1. The Economic Outlook for the U.S. and Montana
Patrick M. Barkey, Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research University of Montana

2. The U.S. Economic Expansion: Nine Ten Years and Counting
U.S. growth surge is a global outlier
Taxes and spending: higher growth, bigger deficits
Inflation nowhere in sight
Trade and housing are laggards, consumer and business spending carrying the load
The services economy is in charge, manufacturing growth is stalling
Interest rates on the way up down   

3. There Was an Acceleration in U. S
There Was an Acceleration in U.S. Growth Last Year Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Percent, Actual and Forecast
Forecast
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Markit

4. Advanced Economies Expected to Decelerate as Global Growth Levels Off
Percent
Advanced Economies
Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product, Actual and Forecast Source: International Monetary Fund

5. Global Growth Has Been Good, But Challenges Emerge Number of Advanced Economies in Recession, by Year,
107 Recessions
19 Predicted Recessions
Source: International Monetary Fund

7. Materials & Foodstuffs
Mixed Story for Most Important Commodities Select Commodity Prices June 2019 vs. 5-Year High and Low
[Current]
Materials & Foodstuffs
(as of June 2019)
Low
High
297
564
($ per Thousand BF)
Framing Lumber
359 current
Low
High
2.03
3.23
($ per pound)
Copper
2.67
Metals & Energy
(as of June 2019)
1.59
2.72
($ per Pound)
Beef
2.03
4.89
3.34
6.49
($ per bushel)
Wheat, SRW
4.62
1.81
2.87
Barley
2.73
502.52
($ per troy oz.)
Palladium
0.69
1.60
($ per pound)
Zinc
1.18
30.34
102.99
($ per Barrel)
Oil
54.67
4.75
Source: World Bank, USDA, Random Lengths
Source: International Monetary Fund

8. Is Montana Invited to the National Economic Party?
Growth since 2016 has continued
Labor market continues to tighten
State revenue growth has been good
Global economic environment has worsened
Dark clouds looming for Powder River basin coal
Recovery for Montana’s agriculture and energy producers has not been smooth
Tech is an under-reported good news story

9. State Economic Earnings Slowed in 2018 Percent Growth, Inflation-Corrected Nonfarm Earnings, Montana
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

10. Recent Growth is Broad Based Change in Inflation-Corrected Wages by Industry, Montana, Through 2019Q1
$Millions
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

11. Billings and Non-Urban Counties Performing Better Change in Inflation-Corrected Wages by County, Montana, Through 2019Q1
$ Millions
Source: U.S. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

20. Montana Labor Market Still Tightening Unemployment Insurance Claims, 2017-19
2019
2018
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry

21. Growth in Population of Prime Age Workers Has Stagnated Montana Population by Age-Category, Selected Years
Source: UM Bureau of Business and Economic Research

22. Montana Growth is Low by Western Standards Percent Growth in Real Nonfarm Earnings, 2017
5.6%
2.7%
-0.9%
4.7%
4.3%
-0.4%
-0.1%
4.5%
3.8%
4.9%
3.9%
More than 4.3% 2.2% - 4.3% 0.7% - 2.2% Less than 0.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

23. Montana Growth is Low by Western Standards Percent Growth in Real Nonfarm Earnings, 2018
5.7%
1.5%
-1.9%
2.8%
3.9%
-1.6%
-2.0%
3.8%
4.6%
3.5%
2.9%
More than 4.3% 2.2% - 4.3% 0.7% - 2.2% Less than 0.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

24. Personal Income Growth Compares Better Here Percent Growth in Real Personal Income, 2018
4.7%
2.9%
2.5%
2.8%
3.3%
-2.1%
2.4%
3.6%
4.2%
3.6%
2.6%
More than 3.3% 2.4% - 3.3% 2.0% - 2.4% Less than 2.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

25. Income is Much More Than Earnings Montana Real Personal Income, 2017 and 2018
Transfers
Property
Earnings

26. Transfer Income Punches Above Its Weight Growth in Montana Real Personal Income, 2018
Earnings
Property
Transfers

28. Outlook for Montana’s Key Industries
Tech related businesses and construction remain healthy, especially in western Montana
Farm bill passage helps farmers
Uncertainties for energy and natural resource producers
Real estate and financial institutions set for another good year
Transportation industries slowly improving
Tariff and trade challenges ahead?

29. Growth in Nonfarm Earnings, Montana, 2016-22
Percent
Actual
Projected
Source: BBER and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source: BBER and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

30. Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for Montana
Patrick M. Barkey, Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research University of Montana

31. Montana Population Tree46
Year: 2001
Males
Females

32. Montana Population Tree56
Year: 2011
Males
Females

33. Montana Population Tree66
Year: 2021
Males
Females

34. Montana is the Oldest Western State Median Age, 2017
37.6
39.8
35.1
39.2
35.9
36.8
37.0
37.7
30.5
36.5
36.1
More than – – 36.9 Less than 36.3
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

35. Median Age, 2017

36. $49 mil
$128 mil
$57 mil
-$20 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

37. $254 mil
$352 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

38. -$32 mil
$4 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

39. $30 mil
$62 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

40. -$42 mil
-$116 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

41. $63 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service
$113 mil

42. $97 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service
$105 mil

43. $244 mil
$288 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

44. $4.9 mil
-$7.8 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service

45. -$9.4 mil
Source: Internal Revenue Service
-$6.5 mil

46. People are Leaving Largest U. S. Cities Net Domestic Migration, U. S
People are Leaving Largest U.S. Cities Net Domestic Migration, U.S., by County Size,

47. Demographic Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
Migration trends can change population projections
Labor force challenges likely to persist or worsen in coming years
Some solutions to labor shortages are better than others
Time for thinking outside the box?