1. State Climate Office Weekly Drought Update
Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D.
NDSU, AES
State Climatologist
Updated 8/1/2019

2. US Drought Monitor

3. Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings (Last Month)
June 2019 (65th Driest)
June 2019 Ranking Table by Crop Districts
Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term ( ) average.
Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (125 years total).

4. Divisional Precipitation Anomalies and Rankings (Last 3 Months)
June 2019 (65th Driest)
June 2019 Ranking Table by Crop Districts
Negative numbers indicate drier than long-term ( ) average.
Lower rankings indicate historically drier conditions on record (125 years total).

5. 30-Day Precipitation
Total Accumulation
% of Normal
(NDAWN Images)

6. Long Term Precipitation % of Normal
60 Days
90 Days
(HPRCC Images)

7. (% Change from previous week)
Cumulative % area
(% Change from previous week) DO
25%
(+2%) D1 4%
(+1%)
None
74%
(-2%)

8. Drought Change
1-week Change
4-week Change

9. State Coverage and Intensity

10. Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
295
(Aug 8, 2017)
329
(Aug 8, 2006) 26
(+3)
Drought Severity and Coverage Index = ADO + 2AD1 + 3AD2 + 4AD3 + 5AD4 (Akyüz, 2007)
Where: A is a % of the state covered under the corresponding D-severity

11. Accumulated Drought Severity and Coverage Index (Statewide)
411
10,642
19,319
9,530
9653
2116
11,991
1714
17 weeks of no drought
*Numbers indicate the area under the DSCI Index Curve
*Akyuz (2017)

12. Soil Moisture and Bare Soil Temperature
Soil Moisture Departure from Normal
5-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)
(40mm = 1.6”)

13. Crassland Productivity Forecast (June-August)
*These three maps
show the forecasted percent change in grassland production compared to a county’s
34-year average.
USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub:

14. Corn GDD Accumulation Forecast*
Sep 29
This graphic is created based on 90-day corn planted in Cass county on May 15. It shows estimated date of silking and maturity with respect to hard freeze climatology.
Jul 26
Oct 9
*U2U Decision Support Tools:

15. Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices
Divide (Brandon Biwer): Moderately Dry . Two weeks have gone by without significant rains again. Drought conditions will return to Divide County if we do not receive rains soon.
Williams (Clair Keene): Mildly Dry. Williston received 3" rain on July 9, but that has been the only significant rainfall so far this month. That rain helped save a lot of crops, but a lot of it likely ran off and did not infiltrate in fields with poor soil structure. With temperatures predicted to be upper 80's to 90 for the next 10 days and no chances of rain, I expect the relief from the rain will be short-lived. However, harvest of small grains is likely to start within the next 2 weeks, so farmers do not want it to rain. I expect livestock producers will be disappointed with 2nd cutting hay, if they are able to get a 2nd cutting this year.
Ward (Paige Brummund): Moderately Dry. Pastures and crops are burning up. Corn and soybeans are showing significant heat stress during the reproductive stages. Small grains, peas, canola, and flax are maturing and drying down and are less affected at their stage of growth. Hay yields are at least 50% below normal for the majority of the county due to a dry spring and the current hot and dry weather. Pastures are not re-growing, grass has gone dormant.

16. Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices
Pierce (Yolanda Schmidt): Moderately Dry. Meadow hay is in very short supply due to several years of drought. Many producers are considering selling anywhere from 10-50% of their cow herds vs. trying to buy hay. This is the 3rd year in a row with below normal precipitation and pastures and hay meadows are severely stressed. Producers are worried about having enough pasture for the grazing season in addition to being able to put up enough hay for the winter as delayed grass growth this spring forced many to continue feeding cows for several weeks longer due to delayed turnout. Main concerns are having to sell down the herd. Water quality in terms of blue green algae is becoming a concern also.
McHenry (Rachel Wald): Moderately Dry. We are getting to the point again where we need moisture before the progress that was made starts going backwards. Grass in lawns and pastures are brown from stress and the hay crop is definitely short. Hay and alfalfa is maybe 1/3 of what is normally there. Winter supplies will be short if we are unable to get the forages we need this fall. Crops are looking stressed again. Harvest has started with small grains. Drought stress on crops. Lack of moisture and the consequences that follow.

17. Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices
Walsh (Brad Brummond): Moderately Dry. Potatoes are starting shrink back from the rows. Pastures have gone dormant. Soybeans on sand are firing and dying, small grains are rapidly being pushed to maturity. Corn is also starting to fire.
Cavalier (Anitha Chirumamilla): Mildly Dry
Towner (Lindy Berg): Moderately Dry.
Grand Forks (Carrie Knutson): Normal conditions in the eastern part, dry in the northwest portion

18. Weekly Drought Impact Collection Based on the NDSU Weekly Survey of Extension Offices
Mercer (Craig Askim): Mildly Dry. Crops holding, no rain in last ten days or so, so moisture is needed in some areas of the county. The NW part of the county has received the least amount of moisture over the last week or so. hay that has been cut is slow to recover. pastures are starting to show slight drought pressure.
Dunn (Greg Benz): Abnormally Dry
Kidder (Penny Nester): Moderately Wet. Starting to have issues with excess rainfall.
Slope (Shelby): Near Normal.
LaMoure (Julianne): Moderately Wet.

19. Drought Pictures
Figure 1. This photo is a common site in pastures in the county. Ward County. Photo: Paige Brummund, NDSU
Figure 2. Soybean in Benson County. Photo: Scott Knoke, NDSU.

20. Drought Pictures
Figure 3. Corn showing drought stress in the southern parts of the county. Pierce County. Photo: Yolanda Schmid, NDSU.
Figure 4. Thin hay meadows and pastures. Southern Pierce County. Photo: Yolanda Schmid, NDSU.

21. Drought Pictures
Figure 5. Pierce County. Photo: Yolanda Schmid, NDSU.
Figure 6. Although not as bad as corn, soybean also showing drought stress in Pierce County. Photo: Yolanda Schmid, NDSU.

22. Drought Pictures
Figure 7. Drought-stressed Corn. Pierce County. Photo: Yolanda Schmid, NDSU.

23. 7-Day Forecast (Through noon Thu, Aug 8)

24. 14-Day Forecast (Through noon Thu, Aug 15)

25. Week 3 to 4 Forecast
Precipitation
Temperature

26. Summer (Aug-Oct) 2019 Outlook
Precipitation
Temperature