1. Climate Change Mitigation Options in the Forest Sector Werner A
Climate Change Mitigation Options in the Forest Sector Werner A. Kurz Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Western Forestry Contractors’ Association Kelowna BC February 8, 2018 5

2. Impacts of climate change occur today – and will increase!
Despite efforts to trump scientific observations with alternate facts and fake news, the evidence that climate change is affecting the earth system is mounting daily.

3. Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry
Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2016, 62% over 1990
Projection for 2017: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.0% higher than 2016
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
Estimates for 2015 and 2016 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

4. Fate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2007–2016)
Sources = Sinks
17.2 GtCO2/yr
46%
34.4 GtCO2/yr
88%
30%
11.0 GtCO2/yr
Fossil fuel burning, cement
12%
4.8 GtCO2/yr
24%
8.8 GtCO2/yr
Deforestation, land-use change 6%
2.2 GtCO2/yr
Budget Imbalance: (the difference between estimated sources & sinks)
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton and Nassikas 2017; Hansis et al 2015; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

5. Paris Agreement Ambitious temperature target well below 2o C.
The submissions on intended Nationally- Determined Contributions (NDCs) from ~148 countries recognise the importance of the land sector in achieving GHG emission reduction targets.
Source: Paris Agreement, UNFCCC, accessed Dec 12, 2015 2

6. Net negative emissions required to achieve < 2 oC
In the lead up to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report new scenarios have been developed to more systematically explore key uncertainties in future socioeconomic developments
<2 oC
Five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been developed to explore challenges to adaptation and mitigation. Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) are used to achieve target forcing levels (W/m2). Marker Scenarios are indicated. Source: Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; Global Carbon Budget 2017

7. We’re looking for new, ground-breaking,
transformational approaches to converting CO2 emissions into valuable products.
Source:
Tuesday Sept 29, 2015

8. We’re looking for … approaches to converting CO2 emissions into valuable products.

9. ~ 1 million cubic meters of wood ~ 1 Mt CO2
BC annual harvest ~67 times this amount
BC emissions from other sectors ~63 Mt CO2
Mt = megatonnes (million tonnes)

10. Mitigation Strategies: Need for Systems Perspective
Minimise net Emissions to the Atmosphere
Maximise Carbon Stocks
Non-forest
Land Use
Land-use Sector
Forest Sector
Biofuel
Wood Products
Services used by Society
Other Products
Fossil Fuel
Forest
Ecosystems
Source: IPCC 2007, AR4 WG III, Forestry

11. Maximise Carbon stocks ….
Fossil Emissions
Maximise
Carbon stocks
Forest
Ecosystems
Biofuel
Fossil Fuel
Fossil Fuel
Wood Products
Other Products
Forest
Ecosystems
Biofuel
Wood Products
Services used by Society
Fossil Fuel
Other Products
Fossil Emissions
or maximise
Carbon uptake?

12. Systems Perspective
Design of climate change mitigation portfolios in the forest sector should account for changes in C in
forest ecosystems,
in harvested wood products, and
for changes in emission from substitution benefits
relative to a base case.

13. Options for forest sector mitigation activities:
Forest Ecosystem Harvested Wood Products Substitution
Increase sinks through forest management: fertilization, stand tending, tree selection, etc.
Rehabilitation after natural disturbances (wild fire and insects).
Reduce harvest residue burning.
Harvest less / more depending on conditions.
Increase afforestation and avoid deforestation.
Maximize carbon retention in long-lived products.
Cascading wood use.
Reduce wood waste at every stage.
Divert wood products from landfills.
Replace emissions-intensive products such as steel and concrete with wood products.
Replace fossil fuels with bioenergy from wood waste, where appropriate.
We have modeled some of these …

14. Mitigation analyses: analytical framework
Forest
Ecosystems
Biofuel
Fossil Fuel
Fossil Fuel
Wood Products
Other Products
Carbon Budget Model
CBM-CFS3
CBM
FHWP
Substitution
Estimation
CBM-CFS3 and CBM-FHWP used for Canada’s National GHG inventory reporting.

15. National-scale Mitigation Analysis

16. Maximize Forest Management and HWP mitigation
Cumulative emission reductions to 2050 (relative to baseline)
Reduced
emissions
Increased emissions
Bioenergy feedstock
Longer-lived Products (LLP)
Harvest Less + LLP
Better Utilization+ LLP
Portfolio Mix: 1180 MtCO2e
Not a one-strategy fits all solution – best strategy depends on where you are.
Displaced emissions are ~200, ~40% of best mix

17. Mitigation Analysis for BC
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: 2017
Study estimates that by 2050, 35% of BC’s emission reduction target can be contributed by the forest sector at less than $100/tonne of CO2e with additional socio-economic benefits
Reduction targets are 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (relative to 2007)
Open Access at  

18. Results (Xu et al. 2017)
Best mitigation activities vary by region in BC : a portfolio of regionally-differentiated forest management and wood-use strategies can achieve 35% of emission reductions by 2025.
Increased wood product emissions,
but these reduced emissions from non-wood sources,
and reduced emissions or enhanced sink in the forest.

19. Higher Mitigation Benefits
Mitigation benefit increases with carbon retention and displacement factor
Structural Building
Products
Higher Mitigation Benefits
Displacement Factor
Panels
Bioenergy
Packaging
Paper
Carbon Retention Time
Note that this is a conceptual diagram with approximate X/Y values only

20. Mitigation benefits by displacing emissions from concrete and steel through the use of wood products
6 story Wood Innovation Design Centre Prince George, BC
18-story wood building
UBC, Vancouver
Art Gallery of Ontario
Toronto, Ontario

21. Thinned and Fertilised
Management options
Thinned and Fertilised
Silvicultural treatments to increase carbon accumulation per tree or per hectare.
Fertilised
Thinned
Source: Brix 1993
Source: Brix 1993
Control

22. Climate change impacts affect mitigation options
Impacts of environmental changes on forests will be both positive and negative: growth, mortality, disturbances.
Understanding where, when and how these impacts will occur is necessary to design effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies for the forest sector.
Ongoing CFS research, in collaboration with universities and provincial agencies, will inform the design of regionally-differentiated mitigation strategies.

23. Can we reduce emissions from slash pile burning
Alternate uses?
Photo: T. Sullivan
Photo: BC MoF

24. Can we capture energy and reduce non CO2 emissions?
Photos: T. Sullivan

25. Analyses and monitoring required for C mitigation programs
Forest C mitigation and reporting its outcome in national GHG inventories requires tools and data to establish:
Business-as-usual baseline of C dynamics without mitigation action.
Projection of C dynamics to evaluate alternatives and design climate and cost-effective mitigation portfolios.
Monitoring actual C dynamics following implementation of actions.
GHG inventories report actual emissions, difference between baseline and actual required to demonstrate effectiveness of investments.
Investing into mitigation actions without monitoring will undermine the credibility and sustainability of mitigation financing

26. Conclusions 2oC goal of the Paris Agreement cannot be reached without
reduction in burning of fossil fuels and
the global forest sector contributing to net negative emissions.
PICS team’s research therefore focuses on:
how the forest sector can mitigate climate change,
how forests will respond to the changing environment, and
what policies can help achieve mitigation objectives, cost-effectively and with the support of the public.
BC’s forest sector can make a significant contribution to mitigation.
This contribution increases if actions start soon and are sustained.
Effective mitigation strategies involve sustainable forest management, and use of long-lived products for C storage and substitution.

27. Werner Kurz
Publications at:

28. Recent Publications
Kurz et al Climate change mitigation through forest sector activities: principles, potential and priorities. Unasylva 246 (67):
Lemprière et al Cost of climate change mitigation involving’s Canada’s forest sector.
Canadian Journal of Forest Research. DOI: /cjfr
Smyth et al Climate change mitigation potential of local use of harvest residues for
bioenergy in Canada. Glob. Chg. Biol. Bioenergy. DOI: /gcbb.12387
Smyth et al Estimating product and energy substitution benefits in national-scale mitigation analyses for Canada. Glob. Chg. Biol. Bioenergy. DOI: /gcbb.12389
Xu et al Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. DOI: /s z

29. 10 steps towards forest sector mitigation
Grow more trees, faster, to increase carbon stocks
Avoid land-use change (deforestation)
Use harvested trees first for long-lived harvested wood products (HWPs)
Maximize carbon retention in HWPs and reduce wood waste at every stage
Maximize avoided emissions through wood use
Do not burn residues or waste unless energy is captured
Conserve forests in areas of high conservation value and of low risk of natural disturbance
Anticipate climate change impacts and align mitigation and adaptation objectives
Monitor consequences of carbon management actions
Obtain public support to use forest sector in climate change mitigation strategies

30. The future of forest carbon management?
Placing a price on carbon enables protection, planting and silvicultural activities that in the past have been considered “uneconomical”.
Will a carbon price lead to shifts in societal values?
Climate change impacts (fire, insects, drought) will create many dead trees: salvage logging, site rehabilitation, assisted tree migration and enhanced silviculture can help increase C sinks relative to the “no action” scenario.
Government investments to enhance forest carbon sinks can contribute to climate-effective, cost-effective mitigation portfolios.
Forest carbon management demonstration areas can help improve public understanding and acceptance of carbon-focused management.
Monitoring of carbon dynamics required to demonstrate value of mitigation investments.

31. Emissions Projections for 2017
Global emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to rise by 2.0% in 2017 The global projection has a large uncertainty, ranging from +0.8% to +3.0%
Source: CDIAC; Jackson et al 2017; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

32. Pathways that avoid 2°C of warming
According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) that avoid 2°C of warming, global CO2 emissions need to decline rapidly and cross zero emissions after 2050
Source: Riahi et al. 2016; IIASA SSP Database; Global Carbon Budget 2017

33. BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage
Estimates of required cumulative CO2 removal using BECCS to achieve < 2oC increase vary by study.
IPCC estimate ~600 Gt CO2 cumulative removals by 2100
Land required for bioenergy plantations: 500+ Mha
Competing with other wood uses, food and other land values.
Current operational BECCS capacity: ~ZERO.

34. BECCS: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture & Storage
Let the promise of unrealistically large future sinks from BECSS and the land sector not become an excuse to not reduce fossil fuel emissions.
If the land sector fails to deliver these large sinks then the temperature goals will be even less attainable.
However, the land sector and in particular forests can contribute to climate change mitigation strategies.

35. Max. C uptake (NEP) and max. C stocks occur at different stand ages:
we cannot “maximise” both at the same time,
= Net Primary Production
= Net Ecosystem Production
Stand age
= Heterotrophic Respiration
Source: Kurz et al. 2013

36. Results Scenarios: Planting and ‘better growth’.
Planting and better growth enhanced forest sink

37. Results Scenarios: Harvest Less
Increased emissions from non-wood energy and products,
but reduced emissions from wood products,
Overall mitigation
and enhanced forest sinks.

38. Results Scenarios: Longer-lived wood products
Created more long-lived structural wood products, to
reduce emissions from energy-intensive materials,
and reduce emissions from short-lived wood products
Overall mitigation

39. Results
The best mitigation activities vary by region: create a portfolio of regionally-differentiated forest management and wood-use strategies to maximize GHG reduction.
Increased wood product emissions,
but these reduced emissions from non-wood sources,
and reduced emissions or enhanced sink in the forest.
Portfolio

40. Uncertainties and research needs
How sustainable is forest management in a changing climate (regeneration)?
Changes in disturbance rates (fire, insects) and risk to mitigation strategies?
Life cycle analyses of wood products, substitution and elasticity of demand?
Upper bounds of forest sector contribution to net negative emissions?
Expansion of forest area, enhancement of forest productivity,
Optimum use of long-lived wood products and biomass for energy.
Costs of mitigation actions (relative to other options)
Co-benefits and trade-offs?
Responses of unmanaged forest lands (forests, peatlands, permafrost)?