1. Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio IBIMET-CNR Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

2. Biological cycle of desert locust Schistocerca gregaria (Forskal). Solitary Adult Hopper (5 juvenil stages) Gregary egg laying 80 eggs Gregary Adult Solitary egg laying 90-150 eggs Eggs 3 to 5 generations per year in Africa swarms hatching migration

3. Recession In recession periods desert locusts concentrate in semi-arid and arid regions of Africa, near East and south-West Asia In plague periods they expand over enormous areas covering the 20% of the total surface of the world Plague Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

4. A biblical plague Pharaonic times plagues Plagues in Europe reported in 18th century Twenty century plagues: 1926-1934; 1940-1948; 1949-1963; 1967-1969; 1986-1989; 2003-2004 In 2004 around 4 million hectars have been infested in West Africa. The infestation extended from Sudan to Cape Vert. More severely affected countries: Mauritania, Niger, Mali and Senegal. Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

5. Migratory movements SpringAutumn source FAO Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

6. Importance of meteorological parameters in desert locust cycle In the reproduction phase : soil humidity for eggs opening In the juvenil phase (hopper) : rainfall amounts favourable for vegetation growth accelerate instar development supporting large populations of young locusts In the migratory phase : wind driven movements Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

7. Rainfall amounts in the reproduction phase Are important for the hatching phase and for hopper development (vegetation growth) Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

8. Favourable conditions for eggs laying and hatcing Data source Elaboration: IBIMET-CNR Early start of rainy season in the Sahel Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

9. Weather driven migration Desert locust fly with the winds over long distances: –1954 : North-Africa to British Islands –1988 : West-Africa to the Caribbean (5000km) Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

10. Skyways (Vertical Wind Anomaly) Small infestations in Mediterranean Europe were reported in 2003 and 2004 summer associated with favourable winds 20032004 Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

11. Skyways in May 2004 Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

12. Climate sensitiveness of locust Climatic caracteristic of peak years Favourable winds direction and persistence High rainfall amounts at the beginning and at the end of the cropping season in Sub-saharian Africa (start and lenght of cropping season) High rainfall amounts in Spring in North Africa Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

13. The high inter annual variability in locust infestation is mainly due to the high climate sensitiveness of their reproduction and diffusion phases Climate sensitiveness of locust Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

14. Parameters for predictability in different lifecycle phases Reproduction phase: –Soil humidity –Vegetation development –Lenght of the cropping season in the Sahel Migration phase: –Wind –Vegetation Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

15. Time scales and tools for prediction Short term forecasting Medium term predictions Long term predictions Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

16. Short term monitoring Monitoring of NDVI anomaly (NOAA, Spot Vegetation) Rainfall estimates (Meteosat) The continuous monitoring of rain and vegetation conditions provide important information for monitoring Desert Locust habitats and forecasting locust development Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

17. Seasonal vegetation development Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004 Seasonal vegetation development in southern Mali – AP3A Project

18. Short term monitoring NDVI anomaly over north-Africa and sahel in 2004 Source NASA Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

19. Short term monitoring HOWI zone 3 (Mauritania) Humidity anomaly in the early season Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

20. Short term monitoring Rainfall estimates from satellite Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

21. Short term monitoring 6 hours rainfall estimates from satellite April 29, 2004, 06h00 April 29, 2004, 12h00

22. Short term monitoring Rainfall estimates from satellite Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004 Animation sequence every six hours Oct 13-15, 2004 www.ibimet.cnr.it/Case/sahel/

23. Short term monitoring Rainfall estimates from NWM Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

24. Rainfall estimates from NWM (96 hours forecasting)

25. Medium term predictions Crop season forecasting Risk Zones ZAR (AGRHYMET) Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

26. Medium term predictions Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

27. Medium term predictions Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

28. Medium term predictions Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

29. Long term prediction Seasonal forecasting: SST Geopotential height ITCZ HOWI Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index Previous season late rains Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

30. Sea Surface Temperature Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

31. Geopotential Anomaly Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

32. Hadley Cell Mass streamfunction [1E10 kg/s] (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1971-2002) Hadley, Ferrel and polar cell Changes of Hadley cells affect the descending branch of ITCZ

33. Seasonal migration of descending branches of Hadley cell Seasonal migration of ITCZ ITCZ follows sun declination Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

34. Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

35. Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

36. To optimize actions to fight infestations: –On time pesticide availability –Avoiding of accumulation of potentially obsolete pesticide stocks –Planning of Airplanes campains To provide information for the Food crisis prevention process To provide an assessment of potential impact on food security Objectives for a meteorological warning systems for locust control (MeWaLCo) Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

37. The food crisis prevention process

38. The food crisis prevention process: Regional crisis Scale of event (frequency) Potentially affected population Impact Information and actions MayJuneJulyAug Regional scale famine (1 year every 10 ) Million of inhabitants Survival depends on food aid and on International Organisations PRESAO Warning ITCZ warning and international mobilisation ZAR, SISP Prediction, terrain missions to identify the dimension of the crisis; Logistical planning for food aid Identification of vulnerable areas; Stock distribution Crisis prevention Crisis management Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

39. Impact assessment The impact of outbreaks must be evaluated in function of the vulnerability context of the affected territory Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

40. Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

41. Information flow for an information system for locust control Choc Agricultural campaign monitoring Identification of vulnerable zones and groups (regional/national/local) Production of scenarios Decision making Control actions Monitoring of impacts Start of locust outbreaks Production/diffusion of information Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

42. Availability operational tools Many decision support systems for food security already provides operational imputs that can be useful for locust monitoring The convergence of evidence methodology can be applied to locust early warning Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

43. Climate changes and locust changes NDVI trends 1982-2000 - first decade of May Data NOAA-AVHRR – elaboration IBIMET CNR Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004

44. Conclusions The Locust Control process needs operational tools over different periods of the year: -Early seasonal prediction -Crop season monitoring (start and lenght) -Rainfall estimation from satellite -Rainfall estimation from NWM -Biomasse estimation -Impact matrix assessment All these tools are developed by IBIMET CNR in the framework of MeWaLCo Pilot Project Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models G. Maracchi and L. Genesio WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004