientists believe that the knowledge transfer is merely an issue of explaining properly the scientific insights. However, that is not true.
Knowledge transfer …
… entails not only information provision and contextualization of research findings, but an analysis of the “knowledge market”. Science-stakeholder interaction becomes multifaceted and complicated.
Social and cultural science knowledge is urgently needed for a successful participation of science in the process of advising decision making.

26. Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.
How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.

27. Tools for regional climate servicing climate con/dis-sensus reports
Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – #1 in 2008, #2 published in Hamburg region (#1 in2010; #2 in October 2017 ) + North Sea (published in 2016) Full reports and condensed reports for general public.
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U.,

28. North German Climate Office@hzg
An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders
Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning
that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders
that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. 28

29. Take home
The research program of the Institute of Coastal Research takes into account questions of stakeholders and of the public, while maintaining a high scientific standard.
This presentation described only parts of the program; the embedding into the overall program of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers has not been described. Also other elements of cooperation within the German community of coastal and oceanic researchers has not been addressed.
Three key projects of the Institute of Coastal Research have been briefly sketched: The development of methods/technology for monitoring the coastal seas (COSYNA) with relevance of planning and management, the assessment of ongoing and expected future change in coastal zones (CoastDat) with relevance of risk analysis and adaptation, and finally CoastMap dealing with conditions, vulnerability and exploitation of the coastal sea bottom.
Also some work on building community and dialogue with regional stakeholders is part of the program.