1. What We Know About Transfer Students At CUNY
BTAG meeting
JANUARY 14, 2019

2. Presentation outline 1. Transfer pathways 2. Intent to transfer
3. Post-transfer outcomes
4. Future research

3. Trends in New Student Enrollment in Baccalaureate Programs
Since 2001, freshman baccalaureate cohorts have been flat or decreasing, while transfer cohorts grew.
Trends in New Student Enrollment in Baccalaureate Programs

4. There is a large volume and variety of transfer activity throughout the system.
Transfer Volume in Academic Year *
8,981 transfer into CUNY
8,663 transfer into CUNY
Associate
3,572 transfer between CUNY AA programs
Baccalaureate
3,354 transfer between CUNY BA programs
12,156 students transferred from AA to BA
2,168 students transferred from BA to AA
340* transfer out of CUNY
220* transfer out of CUNY
*Approximate expected annual transfer out number based on average transfer out of fall freshmen cohorts (associates: ; baccalaureate: )

5. Most incoming baccalaureate transfer students come from 2-year colleges.
Origin of transfer to CUNY baccalaureate program, :
54%: CUNY associate/certificate program or other 2-year college
15%: CUNY baccalaureate program or other 4-year college
31%: other outside institutions
Source: IPEDS OM table

6. Most CUNY associate students want to earn a bachelor’s degree.
A survey of First-time Associate Degree seeking Freshmen showed that around 75% of respondents had an educational goal of a bachelor’s degree or higher.
In addition, 43.8% of respondents stated that they would like to earn their bachelor’s degree at a CUNY school. 2a

7. Fewer than 20% of CUNY associate students actually transfer to baccalaureate programs.
Of the Fall 2011 associate degree seeking cohort, 19% of students eventually transferred to a baccalaureate program.
In Fall 2015, 79% of the 2-year CUNY students who applied for transfer to a CUNY 4-year college were admitted to a CUNY 4-year college.
Of those students who were admitted to a CUNY 4-year college, only 69% actually enrolled in any 4-year college (66% at CUNY and 3 % at other 4-year colleges).
7% remained at the same 2-year school
22% enrolled in no college or had unknown enrollment

8. How do transfer students compare to native freshmen in terms of graduation rates?
Comparing all transfer students to FTF who entered a BA program in fall 2005:
transfer students are 6 percentage points more likely to graduate by the spring of 2009.
But not a valid comparison
Transfer students have an average of 50 credits on transfer
Comparing to FTF w/30-60 credits
Transfer students have an average of 50 credits
Comparing to FTF w/30-60 credits
Transfer students are nearly 25 percentage points less likely to graduate

9. Controlling for students’ background characteristics explains most, but not all of the gap between transfer and native freshman graduation rates.
Relative Probability of Graduation, Transfer Student vs. FTF, by Controls Added
Why are transfer students less likely to graduate than FTFs?
Come from more disadvantaged backgrounds and are less academically prepared for the demands of a bachelor’s level degree program.
We control for these factors in our regression models to see what graduation gap remains. We focus on:
Controls for demographic background
Controls for high school performance
Controls for early college performance & enrollment
These control variables substantially reduce — but do not completely eliminate — the gap.
Of the unadjusted 25 percentage point grad. gap
7.7 points can be explained by demographic characteristics
(race/ethnicity, gender, age, and immigration status)
6.9 percentage points are explained by academic preparation and performance in high school.
3.6 percentage points account for academic performance in the first two semesters in the baccalaureate program and for enrollment decisions such as full-time attendance.
But a gap of 6.4 percentage points remains

10. Transfer students earn a lower GPA in their first semester and first year of the baccalaureate program than native baccalaureate students, even when controlling for demographics and high school preparation.
*Source: OPR Research Brief “Do Transfer Students Performs as Well As First-Time Freshmen”. Regression model includes controls for demographics, high school performance, college enrollment patterns, cohort year and college.

11. Transfer students pass fewer credits in their first semester and first year than freshmen, even when controlling for demographics and high school performance. They also appear to decrease their course load in the second semester.
Regression-Adjusted Mean Credits Attempted and Passed, Freshmen Compared to Transfers*
*Source: OPR Research Brief “Do Transfer Students Performs as Well As First-Time Freshmen”. Regression model includes controls for demographics, high school performance, college enrollment patterns, cohort year and college.

12. Transfer students on average earn lower GPAs in their first semester in baccalaureate programs than they had earned in their associate programs, but not all transfer students’ GPAs decrease.
Mean Cumulative GPA in Associate Program Compared to Mean first-semester GPA in Bachelor’s Program*
Decrease in GPA:
% transfer students: 0.64
Mean decrease: 0.79
Increase in GPA:
% transfer students: 0.36
Mean increase: 0.43
*Students who started in a CUNY associate program in Fall 2010 and transferred within 4 years

13. Although overall rates of satisfaction are similar between transfers and “native” freshmen at CUNY, transfer students are less satisfied with academic services.
Satisfaction with Academic Support Services: senior colleges, Natives compared to transfers
Source: CUNY’s 2014 Student Experience Survey

14. Credit loss also hurts transfer students’ probability of graduation.
Monaghan & Attewell (2015) used data from a national longitudinal survey to investigate the process by which students transfer from a community college to a 4-year college. They found:
Students lose credits in the transfer process: 28% of transfers lose between 10% to 89% of their credits, and 14% of transfers lose over 90% of their credits.
Credit loss significantly hampers graduation chances; students who have less than half their credits transfer are less likely to graduate than students who have all or almost all of their credits transfer.
They estimate that if transfer students did not experience credit loss, BA attainment rates among community college transfer students would increase 9 percentage points, from 45% to 54%.
(Monaghan & Attewell, 2015)
Attewell, community college route to Bachelor’s degree
Credit is why transfer do worse than native
Transfers and natives have similar academic preparation/ progress, similar graduation rates
In fact, about 14% of transfer students in this study essentially began anew after transferring: Their new institution accepted fewer than 10% of their community college credits. At the other extreme, only 58% of community college transfers were able to bring over 90% or more of their college credits. The remaining 28% of transfers lost between 10% and 89% of their credits
Students who lose credits have significantly lowered chances of graduation. Table 7 reports that students who have all or almost all their credits transferred have an odds of graduation more than 2.5 times greater than students with less than half their credits transfer
The model suggests that if credit loss did not occur, BA attainment rates among community college transfer students would be 54% rather than 45%. One implication is that the BA attainment rate among community college transfers would be even higher than 4-year entrants if this credit loss did not occur.
While we know that transfer students are just as likely to complete a degree as native students, this research suggests that transfer students would do even better than native students if they did not lose any credits.

15. Qualitative research gives insight into transfer students’ unique characteristics and needs, both academic and outside the classroom.
In 2016, Christina Ciocca Eller conducted 200 interviews with students, faculty, and administrative staff at three CUNY four-year colleges.
She found:
Problems with credit evaluation
Major declaration challenges
Inconsistent or ineffective communication
Inconsistent academic support services
Limited availability of campus support
Challenging social and emotional context
She made six recommendations to colleges to increase transfer student success:
Get Students on Track Academically
Promote Sustainable Performance
Share Clear Information
Provide Flexible and Helpful Support
Create Opportunities for College Connection
Build on Students’ Sense of Commitment
Get Students On Track Academically: During the first few weeks of transfer students’ first semester, they must make important academic decisions that shape the remainder of their four-year experience. These decisions often have implications for both financial aid and future course-taking opportunities. Without sufficient guidance, information, and support to get on track academically, transfer students can miss critical deadlines and requirements, derailing their academic progress and jeopardizing the likelihood of degree completion.
Promote Sustainable Performance: Unlike freshmen, who typically take introductory classes populated mostly with other freshmen, transfer students often begin taking intermediate or advanced courses with challenging content and a fast pace alongside other students who have been on the campus for two or more years. Succeeding academically can be difficult in this context, especially if students lack sufficient academic preparation or understanding of senior college course expectations. College professors can increase sustainable performance by becoming aware of the large number of transfer students enrolled in their classes, understanding the challenges they face, and providing explicit explanation of classroom expectations and resources for support.
Share Clear Information: One of the most notable causes of transfer students’ uneven experiences is ineffective or inconsistent communication about important information such as course registration periods, financial aid deadlines, and requirements related to their majors. Ensuring that transfer students have sufficient access to accurate information and know how to respond to it is essential for their success.
Provide Flexible and Helpful Support: As with the majority of freshmen, transfer students often require support or guidance at some point during their first year of college—whether academic or personal. For support to be most useful to transfer students, it needs to be tailored to their particular circumstances and must include flexible scheduling for those who are juggling responsibilities in addition to school.
Create Opportunities for College Connection: Transfer students often feel like permanent newcomers or outsiders tasked with navigating the administrative, academic, and social infrastructures of their four-year colleges completely on their own. To help transfer students feel less isolated, it is beneficial to create more opportunities for them to engage with one another and the academic dimension of their college communities, especially during their first year at a four-year college.
Build on Sense of Commitment: Many transfer students arrive at four-year colleges with a deep commitment to attaining their bachelor’s degrees—often more so than first-time freshmen. This commitment is an invaluable resource for transfer students, and it can be leveraged to support degree completion.
Source: “Increasing Success for Two-to-Four-Year Transfer Students Within The City University of New York”

16. Future research at CUNY will build on both existing quantitative and qualitative research on transfer student pathways and experiences.
Financial aid relationship with retention
Transfer Opportunity Project (IES grant)
Community College Students Majoring in the Humanities: Transfer and Attainment of Bachelor’s Degrees (Mellon grant)

17. Appendix

18. ASAP students transferred to baccalaureate programs at higher rates than non-ASAP students and earned their bachelor’s degrees at higher rates.
Source: Six-Year Outcomes of ASAP Students: Transfer and Degree Attainment, Diana Strumbos and Zineta Kolenovic
Method: Propensity score matching for first two ASAP first-time freshmen cohorts (fall 2007 and fall 2009)
- Interestingly, the effect of ASAP on bachelor’s degree attainment is larger than the effect on transfer in terms of a percent change (49 percent vs. 19 percent).
- This suggests that ASAP not only helps students with the transfer process, but also better prepares them for success once they enter a baccalaureate program.
- The large size of the estimated ASAP effect on bachelor’s degree attainment is particularly notable given that the program does not continue to support students or provide services after they transfer.
Hypothesized mechanisms:
ASAP staff guide students through the transfer process itself, helping them decide where to apply, assisting with applications, and ensuring that they make a smooth transition to baccalaureate study. This support helps students successfully navigate the transfer process and prepares them for what comes next.
By strongly encouraging students to earn the associate degree before they transfer, and supporting them in doing so, ASAP advisors help ensure that students do not leave the community college until they have earned a credential. The sense of accomplishment and self-efficacy that comes with earning an associate degree may help students persevere through future challenges they may face in their bachelor’s degree programs