1. Forecast Verification time!
Senor Perfect Forecast
80/81 84 6 ….

2. 4 pm = 6
5 pm = 2

3. SPC storm reports

4. DAY 2
DAY 2

5. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Increase instability
Troposphere
Make it colder aloft - ?
Measures of:
Lifted Index (LI)
CAPE
Make it warmer near surface – How ?

6. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Low-level moisture
Measured by:
Dew Point
- Minimally 60+
- Preferably 70+
Moist air advection
WARM
WATER

7. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Upper level support JS JS JS
Noted by:
500mb pattern
- Trough in flow
- Well-defined vorticity max, X
WARM
WATER

8. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:
Da Winds …
Speed sheer
Directional sheer

9. Strong Thunderstorm ingredients:JS JS JS
Sheer
Noted by:
500mb pattern
- Trough in flow
- Well-defined vorticity max, X
WARM
WATER

11. Thunderstorm ingredients:
Surface pressure
500 mb - aloft L X
Warm/moist
700 mb – Relative humidity

13. L
SPC Storm Archive

14. Cyclogenesis – How storms form

15. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

16. Surface Weather Maps H

17. 500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS)
This Afternoon L x H H

18. 500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS)
This Afternoon L L H H

20. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map EWALL - Soundings

23. RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation
- Varies between?
- If in a cloud ….. RH = ?
Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v)
T = 85
D = 65
RH = 51%
How can we make a cloud?
RH Calculator