1. How transformational change promotes ambitious NDCs
Assessing the potential and impacts of policies and actions

2. Outline Introductions Transformational Change - the ICAT definition
Methodological steps
Sharing of pilot experiences

3. Introductions
To the session and to ICAT

4. Objectives and expected outcomes of the session
To understand the concept of 'Transformational change' as defined in the ICAT Transformational Change Methodology and;
To know how it applies to assessment of policies and actions for enhanced ambition of NDC implementation.
Expected outcomes;
Participants will know of examples on how information on transformational impact can support climate finance decisions, policy design and international transparency;
Participants are better prepared to undertake their own assessments of transformational impact of policies and actions for enhanced ambition of NDC implementation

5. ICAT's objectives
Provide policymakers around the world with tools and support to assess the impacts of their climate policies and actions, to develop effective and ambitious climate action and mobilize investment.
Towards this overall goal ICAT:
Provides methodologies, tools, and metrics to assess policy effectiveness
Supports counties to develop their capacity in building and using transparency for their policy processes

6. ICAT Methodologies

7. Multi-stakeholder partnership

8. Transformational Change
The ICAT definition

9. The ICAT definition
Transformational change is defined in this methodology as:
A fundamental, sustained change of a system that disrupts established high-carbon practices and contributes to a zero-carbon society in line with the Paris Agreement’s °C temperature goal and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

10. Characteristics of Transformational Change

11. Examples of transformational change
Types of change
Examples
Incremental
Reform
Transformation
Waste
Less waste
(waste regime)
Waste recycling
Cradle to Cradle
no waste regime)
Racism
Reduction of discrimination
(racial segregation regime)
More rights for the discriminated
Same rights for all
(no racial segregation)
Climate change mitigation
Increasing energy efficiency
(lower carbon regime)
Promoting renewable energies
(low carbon regime)
Abandoning fossil energy, using 100% renewables
(carbon neutral regime)
Source: GIZ (forthcoming).

12. Informed by sustainability transition theories

13. Methodology development process
Secretariat
Drafting team
Technical Working Group
Review Group
Pilot testing

14. Time plan to finalize ICAT methodologies

15. Methodology
Steps to assess the transformational impact of policies and actions

16. Structure of the methodology

17. Describe the policy and define the assessment boundary and period (Ch
Recommended information to describe the policy - template provided
Define the assessment boundary
Impacts covered, geographical and sectoral coverage
Define the assessment period

18. Identify the Phase of Transformation (Ch.6)

19. Describe the vision for TC (Ch. 6)
Time
Example: Solar PV policy
Long-term (≥15 years):
Contributing to the global vision of zero-carbon and sustainable development, the desired future change is to achieve zero carbon electricity production. The 2050 vision is to achieve 60% solar PV in the national electricity mix and create 2 million new green jobs. The policy, however, does not result in a significant change at the global level.
Medium-term (≥5 years and <15 years):
The mid-term vision by 2030 is to achieve 30% solar PV in the national electricity mix and create a million new green jobs. In addition, the policy has set the following goals at the national/sectoral level:
Annual emission reductions of 20 million tCOR2Re
200,000 new green jobs (e.g., in solar PV installation and maintenance sectors)
Short-term (<5 years):
The short-term vision by 2022 is to install 40 GW of rooftop solar PV and create 200,000 new green jobs in doing so. The solar PV policy is implemented at subnational levels supported by incentives for private sector involvement and knowledge development. In rural districts and towns solar PV mini-grids enable economic growth, poverty reduction and new jobs.

20. Choosing which TC characteristics to assess (Ch 6)

21. Assessing the starting situation (Ch. 7)
Identify indicators to describe the starting situation
(Section 7.1)
Provide values for indicators to describe the starting situation

22. Transformational impact assessment (Ch. 8-9) - Tonga case
Technology
Agents
Incentives
Norms

23. Monitoring & Reporting (Ch 10-11)
Develop a monitoring plan
Monitor indicators over time
Communicate to your audience the recommended information, including:
Information about the policy and vision of transformational change
Assessment results & how will these be used to inform policy design or implementation
Underlying assumptions, data sources, etc.

24. Learning, decision making, interpreting results (Ch 12)

25. More information Contacts: Karen Olsen, UNEP DTU Partnership
Neelam Singh, World Resources Institute

26. Pilot case studies
Sharing of experiences

27. Questions for RT discussions
What examples of transformational change do you know?
How can information on transformational impact of policies and actions be useful in climate finance decisions, policy design and transparency?
What are the expected time, skills and resource requirements to do your own assessment of transformational impact in support of enhanced ambition of NDC implementation?