1. Week 21 Review
Yet another week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, and China “preparing for a long trade war”.
However, at the end of the week Trump says “good possibility of a China deal and Huawei could be included.”
PM May says she will resign on 7th June.
More pressure on the AUD – RBA says it is considering a rate cut in June. The week closes with Westpac saying
it now expects 3 rate cuts this year.
WTI drops 6.6% over the week on sentiment and technical selling.
On the W1 chart…
Equities drop over the week.
GOLD has its 6th week in a tight range.
USD maintains its upwards trend although has a down week.
EUR rises over the week, and technically breaks its down trend.
The GBP continues to slide.
The JPY rises on negative sentiment.
AUD and NZD have a slight rally, but things still look grim for the AUD in particular.

2. 22 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 27/5/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
(Sunday) - EU Elections.
Brexit Party win in UK. Populists do well across the EU.
Trump places tariffs on Mexico, initially 5%, as of June 10, rising to 25% by Oct 1st, until illegal immigration stops
Risk
Off
Neutral
Themes
Equities, Oil (reversal of technical selling), AUD weakness, USDTRY (TRY weakness – monitor), GBP weakness
USD Up
Holiday
Prelim GDP
Core PCE Price Index
EUR
Down trend broken
Holiday (FR, DE)
German Prelim CPI
German Retail Sales
JPY
Swing
Tokyo Core CPI
GBP
Down
CAD
No trend
Rate Statement
GDP
AUD
Rally on downtrend?
JP Morgan calling for 4 cuts by mid 2020
NZD
Financial Stability Report
Annual Budget –
GDP forecast 2018/19 2.1% vs previous 2.9%
CNY
Manufacturing PMI
(moves into contraction)
Equities
Dipping from highs
Gold
Consolidating
Oil
Recovery from technical selling?
API Inventories:
-5.3m vs exp -0.9m
EIA Inventories:
-0.3m vs exp -0.9m

3. Week 22 Review
An almost solidly risk-off week, capped at the end by Trump placing a drastic tariff threat on Mexico.
The US provided the only decent economic news, with GDP and PCE coming in on expectation. Elsewhere it was
pretty much solid red – German CPI and Retail Sales, Japan CPI and Chinese Manufacturing Production all missed expectations. Further, the RBNZ made a big cut to forecast GDP and JP Morgan called for four rate cuts in Australia.
On the W1 chart…
Most equities drop to the 38 Fib, with the Japan 225 dropping below the 62 Fib, propelled by the strong JPY.
WTI almost hits the 62 Fib and GOLD rises significantly.
USD maintains its upwards trend.
EUR moves down, having technically broken its downwards trend in week 21.
JPY moves up in an almost unbroken run since early April.
GBP continues to drop on Brexit uncertainty.
AUD stages a modest recovery despite real pressure on interest rates.

4. 23 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 3/6/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
China issues paper blaming US for breakdown in trade talks; Goldman Sachs reduces Q2 US GDP forecast.
US says China misrepresenting trade talks.
Nasdaq in correction territory as US gov announces anti-trust probes into big tech.
US yields falling.
China holds mtg on rare earth exports and advises against US travel
US reaches agreement with Mexico and tariffs suspended indefinitely – Twitter 1731 Friday
Risk
Off On
Neutral
Neutral/on
Themes
Equities; AUD weakness (vs USD, JPY), WTI, (USDTRY added after the video was made)
USD
Up trend broken
ISM Manu PMI;
Fed’s Bullard is first Fed member to call for rate cut
Fed Chair Powell speaks - Tues 14:55 – Fed Chair Powell allude to rate cuts, other voters mixed
ISM Non-Manu PMI
Average Hourly Earnings;
NFP (75K vs 177K)
Unemployment Rate
EUR
Down trend broken
German Bund yields hit all-time low as manu sector contracts
Monetary Policy Statement
Press Conference – rates held until at least mid 2020 (prev. end 2019).
JPY
Swing
GBP
Down
Manufacturing PMI
Construction PMI
Services PMI
CAD
No trend
Trade Balance
(Un)employment
AUD
Rally on downtrend?
Retail Sales;
Cash Rate/Statement –
25bp cut as expected
GDP
NZD
Holiday
CNY
Caixin Manu PMI
Equities
Dipping from highs
Powell’s comments boost equities
Gold
Powell boost
Oil
Recovery from technical selling?
API Inventories:
+3.55m vs exp -0.8m
EIA Inventories:
+6.8m vs exp -1.7m

5. Week 23 Review
A very good week for global equities, particularly in the US. The jump is caused by three issues:
Fed members calling for or hinting at a rate cut, Powell included
the ending of the Mexico sanctions threat
a very poor NFP print (driving expectations of a rate cut which is positive for equities)
On the W1 chart…
Global equities significantly up.
USD significantly down on rate cut expectations, making a lower low.
JPY has first down week since late March.
EUR moves up, producing a second higher high.
GOLD moves up, driven by the weak USD.

6. 24 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 10/6/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
Global Times - Beijing preparing for worsening relationship
US NEC Director Kudlow says China has broken WTO terms and Trump will take action
Risk
Neutral
Neutral/on
Themes
Equities, GOLD short, AUDUSD short, GBP strength, USDTRY
USD
Up trend broken
(Headline/Core) CPI
Retail Sales – on target and significant upwards revisions to prior – USD rises
EUR
Down trend broken
Holiday
JPY
Swing
GBP
Down
GDP;
Manufacturing Production;
BoE Haldane and Saunders says return to neutral policy (2%) sooner than expected may be required
Average Earnings
Labour’s parliamentary control bill defeated
CAD
No trend
AUD
Rally on downtrend?
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
(Un)employment
NZD
CNY
Trade Balance
Fixed Asset Investment;
Industrial Production
Equities
Rising on rate cut hopes
Gold
At major resistance
Oil
Recovery from technical selling?
API Inventories:
+4.9m vs exp -0.5m;
OPEC President says near cut extension; EIA downgrades short term oil demand for 2019/20.
EIA Inventories:
+2.2m vs exp -0.1m
OPEC-JMMC Mtgs;
Tanker “incidents” in the Gulf of Oman
US accuse Iran of tanker attacks – positive for WTI, bad for sentiment

7. Week 24 Review
A very quiet week with little action. Global equities hold the prior week’s gains but go nowhere. WTI drops despite further tanker attacks in the Gulf. GOLD holds its position just below major resistance. On currencies, the AUD continues to decline after gloomy Consumer Sentiment from Westpac and a miss on Unemployment. The USD rises all week and then gets a further boost on Friday as Retail Sales seems to lessen the chance of a rate cut. The corresponding move in equities (a fall) doesn’t occur.
On the W1 chart…
Global equities static.
USD significantly up on safe haven flows and then Retail Sales.
JPY moves up slightly.
EUR establishes an up trend.
AUD continues to feel rate cut pressure.
GBP grinds below support as no-deal Brexit looms.
WTI closes down and bang on the 62 Fib.
GOLD is volatile but closes near the open.

8. 25 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 17/6/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
Trump sending 1000 troops to Gulf
Trump saying he will have "extended meeting" with Xi next week in Osaka at the G20.
Iran says it shot down a US drone. US deny this.
Trump says he has the authority to remove Powell.
Risk
Neutral/off
Themes
Weak AUD, equities, GOLD
USD
Up trend broken
Fed Funds, Economic Projections, Statement and Press Conference
EUR
Up trend established
ECB head Draghi says if outlook doesn’t improve and inflation doesn’t strengthen, "additional stimulus will be required" adding that the ECB can amend its forward guidance, that rate cuts remain “part of our tools” and asset purchases (more QE!) are also an option.
FR and DE Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
JPY
Swing
Monetary Policy Statement
GBP
No deal fear
CPI
Retail Sales;
Super Thursday
CAD
No trend
Retail Sales
AUD
Rate cuts
Expected
Macquarie expects rate at 0.50% by year end
Monetary Policy Mtg Mins –
“further easing likely”
RBA Governor Lowe
NZD
Following AUD
GDP
CNY
Equities
Consolidating
Gold
At major resistance
Oil
API Inventories:
-0.81m vs exp -1.1m
EIA Inventories:
-3.1m vs exp -1.5m

9. Figures are medians 2.25-2.50% 2.50-2.75% 2.50%-2.75%
% % %-2.75%
% % %-2.50%
Figures are medians