Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Constructing influence diagrams

Published byGerd Kolbe Modified over 5 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Constructing influence diagrams"— Presentation transcript:

1 Constructing influence diagrams
Decision-maker: EPA Decision: Permit use of potentially carcinogenic chemical? Alternative courses of action Permit Restrict Ban Uncertainty: hazards Imperfect information: test and survey

2 Consequences Decision Value Usage decision Economic value Net value Cancer cost

3 Uncertain events Decision Consequences Value Usage decision Economic value Exposure rate Net value Cancer cost Carcinogenic potential Cancer risk

4 Imperfect information Uncertain events Decision Consequences Value Test Usage decision Survey Economic value Exposure rate Net value Cancer cost Carcinogenic potential Cancer risk

Download ppt "Constructing influence diagrams"

Similar presentations

Toxics Use Reduction Institute Alternatives Assessment: An Overview Pam Eliason Toxics Use Reduction Institute 978-934-3142.

Toxics Use Reduction Institute Alternatives Assessment: An Overview Pam Eliason Toxics Use Reduction Institute
A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200

A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200
The role of Risk Assessment in Environmental Assessments American Chamber of Commerce Meeting.

The role of Risk Assessment in Environmental Assessments American Chamber of Commerce Meeting.
Decision analysis: part 1 BSAD 30 Dave Novak Source: Anderson et al., 2013 Quantitative Methods for Business 12 th edition – some slides are directly from.

Decision analysis: part 1 BSAD 30 Dave Novak Source: Anderson et al., 2013 Quantitative Methods for Business 12 th edition – some slides are directly from.
Influence Diagrams & Basic Decision Trees

Influence Diagrams & Basic Decision Trees
1 Chapter 12 Value of Information. 2 Chapter 12, Value of information Learning Objectives: Probability and Perfect Information The Expected Value of Information.

1 Chapter 12 Value of Information. 2 Chapter 12, Value of information Learning Objectives: Probability and Perfect Information The Expected Value of Information.
Utility Axioms Axiom: something obvious, cannot be proven Utility axioms (rules for clear thinking)

Utility Axioms Axiom: something obvious, cannot be proven Utility axioms (rules for clear thinking)
Elements of Decision Problems

Elements of Decision Problems
Forsigtighedstilgang – gevinst eller stopklods Precautionary Principle good or bad for innovation Bjorn Gaarn Hansen Head of Unit: Chemicals Directorate:

Forsigtighedstilgang – gevinst eller stopklods Precautionary Principle good or bad for innovation Bjorn Gaarn Hansen Head of Unit: Chemicals Directorate:
Case Discussion I BUS 200 Introduction to Risk Management and Insurance Fall 2008 Jin Park Illinois Wesleyan University BUS 200 Introduction to Risk Management.

Case Discussion I BUS 200 Introduction to Risk Management and Insurance Fall 2008 Jin Park Illinois Wesleyan University BUS 200 Introduction to Risk Management.
Binary Decision Diagrams1 BINARY DECISION DIAGRAMS.

Binary Decision Diagrams1 BINARY DECISION DIAGRAMS.
1 Module 2 Modeling Decisions ELEMENTS OF DECISION PROBLEMS.

1 Module 2 Modeling Decisions ELEMENTS OF DECISION PROBLEMS.
CSI 661 - Uncertainty in A.I. Lecture 91. 2 3 Three Main Approaches To Approximate Inference MCMC Variational Methods Loopy belief propagation.

CSI Uncertainty in A.I. Lecture Three Main Approaches To Approximate Inference MCMC Variational Methods Loopy belief propagation.
What is Marketing? Everything What is marketed?  Goods Consumer and industrial  Services  Ideas.

What is Marketing? Everything What is marketed?  Goods Consumer and industrial  Services  Ideas.
Risk Management Strategies in an Uncertain World April 12-13, 2002 Objectives of Roundtable Agenda for Roundtable.

Risk Management Strategies in an Uncertain World April 12-13, 2002 Objectives of Roundtable Agenda for Roundtable.
Why need probabilistic approach? Rain probability How does that affect our behaviour? ?

Why need probabilistic approach? Rain probability How does that affect our behaviour? ?
1 Chapter 3 Structuring Decision. 2 Structuring Decisions Learning Objectives Fundamental steps in model creation Identify and structure values and objectives.

1 Chapter 3 Structuring Decision. 2 Structuring Decisions Learning Objectives Fundamental steps in model creation Identify and structure values and objectives.
Chapter 17 Human Health and Environmental Risks. Three categories of human health risks physical biological chemical.

Chapter 17 Human Health and Environmental Risks. Three categories of human health risks physical biological chemical.
Principles of Engineering System Design Dr T Asokan Decision Making in System Design.

Principles of Engineering System Design Dr T Asokan Decision Making in System Design.
Smoking Hazardous to Your Health B.PORCHELVI 513A.

Smoking Hazardous to Your Health B.PORCHELVI 513A.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google