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NWGA 2018 Outlook Study
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Cascade Natural Gas Corp. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co.
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) NWGA Members: Avista Utilities Cascade Natural Gas Corp. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy Enbridge BC Pipeline TC Energy GTN System Williams NW Pipeline
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What is “The Outlook”? Topics for today:
Unique look at regional gas dynamics Topics for today: Supply (abundant) Prices (low) Demand Growth (modest) Scenarios discontinued Capacity (sufficient?)
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Forecast Regional Supply
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Regional Supply Mix
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Natural Gas Price Source: EIA Annual Wellhead Price adjusted to $2017 using BLS CPI
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Projected Natural Gas Price
Source: EIA 2008/2014/2018 AEO NW Power Council 7th Power Plan Fuel Price Forecast, 2017 Update
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Transportation Fuel Price Forecast
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Recent Gas Demand Gas Customers (2018) Res: 3,287,578 Com: 326,492
Ind: ,047 Total: 3,620,117
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2018 Outlook Forecast (1.1% CAGR)
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Pipeline Capacity ~4 Million Dth
Western Canada Sedimentary Basin via TCPL/GTN: 1.6 Bcf Rockies via NWP net of Kemmere to Reno: ~0.5 Bcf WCSB via BCP: ~2 Bcf Total pipeline capacity in PNW region: ~ 4Bcf
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Storage ~ 2.8 Million Dth Peak Day Supply Capacity (Transport + Storage + LNG) = 6.9 million Dth Forecast Peak Demand (2018/19): 6.6 million Dth Forecast Peak Demand (2027/28): 7.1 million Dth
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Supply Demand Balance
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Questions? Dan Kirschner, Executive Director dkirschner@nwga.org
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) Questions? Dan Kirschner, Executive Director
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