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Creation of a Quantitative Score to Predict the Need for Mechanical Support in Children Awaiting Heart Transplant  Ryan R. Davies, MD, Shylah Haldeman,

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Presentation on theme: "Creation of a Quantitative Score to Predict the Need for Mechanical Support in Children Awaiting Heart Transplant  Ryan R. Davies, MD, Shylah Haldeman,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Creation of a Quantitative Score to Predict the Need for Mechanical Support in Children Awaiting Heart Transplant  Ryan R. Davies, MD, Shylah Haldeman, RN, Michael A. McCulloch, MD, Christian Pizarro, MD  The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  Volume 98, Issue 2, Pages (August 2014) DOI: /j.athoracsur Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

2 Fig 1 Distribution of prediction scores within (A) derivation cohort and (B) validation cohort. (MCS = mechanical circulatory support.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

3 Fig 2 Observed incidence of primary outcome (death or need for mechanical circulatory support [MCS] within 2 months) by PedsMCS score among (A) entire study population, (B) derivation cohort, and (C) validation cohort. Bar graphs illustrate the incidence of the primary outcome by PedsMCS score with patients aggregated into 4 groups: low risk, 0 to 5; moderate risk, 6 to 10; high risk, 11 to 15; and very high risk, ≥16; p < ) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

4 Fig 3 Observed versus expected (predicted) incidence of primary outcome (need for MCS or death within 2 months of listing) within the (A) validation cohort and (B) derivation cohort. (Diamonds = observed incidence at each PedsMCS score; solid black line = predicted incidence with 95% confidence intervals shown in gray; dotted line = observed mortality best-fit Lowess smooth line; MCS = mechanical circulatory support.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

5 Fig 4 Kaplan-Meier estimates of long-term survival on the waitlist (censored at transplant or removal from the list) stratified by PedsMCS score risk group. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

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