1. Is the BRI a game-changer? Connectivity, the Global Value Chain
and the Rise of China as a New Centre of the World Economy?
J-C Defraigne
UCLouvain Saint-Louis, IEE
Louvain School of Management
June 2019

3. BRI: a defensive strategy to integrate the Eurasian continent and its neighborhood
Going west to escape the US pivot to Asia (Wang Jisi) and to reduce the Malacca straight’s dilemma
To be able to check the capacity of advanced economies (The US, the EU and Japan) to impose trade rules through large regional (TPP, TTIP, EU Mercosur) or bilateral trade agreeements
To integrate better China’s Western provinces
To ensure market access to Europe by non institutionnal means: infrastructure and de facto economic integration
To generate more outlets for Chinese manufacturing in order to reduce overcapacities?

4. Assessing the BRI potential effects
Quantitative approach: how big is BRI? Data limitation
A comparison with two other regional integration strategies involving infrastructure projects, exports platform,ODA and FDI:
Japan “flying geese” in Southeast Asia
The EU enlargement toward Eastern Europe
Can BRI foster the technological upgrading of recipient countries and their insertions in IPNs?
To what extent the BRI could modify existing economic relations between the existing centres and the peripheries in East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe?

5. BRI effective spending
Table 1. BRI, Marshall Plan, Flying geese wave and EU enlargement funds compared
Sources: Defraigne 2019, Maddison Project 2008, OECD 2019,
Eurostat 2019, James 2003, Broadberry & Rourke 2010, Berend 2009, IMF 2019, Hillman 2018
BRI
BRI effective spending
Marshall Plan
EU accession funds
Japan flying-geese
Financial aid and loans
(in billions of current US dollars)
$1000
$340
$12,4 to $13
€ 80
$17,76
Duration of the programme
36 years
( )
4 first years ( )
4 years
( )
7 years
( )
( )
Combined GDP of recipient countries for the duration of the programme
(in billions)
$ 12526
(for the year 2017)
$ 41391
(combined )
$$ 887
€ 3935
$18098
Average annual share of GDP
0,22%*
0,82%
1,39%-1,47% 2%
0,1%

6. Exports in blue
imports in red
Source: OEC 2019

7. Export structure of important BRI recipient countries: Pakistan

8. Export structure of important BRI recipient countries: Malaysia

9. Export structure of important BRI recipient countries: Serbia

11. Export structure of important “flying geese” financial flows recipient countries: Thailand

12. Export structure of important “flying geese” financial flows recipient countries: Malaysia

14. Export structures of pre-accession EU financial flows recipient countries: Czech Republic

15. Export structures of pre-accession EU financial flows recipient countries: Hungary

16. Export structures of pre-accession EU financial flows recipient countries: Romania

17. transport costs $ per forty-foot equivalent unit shipping container
Costs of rail, sea and air transport from China to Europe in 2017 (source: Schramm & Zhang 2018)
Transport mode
days of transit
transport costs $ per forty-foot equivalent unit shipping container
Rail 16
6350
Sea 32
2410
Air 4
32490

18. Percentage of GDP spent on R&D (source: World Bank 2019)

19. Table 20. High-tech exports in billions of current dollars (source: World Bank 2019)

20. Medium and high-tech share of total manufactured exports (source: World Bank 2019)

21. Royalties in millions of current dollars (source: World Bank 2019)

22. GDP per capita in current dollars (source: World Bank 2019)