1. NWGA 2018 Outlook Study

2. Cascade Natural Gas Corp. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co.
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255
West Linn, OR
(503)
NWGA Members:
Avista Utilities
Cascade Natural Gas Corp.
FortisBC Energy
Intermountain Gas Co.
NW Natural
Puget Sound Energy
Enbridge BC Pipeline
TC Energy GTN System
Williams NW Pipeline

3. What is “The Outlook”? Topics for today:
Unique look at regional gas dynamics
Topics for today:
Supply (abundant)
Prices (low)
Demand Growth (modest)
Scenarios discontinued
Capacity (sufficient?)

4. Forecast Regional Supply

5. Regional Supply Mix

6. Natural Gas Price
Source: EIA Annual Wellhead Price adjusted to $2017 using BLS CPI

7. Projected Natural Gas Price
Source: EIA 2008/2014/2018 AEO
NW Power Council 7th Power Plan Fuel Price Forecast, 2017 Update

8. Transportation Fuel Price Forecast

9. Recent Gas Demand Gas Customers (2018) Res: 3,287,578 Com: 326,492
Ind: ,047
Total: 3,620,117

10. 2018 Outlook Forecast (1.1% CAGR)

11. Pipeline Capacity ~4 Million Dth
Western Canada Sedimentary Basin via TCPL/GTN: 1.6 Bcf
Rockies via NWP net of Kemmere to Reno: ~0.5 Bcf
WCSB via BCP: ~2 Bcf
Total pipeline capacity in PNW region: ~ 4Bcf

12. Storage ~ 2.8 Million Dth
Peak Day Supply Capacity (Transport + Storage + LNG) = 6.9 million Dth
Forecast Peak Demand (2018/19): 6.6 million Dth
Forecast Peak Demand (2027/28): 7.1 million Dth

13. Supply Demand Balance

14. Questions? Dan Kirschner, Executive Director dkirschner@nwga.org
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255
West Linn, OR
(503)
Questions?
Dan Kirschner, Executive Director