1. D2N2 Labour Market: Challenges & Opportunities Rachel Quinn
Careers, Employability &
Inclusion Manager
May 2019

2. Jobs
The largest employment sectors in D2N2 - Manufacturing, Health, Business Administration and Support Services, and Retail trade - account for 50% of the total employment, and employ over 450,000 people. These sectors also account for a larger proportion of employment in comparison to the national average.
Manufacturing and Motor Trades employment is more concentrated in Derby and Derbyshire, and to a lesser extent in Nottinghamshire while Business Administration and Support services and Retail jobs are more concentrated in Nottinghamshire

3. Job Growth Trends
In 2016 D2N2 gained more than 17,000 jobs growing at the national average rate of 1.9%.
Although growth was spread across D2N2 the majority as % and total numbers was unsurprisingly in the cities
Job gains have been driven strongly by a growth in the visitor economy – with growth concentrations in Accommodation and Food Service Activities, Human Health and Social Work, Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities, and Public Administration, while job losses were driven by Administrative and Support Services, Education, Real Estate, and Financial and Insurance Activities.
Most of the sectors which experienced growth in jobs expanded their part-time employment more than the full-time employment, except for Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, Public Administration, and Transportation and Storage sectors. The contracting sectors, on the other hand, mostly reduced their full-time employment.
Employment growth reflects D2N2 Priority Sectors

4. Population

5. Qualifications
The D2N2 working age population is, on average, less well-qualified than the national population with a smaller proportion of residents qualified to Level 4+ and a higher proportion of residents whose highest level of qualification is level 1 or 2.
However, the skills profile of D2N2 residents varies considerably by age group.
Compared to the national profile, D2N2 has a slightly lower proportion of young people with L4+ qualifications and no qualifications, and a slightly higher proportion holding trade apprenticeships and L1 qualifications.
A higher proportion of the group aged 25 to 49 years old hold degree level qualifications compared to other age groups. However, the proportion is lower than nationally (37.3% compared to 45.7%). Additionally, this group has a lower proportion holding no qualifications.
The older working age population (50-54 years olds) holds a marginally lower proportion of NVQ L3 and above qualifications compared to the national profile and a higher proportion of people with no qualifications. Since some of these workers will seek to stay in the labour force for another decade, this group needs upskilling if they are to remain employable.

6. Technical secondary group undersupply
Chart: Undersupply of technical courses relative to skills shortage vacancies for technical secondary groups, D2N2, 2016/17
A report on skills mismatches in D2N2 commissioned by D2N2 LEP in 2016 shows that around a third of professional and technical job vacancies are classed as skill shortage vacancies by employers. This implies that employers find it challenging to source the high level skills they need to grow.
Therefore, raising skill levels of the D2N2 workforce is a vital component of achieving long-term economic growth ambitions. Two key priorities are to ensure businesses can access the skilled and experienced workers they need to succeed and to support skills providers to better meet the current and future skills needs of the D2N2 economy.
Engineering and planning/process/production technicians (£28,200)
In 2016/17, there was a potential undersupply of engineering technicians of more than 900 relative to the number of skills shortage vacancies in D2N2. During this period, there were 4,990 total vacancies, an estimated 1,590 skills shortage vacancies and 670 FE course completions. As can be seen in chart 33 in the appendix, the potential undersupply has increased from 500 in 2015/16 to 920 in 2017/18.
Not included in these figures are related occupations from the technical-advanced primary group. There were an estimated 730 additional skills shortage vacancies for engineering roles that are more professional in nature but are still often done by people with level 3 as their highest qualification.

7. Technical secondary group oversupply
Chart: Potential undersupply of technical courses relative to skills shortage vacancies for technical secondary groups, D2N2, 2016/17

9. Automation
The ONS analysed the jobs of 20 million people in England in 2017, - 7.4% are at high risk of automation.
Automation involves replacing tasks currently done by workers with technology, which could include computer programs, algorithms, or even robots. It is not so much that robots are taking over, but that routine and repetitive tasks can be carried out more quickly and efficiently by an algorithm written by a human, or a machine designed for one specific function. The risk of automation tends to be higher for lower-skilled roles for this reason.
The risks of automation depend highly on your age, gender, occupation and where you work.
When considering the overall risk of automation, the three occupations with the highest probability of automation are waiters and waitresses, shelf fillers and elementary sales occupations, all of which are low skilled or routine.
The three occupations at the lowest risk of automation are medical practitioners, higher education teaching professionals, and senior professionals of educational establishments. These occupations are all considered high skilled.
The ONS analysis shows that 70.2% of the roles at high risk of automation are currently held by women. In addition, people aged 20 to 24 years are most likely to be at risk of having their job automated, when compared with other age groups.
Younger people are more likely to be in roles affected by job automation. Of those aged 20 to 24 years who are employed, 15.7% were in jobs at high risk of automation. The risk of job automation decreases for older workers, and is lowest for workers aged between 35 and 39 years. Just 1.3% of people in this age bracket are in roles at high risk of automation. The risk then increases from the age group 40 to 44 upwards.
Lastly, the concentration of lower skilled roles also defines risk by geography. As the map here shows 4 districts in D2N2 are particularly exposed to risk of automation – Erewash, Ashfield, Mansfield and Newark & Sherwood all have risks above 50% of all jobs at risk

10. Digital
1 in 5 adults still lack digital skills whereas 83% of advertised jobs have digital skills requirements.
UK Digital Strategy

11. The Challenge Productivity & Income Gap Skills Profile & Mismatch
7.6% % % % % %
2017
8.6% % % % % %
2017
8.1% % % % % %
2017
Current and future recruitment challenge
60% employers experiencing problems
in recruitment(EMC QES)
Demographic squeeze and social mobility
The need to increase productivity – through skills and innovation
Linked to productivity…D2N2 has too many people in lower paid jobs and not enough in higher paid occupations – increase wages
Jobs with low/no qualifications expected to decline from 20% to 14% of the workforce – overall increase in skill need over time
No or limited change in the working-aged population – need to work better with the labour we have
Poor (and variable) health, prosperity and social mobility indicators across region - need to enable ALL our places and people to be part of the journey
Mismatch between skills demand and supply
Level of qualifications held by D2N2 residents lower than UK average
67% employers expecting difficulties in recruitment (EMC QES Q2 2018)
Relationships and narrative as important as delivery

12. People & Skills
‘Closing the gap between the skills of D2N2 people and the needs of D2N2 employers’
Future workforce
Connecting people to future opportunities
KA4: CAREERS INSPIRATION FOR OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE
Inclusive workforce
Leading a shift in culture and narrative to enable prosperity for all
KA5: INCLUSION AND PROGRESSION IN THE LABOUR MARKET
Skilled and productive workforce
Supplying the skills for a successful D2N2 economy
KA6: SKILLS AND LEADERSHIP FOR PRODUCTIVE GROWTH
Planning for future skills needs
Building the structure to drive a dynamic skills ‘ecosystem’
KA8: HS2 – CONNECTIVITY, SUPPLY CHAIN, SKILLS AND PEOPLE
Ambition - by 2030 we will have an inclusive healthy, productive, well qualified and well rewarded workforce supported by a world class education and training system and meeting the need of D2N2 employers – present and future.
Making full use of our potential labour force
Raising the employability of young people
Making work pay
Enabling in-work progression and up-skilling through careers
Raising demand for higher skills
Enabling employers (and individuals) to better understand and access their skills development needs in the immediate and medium to long term
Dealing with the impacts of industrial change and re-structuring
Making the skill system more responsive to long term needs
Gaining digital skills
Future workforce – understanding the current and future workforce opportunities across D2N2 and connecting young people and adults to them. Focus on raising aspirations and building quality careers guidance at all levels. Informed by robust LMI and employer engagement. Supporting people onto pathways towards the right careers for them and our economy
Inclusive workforce – enabling more people to benefit economically and changing the system to reduce barrier. Using our influencing and commissioning roles to reduce barriers to employment for those most disadvantaged – including working with employers to better understand the socio-economic benefits of good, inclusive work and targeting investment to address disparities
Skilled and productive workforce – increase emphasis on ongoing workforce skills development and life-long learning
Focus on best use of apprenticeship levy and T-levels. Coordinate the workplace skills support landscape, connecting employers to the support available that best meets their needs.
Planning for future skills needs – building a more effective, dynamic and responsive skills ecosystem through governance
Focus on robust LMI and data and active and ongoing relationships between policy makers, funders, employers and providers to close gaps and better meet our skills needs both now and in the future.

13. Rachel.quinn@d2n2lep.org 07551 124225