1. Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 14 February 23, 2006
Mexican Americans/Latinos and State/Local Elections, Particularly in California
Mexican Americans and Politics
Lecture 14
February 23, 2006

2. Exam – March 2, 2006 My goals Format? Delivery mechanism?
Synthesize various components of the class
Demonstrate a mastery of readings and class discussions
Format?
Delivery mechanism?

3. Mexican Americans and National Elections
From Last Time
Mexican Americans and National Elections

4. 2008 in Prospect An open race A closely divided national electorate
Increased sophistication in outreach to non-regular voters
Seen in Ohio and Florida in 2004
Increased sophistication of the symbolic appeal
Richardson candidacy may generate Mexican American excitement (though I doubt it)

5. But, Democrats Republicans
Nominee will be at a financial disadvantage, so will focus on likely voters
Few Mexican American/Latino advisors appointed to current campaigns
Republicans
Field not naturally Mexican American-sensitive
Bush won’t alienate core Republican constituencies, so can’t support Mexican American policy outreach
Immigration reform debate will alienate Mexican Americans

6. 2008 and Mexican Americans What You Should Watch
Democrats
Richardson candidacy – does he run? does anyone notice?
Ordering of primaries
Vice presidential field
Republicans
Does primary race focus on appeals to the moral conservatives?
Does decline in Bush popularity continue?
Beyond symbolism?
Latino organizations
Mobilization strategies

7. In Sum
Ion national politics, the rhetoric is ahead of the reality; 2004 did not change the dynamic
Mobilization is the most important change that could occur to close the symbolism-influence gap,
But mobilization is not the concern of candidates or Latino leaders
My best estimate – and this is contested – is that Bush didn’t get 40 percent of the 2004 Latino vote

8. Mexican Americans/Latinos and State and Local Politics
Today’s Discussion
Mexican Americans/Latinos and State and Local Politics

9. Some General Propositions
Contradiction
Local politics more likely to engage non-participating Mexican Americans to electoral participation
Participation in (and research on) national elections much higher
So, local politics is harder to summarize, but ultimately key to Mexican American empowerment

10. Levels of Latino Officeholding

11. Why Are Campaigns for Local Office Important?
They are:
Close to voters and potential voters
More likely to raise relevant issues and to package the issue in a more easy understood way
The victors are:
More likely to be accessible to members of the community
Act as role models
Mobilize new participants to participation
Developing the skills they will need to move on to higher office

12. Mexican Americans/Latinos and State Politics
2003 Gubernatorial California Recall as Case Study

13. The Roots of the 2003 Recall 2002 Governor’s Race
Davis (D) 47%
Simon (R) 42%
Why the narrow margin?
Davis didn’t excite the Democratic base
Latent resentment about the electricity crisis and fear of the state budget deficit
Central to low turnout among the Democratic base was lower than expected turnout among Mexican Americans

14. The Circus Quick collection of signatures, perhaps 2 million
The short window and minimal requirements to get on the ballot
200 candidates … 300 candidates … 135 who qualified
He’s in, he’s out, he’s on Leno and in
And Lt. Governor Bustamante declares also
The federal courts delay the election (and are reversed)
Equal protection claim and punch card ballots

15. One Thing Most Can Agree On – It Was a Circus
Source: Pew Hispanic Center/TRPI poll

16. Early Read – Circus Advantaged Mexican Americans
Bustamante
Didn’t have to have a Democratic primary against White Democrats … he was the only major Democrat in the race
He had money from an earlier campaign
Large number of candidates meant that many thought a winning plurality would be percent
More of a battle on the right than the left

17. What Happened? Bustamante didn’t catch fire in the Democratic base
An insider in a “throw the bums out” election
Not ready for prime time
Ethnical questions about past fundraising
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Used popular mood and multiple candidates to avoid issue discussion
Republicans hungry for victory (willing to overlook Schwarzenegger’s moderate views on social issues)
Star power in a state obsessed with stars

18. Little Effort to Win Mexican American Votes
Bustamante took them for granted
Davis relied on the unions to do voter mobilization (to oppose recall)
Schwarzenegger tried to connect symbolically, but undercut this message by staffing his campaign with Pete Wilson aides
Other candidates did no Latino outreach
The recall race like most state/national campaigns

19. For Next Time Prepare for the Midterm Questions on the readings:
What policy and organizational changes would be necessary to move a higher share of the citizenship-eligible Mexican immigrant population toward naturalization?
How would the Mexican American electorate change if more Mexican Americans naturalized?