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Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study Project Team Meeting Roadmap

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Presentation on theme: "Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study Project Team Meeting Roadmap"— Presentation transcript:

1 Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study Project Team Meeting Roadmap
July 16, 2019 Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

2 Project Team Agenda Task Overview Schedules Roadmap Climate Change
Groundwater Modeling Budget | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

3 Plan of Study pinalpartnership.com Committees Water Resource Committee
EMS Basin Study | SUPPLY AND DEMAND |

4 Study Schedule Task Description Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Nov 2018 Feb 2019
May 2019 Aug 2019 Nov 2020 Feb 2020 May 2020 Aug 2020 Nov 2021 Feb 2021 May 2021 Aug 2021 5.1 Climate Change Analysis X 5.2 Supply and Demand Assessment 5.3 & 5.4 Groundwater Model 5.5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 5.6 Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies 5.7 Conduct Economic Analysis 5.8 Basin Study Report Project Management / Admin | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

5 Study Tasks 1 Develop Climate Projections 2
Conduct Supply and Demand Assessment 3 & 4 Update and Run Groundwater Model 5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 6 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 7 Conduct Economic Analysis 8 Prepare Basin Study Report | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

6 Study Tasks 1 Develop Climate Projections 2
Conduct Supply and Demand Assessment 3 & 4 Update and Run Groundwater Model 5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 6 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 7 Conduct Economic Analysis 8 Prepare Basin Study Report 6 | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

7 Additional Adaptation Develop Adaptation Strategies
Study Approach Benefits and Costs Present Future without Additional Adaptation Future with Project Imbalances Tasks 1 – 2 Task 6 Develop Adaptation Strategies Trade-off analysis Task 7 Evaluate Risks Tasks 3 – 5 7 | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

8 Study Tasks 1 Develop Climate Projections 2
Conduct Supply and Demand Assessment 3 & 4 Update and Run Groundwater Model 5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 6 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 7 Conduct Economic Analysis 8 Prepare Basin Study Report | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

9 Task 1 Climate Change Projections
Initial Presentation from Reclamation Staff (May 21, 2019) Develop Agreement with Reclamation’s Technical Service Center (TSC) Determine how climate changes effect water demands | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

10 Study Tasks 1 Develop Climate Projections 2
Conduct Supply and Demand Assessment 3 & 4 Update and Run Groundwater Model 5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 6 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 7 Conduct Economic Analysis 8 Prepare Basin Study Report | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

11 Tasks 3 & 4 Develop and Run Groundwater Model
Scope Developed Qualifications developed Request for interest Request for proposals Contracting Goal to Start Work in August/Sept | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

12 Study Tasks - Budget $1.36 million grant with a 50/50 cost share 1
Develop Climate Projections 2 Conduct Supply and Demand Assessment 3 & 4 Update and Run Groundwater Model 5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 6 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 7 Conduct Economic Analysis 8 Prepare Basin Study Report | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

13 Study Tasks 1 Develop Climate Projections 2
Conduct Supply and Demand Assessment 3 & 4 Update and Run Groundwater Model 5 Conduct Infrastructure Analysis 6 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 7 Conduct Economic Analysis 8 Prepare Basin Study Report | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

14 Task 2 Conduct Supply & Demand Assessments
Conduct Assessment of Current Water Supply Develop Future Water Supply Projections Conduct Assessment of Current Water Demand Develop Future Water Demand Projections Report Preparation | SUPPLY AND DEMAND | Eloy and Maricopa- Stanfield Basin Study

15 Sequence of Steps for Scenario Planning
A Reminder: We are here! Existing Data Review Assess current supply/demand Identify data gaps 1 Supply and Demand Factor Selection Identify supply and demand factors Refine list of factors Provide data products 2 Scenario Development Identify dimensions of interest Group factors Develop narratives 3 On this continuum…. If we zoom in closer on study task #2 which is part of projecting supply imbalances Few key task to accomplish prior to developing the future supply and demand projections without adaptation strategies Supply and Demand |

16 Example Dimensions of Interest:
Lower Santa Cruz River Basin Study: West Valley Basin Study E Low Demand, Warm, Wet High Demand, Warm, Wet Climate F Water Demand A C We can think about these scenarios in a few different ways WVWA – Coordinate system LSCRB – Matrix. Focus on risk. Risk to the availability of future water supplies and the environment. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP 8.5 vs 4.5 Low Demand, Hot, Dry High Demand, Hot, Dry B D Supply and Demand |

17 What are the dimensions we are most interested in?
West Valley Lower Santa Cruz EMS ? What are the dimensions we are most interested in? Supply and Demand |

18 EMS Proposed Scenario Dimensions
Climate (i.e. Supply) Total Water Demand (Ag + Industry + Muni) vs. - By necessity we have to have climate and we propose that the other axis is the sum of the three different sectors Supply and Demand |

19 Building Our Scenarios
- As a reminder, these scenarios are assembled by grouping together different key factors that affect supply and demand. As a jumping off point for scenario development we are using the short list of factors Supply and Demand |

20 Building Our Scenarios – Agriculture Factors
Three Groups of Factors: 1. Fully replaces reduced CAP/ surface water 2. Partial replaces reduced CAP/ surface water 3. Limited to current and planned pumping 1. Rapid 2. Steady (i.e. current) 3. Slow 1. Preference towards development on agriculture 2. No incentive 3. Preference to preserve GW Pumping Increase in Irrigation Efficiency Prior to Mitigation / Adaptation Briefly run through these because you have them in front of you and we want to focus most of our time on actually piecing these together to create scenarios Irrigation efficiency is in reference to what is currently being done, subsurface drip, lining of unlined canals, center pivot Development Incentives Supply and Demand |

21 Building Our Scenarios – Municipal Factors
Three Groups of Factors: 1. High 2. Medium (Official) 3. Low 1. Spillover (from Phoenix and Tucson) 2. Official (Association of Governments) 3. Local growth 4. Dense Urbanization (in Phoenix and Tucson) 1. Rapid 2. Steady (i.e. current) 3. Slow Rate of Growth Pattern of Growth Prior to Mitigation / Adaptation - Local growth in the Coolidge, Maricopa and san tan areas Adoption of Conservation Practices Supply and Demand |

22 Building Our Scenarios – Climate Factors
Single Group of Factors: 1. Hotter and Drier (Very High Emissions; RCP 8.5) 2. Hot and Dry (High Emissions; RCP 4.5) 3. Historic (Without Climate Change) Climate Conditions Prior to Mitigation / Adaptation Proposing to use the same climate scenarios as the lower santa cruz basin study Hot and dry vs Hotter and Direr bracket the likely outcomes None of the climate models predict the historic option but can be used for comparison Supply and Demand |

23 Agricultural / Municipal
Climate Pumping Fully replaces Partially replaces Limited to current/planned Growth Pattern Spillover Official Dense urbanization Local growth Climate Hotter and drier Hot and dry Historic Irrigation Efficiency Rapid Steady (i.e. current) Slow Conservation Rapid Steady (i.e. current) Slow Agricultural / Municipal Growth Rate High Official Low Development Preference for on Ag No preference Preserve Ag (bare desert) Supply and Demand |

24 Seven groups to choose from = 2,916 different combinations !!!
Rule of Product Seven groups to choose from = 2,916 different combinations !!! (although not really because many options are not internally consistent e.g. a low growth rate and a spillover spatial distribution ) Our Goal: Come up with a handful (5 - 6) of plausible scenarios by picking combinations Supply and Demand |

25 Scenario A: Highest Demand
Pumping Fully replaces Partially replaces Limited to current/planned Growth Pattern Spillover Official Dense urbanization Local growth Climate Hotter and drier Hot and dry Historic Irrigation Efficiency Rapid Steady (i.e. current) Slow Conservation Rapid Steady (i.e. current) Slow Development Preference for on Ag No preference Preserve Ag (bare desert) Growth Rate High Official Low Supply and Demand |

26 Hotter and drier Climate Hot and dry Historic Water Demand
High Growth, Spillover Hotter and drier A Climate Hot and dry Historic Water Demand Supply and Demand |

27 Scenario E: Lowest Demand
Pumping Fully replaces Partially replaces Limited to current/planned Growth Pattern Spillover Official Dense urbanization Local growth Climate Hotter and drier Hot and dry Historic Irrigation Efficiency Rapid Steady (i.e. current) Slow Conservation Rapid Steady (i.e. current) Slow Development Preference for on Ag No preference Preserve Ag (bare desert) Growth Rate High Official Low Supply and Demand |

28 Hotter and drier Climate Hot and dry Historic Water Demand
High Growth, Spillover Hotter and drier A Low Growth, Dense Urbanization Climate Hot and dry E Historic Water Demand Supply and Demand |

29 Why were these factors selected?
Narratives Why were these factors selected? Supply and Demand |

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