1. Part Five: Political & Economic Change
“A confidence problem exists on the part of the people of the region who desire democratic rule in principle, but remain suspicious of both the fashion with which democratization is presented and the purposes of the democratic world.” -- Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Prime Minister of Turkey)

2. Political and Economic Change
Occur together and often influence one another
Types of Change
Reform
Does not advocate overthrowing basic institutions
Revolution
Either a major revision or overthrowing basic institutions
Usually has major impact in more than one area
Coup d'état
Replace leadership with new leaders
Use of force, often by the military
Political and Economic Change:
If one occurs without the other, tensions are created that have serious consequences.
Ex: rapid economic changes in China have strongly pressured the govt to institute political changes. So far they have resisted those changes.
Reform:
Want to change some of the methods that political and economic leaders use to reach goals that society generally accepts
Ex – may want to change business practices in order to preserve real competition in a capitalist country, or may want govt to become more proactive in preserving natural environment
Revolution:
Ex: Industrial Rev changed economies of Europe (feudalism to capitalism) but eventually changed political systems, social classes, etc
Ex: Fr/Amer Rev were directed at changing political systems, but also changed economies and societal practices
Coup d’etats:
Literally “blows to the state”
Most limited of the 3 types of change
Typically occur in countries where govt institutions are weak and leaders have taken control by force
New leaders are always vulnerable to being overthrown by another coup

3. Political Economy Handout
See separate handout from Mr. Heim

5. Attitudes Toward Change
Radicalism
Rapid, dramatic changes
Replace current system with something better
Liberalism
Gradual change instead of revolution
Conservatism
Less supportive of change
Reactionaries
Protect against change
Want to turn the clock back to an earlier era
Similar to radicals, would be willing to use force
“When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. “ Martin Luther King, Jr.
Radicalism
Ex: In 1917 in Russia, the old czarist regime was replaced by communist USSR
Radicals are often leaders of revolution
Liberalism:
Not the same as liberal ideology
Supports reform – don’t think political/econ systems are permanently broken, but need to be fixed/improved
Conservatism
Tend to see change as disruptive
Don’t want to undermine legitimacy of state/regime
Reactionary:
Oppose revolution and reform, but also don’t want status quo
Want to reinstate political, social and econ institutions that once existed (ex. KKK wants to restore institutional racism)
Like radicals they are more willing to use violence than Liberals/Conservatives

6. Three Trends of Development
Democratization
Move Towards Market Economies
Revival of Ethnic/Cultural Politics
Indicates growing commonalities among nations
Represents fragmentation
Review of Democracies:
Democracy takes many forms
One broad, essential requirement is existence of competitive elections (regular, free and fair)
Gray area – Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia
Liberal/Substantive Democracies:
Competitive elections, civil liberties, rule of law, neutral judiciary, open civil society, civilian control of military
Illiberal/Procedural Democracies:
Have democratic procedures in place, but have significant restrictions
Ex. Have rule of law, but not always followed by those in power
Ex. Presidents have disproportionate share of power
Ex. Elections lack true competitiveness
*Presence of a procedural democracy (illiberal) is a necessary condition for development of a substantive democracy (liberal)

7. Review of Democratization (see handout)
The spread of representative governments to more countries and the process of making governments more representative…
The transformation process from a nondemocratic regime to a illiberal/procedural democracy to a liberal/substantive democracy
What must be present to qualify as a procedural democracy?
What must be present to qualify as a substantive democracy?
Review of Democracies:
Democracy takes many forms
One broad, essential requirement is existence of competitive elections (regular, free and fair)
Gray area – Russia, Nigeria, Indonesia
Liberal/Substantive Democracies:
Competitive elections, civil liberties, rule of law, neutral judiciary, open civil society, civilian control of military
Illiberal/Procedural Democracies:
Have democratic procedures in place, but have significant restrictions
Ex. Have rule of law, but not always followed by those in power
Ex. Presidents have disproportionate share of power
Ex. Elections lack true competitiveness
*Presence of a procedural democracy (illiberal) is a necessary condition for development of a substantive democracy (liberal)

8. Review of Democratization
Discussion Question:
TRUE or FALSE (be prepared to defend your answer):
The presence of an illiberal/procedural is a necessary condition for development of a liberal/substantive democracy
True!
Presence of a procedural democracy (illiberal) is a necessary condition but not sufficient for development of a substantive democracy (liberal)

10. Three Trends of Development - #1 Democratization
Huntington’s 3 Waves of Democratization
1st wave – developed gradually over time
2nd wave – occurred after Allied victory in WWII
3rd wave – characterized by defeat of totalitarian rulers in S. Amer, Eastern Eur and parts of Africa
Samuel Huntington, political scientist
Huntington’s 3 Waves:
2nd wave continued until 1960s –characterized by decolonization around the globe
3rd wave began during 70’s - now

11. Three Trends of Development - #1 Democratization
Reasons for Democratization
Loss of legitimacy by authoritarian regimes
Expansion of middle class
New emphasis on human rights
“Snowball Effect”
Starts with political liberalization
Democratic consolidation
A stable political system is supported by all parts of society
Reasons for Democratization
Loss of legitimacy by both right and left wing authoritarian regimes
Expansion of middle class in developing countries
New emphasis on human rights by U.S. and European Union
Snowball Effect – when one country in a region becomes democratic, it influences others to do so
Ex. Poland’s influence on other nations of eastern Europe in 1980’s, also Arab Spring
Huntington believes democracy may be declared when a country has had a least two successive peaceful turnovers of power.
Democratic Consolidation
An authoritarian regime may transition to a democracy as a result of a “trigger event,” such as an economic crisis or military defeat
Political discontent is generally fueled if the crisis is preceded by a period of relative improvement in standard of living – called “revolution of rising expectations.”
Democratization begins when these conditions are accompanied by a willingness on part of ruling elite to accept power-sharing arrangements and readiness of ppl to participate in democratic process
Political Liberalization
Eventually leads other states to recognize it as a liberal democracy

12. Three Trends of Development - #2 Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Ideology of liberalism from 19th century Europe
Bourgeoisie – middle class professionals/businessmen
More political & economic freedoms
Right to own property, freedom of speech, representation, free trade
Radicals (such as Karl Marx) advocated more equality
Command Economy
Government owned industrial enterprises & sales outlets
Economy managed by central government planning
5-year plans very common
Ideology of Liberalism from 19th century Europe
Bourgeoisie wanted their views to be represented in government and their economic goals to be unhampered by govt interference
These values clashed with radicals who emphasized equality more than liberty
Command Economies:
Central planning supported economic growth by in many cases, esp in Soviet Union, by 1980s most communist countries found themselves in deep economic trouble.

13. Three Trends of Development - #2 Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Trend toward market economies based on private ownership of property and little interference from govt regulation
Mixed economy – some government involvement
Pure Market economy – no government involvement
Economic Liberalization:
Process of limiting the power of the state over private property and market forces
Privatization:
Transfer of state-owned property to private ownership
Economic Liberalization:
Less gov’t involvement in economy

14. Command vs. Mixed vs. Market Economies
More Centralization
Less Centralization
Right to own property is greatly restricted
All industry is owned by the govt
Competition and profit are prohibited
Elements of command and market economies are present/mixed
Right to own property is accepted/guaranteed
Most industry is owned by private individuals.
Competition and profit are not controlled by the govt

15. Command vs. Mixed vs. Market Economies
More Centralization
Less Centralization
COMMAND
ECONOMY
MIXED
ECONOMY
MARKET
ECONOMY
Right to own property is greatly restricted
All industry is owned by the govt
Competition and profit are prohibited
Elements of command and market economies are present/mixed
Right to own property is accepted/guaranteed
Most industry is owned by private individuals.
Competition and profit are not controlled by the govt

16. Three Trends of Development – #2: Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Discussion Question: Is there a correlation between democratization and marketization?

17. Three Trends of Development – #2: Economic Liberalism and Market Economies
Discussion Question: Is there a correlation between democratization and marketization?
Mexico has moved steadily toward a market economy since 1980’s and democratization has appeared to follow
China has been moving toward capitalism since late 1970’s without any clear sign of democratization

19. Three Trends of Development #3 Revival of Ethnic or Cultural Politics
Fragmentation vs. nationalism
Politicization of Religion
Esp. in Middle East
Tends to emphasize difference among nations
Fragmentation – divisions based on ethnic or cultural identity
Nationalism – identities based on nationhood – had been declining in favor of increasing globalization
Politicization of Religion – 21st century
Samuel Huntingon argued that our most important and dangerous future conflicts will be based on clashes of civilizations:
The West
Orthodox world (Russia)
Islamic Countries
Latin American
Africa
The Hindu world
The Confucian world
The Buddhist world
Japan

20. Part Six: Public Policy
“Justice is itself the great standing policy of civil society; and any eminent departure from it, under any circumstances, lies under the suspicion of being no policy at all.” – Edmund Burke (Irish statesman)

21. Public Policy
Decisions the govt makes to address issues and solve problems
Inputs:
Interest Articulation Interest Aggregation
Machines are the political institutions: Legislature, Executive, Bureaucracy
Outputs/
Outcomes:
Policy Implementation
Gears=Policy Making

22. Public Policy Common issues: Economic Performance Social Welfare
Civil Liberties
Environment

23. Public Policy – Economic Performance
Common Measures of Economic Performance
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
All the goods and services produced by a country’s economy in a given year, excluding income earned outside country
GDP per Capita: GDP divided by population of country
Gross National Product (GNP)
GDP + income citizens earned outside the country
GNP per Capita: GNP divided by population of country
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Like GNP, except it takes into account what people can buy using their income in local economy
PPP per Capita: PPP divided by population of country

24. Comparative Economic Indexes (2010)
CHINA
IRAN
MEXICO
NIGERIA
RUSSIA
BRITAIN
GDP
(in billions)
3,206
286
1,032
165
1,290
2,772
GDP per Capita
4,400
8,900
1,400
10,600
36,200
PPP per Capita
7,600
13,900
2,500
15,900
34,800

25. Public Policy – Economic Performance
Discussion Question:
Analyze the data in the previous slide. How does the measure of economic performance (index) used change the conclusions you are likely to make when comparing countries in the AP6? (Be specific)

26. Public Policy – Economic Performance
Discussion Question:
Analyze the data in the previous slide. How does the measure of economic performance (index) used change the conclusions you are likely to make when comparing countries in the AP6? (Be specific)
If you just use GDP, Iran appears far below China and Mexico, but if we use PPP per capita, Iranians are economically better off than the Chinese and are similar to the Mexicans
China exceeds Iran and Mexico in GDP, but in GDP per capita it equals Iran and falls below Mexico. In PPP per capita, China falls below both Iran and Mexico
Russia more than doubles Iran’s GDP per capita, but when adjusted for PPP per capita, Russia do not earn twice as much

27. Purchasing Power Parity

28. Public Policy – Social Welfare
Health
Employment
Family assistance
Education
Measures of Social Welfare
Literacy rates
Distribution of income
Life expectancy
Education levels

29. Public Policy – Social Welfare
Gini Index
A mathematical formula that measures the amount of economic inequality in a society
0 = perfect equality, 1= complete inequality
U.S. (2009)
.41 UK
.36
Russia
.375
Iran
.383
China
.415
Nigeria
.43
Mexico
.48

30. Public Policy – Economic Performance
Discussion Question:
Analyze the data in the previous slide. How does the U.S. compare in terms of inequality to the countries in the AP6? (Be specific)

31. Public Policy – Economic Performance
Discussion Question:
Analyze the data in the previous slide. How does the U.S. compare in terms of inequality to the countries in the AP6? (Be specific)
More inequality than: UK, Russia, Iran
About the same as: China & Nigeria
Less than Mexico

33. Public Policy – Social Welfare
Human Development Index (HDI)
Measures the well-being of a country’s people by factoring in life expectancy (health), mean & expected years of school (education) and GNP per capita (living standards)
Health + Education + Living Standards = HDI
Index Scale
Index scale is 0 – 1 (decimal score)
Scores over .80 = high levels of HD
Scores under .50 = low levels of HD

34. Public Policy – Social Welfare

35. Human Development Index Darker colors indicate more developed

36. Public Policy Civil Liberties: Political Rights and Freedoms
Political rights – promotion of equality
Political freedoms – promotion of freedom
Freedom House Rankings
Ranks countries on 1 to 7 scale
1 = most free, 7 = least free
Country (2013)
Rating
Political Rights
Civil Liberties
China
Not Free 7 6
Iran
Mexico
Partially Free 3
Nigeria 4
Russia 5 UK
Free 1 US

37. Public Policy - Challenges
Globalization
The increasing interconnectedness and interdependence of people, cultures, economies, and nation-states facilitated by technology, trade, and cultural diffusion (more on this to come)
Environment
European countries – formation of “green” parties
International conferences
Population
Immigration + migration
Terrorism

38. Public Policy - Challenges
Corruption:
The illegitimate use of political or economic power for personal or illegal purposes
Transparency International is an NGO that evaluates & publicizes report of corruption in business/politics.
Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)
Ranks Countries 0 (very corrupt) – 100 (very clean)
Predict: Which countries of the AP6 will have the least corruption? The most?

39. Public Policy- answering of Questions
How do governments differ as producers of goods and services?
In communist societies, the government controls industries as private ownership is not permitted (China is the exception today)
In free market societies, the government controls a very small number of producers of goods and services
in socialist societies, the governments often own a larger number of critical producers of goods and services

40. So how do governments differ in distributive policies?
Developed countries allocate ½ or more of governmental expenditures to education, health, and welfare
Developing countries spend very little on health and education (Why is this a “catch-22” for developing countries?)
Spending on national security varies widely among developed and developing countries depending on internal and external threats

41. What has been a trend in distributive policies since the 20th century?
Vast increase in distributive policies, especially in Western European “welfare states”
Public policies in these states emphasize achieving equity by providing services such as old age pensions, health, sickness insurance, unemployment benefits, child care, etc.
Accompanied by high taxation rates

42. Why is it important to measure domestic welfare outcomes?
Examine the effectiveness of public policies
Such welfare outcomes include sanitation and health, communication and information, education, and literacy
Developed countries have far higher literacy rates, lower mortality rates, and fertility rates then do developing countries

43. Why is it important to measure domestic security outcomes?
Without domestic security, the conduct of personal, economic, and civil life are impossible
High crime rates are often a development of rural migration into cities, inequality of incomes, unemployment, etc
Strong and fair law enforcement often has a positive effect on security outcomes