1. Immigration after Brexit: rebooting policy Jonathan Portes
King’s College London & UKandEU
May 2018
@jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk

2. Net migration to UK by citizenship2

3. Immigration: where are we now?
Free movement will continue in transition period
No White Paper or Immigration Bill until end-2018 *at least*. Government has kicked the can on all key issues:
Will migration/labour mobility be on the table in negotiations
European preference?
Sector-based schemes?
Regional differentiation?
Overall system – “liberal” vs restrictionist
Public debate in short-term likely to be dominated by Windrush, status for resident EU citizens, etc, not post-Brexit policy 3

4. Ending free movement: myths & downsides
MYTH: Most EU migrants are low-skilled. FACT: Most are medium-high or medium-low skilled, like Brits
MYTH: Ending FM means we can exclude low-skilled migrants & just get high-skilled ones. FACT: Migrants have to choose us. High-skill EU migration *already* falling.
MYTH: Ending FM is about border control. FACT: It’s about extending internal controls – “hostile environment” to EU citizens. 4

5. Time to reboot policy
Increase – real and perceived – degree of control of the UK government and Parliament over migration for work purposes from the EEA.
Maintain economic advantages of free movement;
Minimise additional administrative burdens on individuals, employers and government;
Allow UK government to offer meaningful commitment to principle of free movement – but not in its current form – so as to facilitate wider negotiations on the UK’s continued membership of the Single Market.
Not about reducing numbers substantially 5

6. Having our cake and eating it? Yes and no
FM is one of “four freedoms”: there will be no cherry-picking
Fundamental changes to FM not on EU agenda – though changes to PWD likely
But some changes feasible within current system
More importantly, post-Brexit UK will not be EU member: greatly increases possible flexibility (see Switzerland)
Would require fundamental reset of UK approach to negotiations 6

7. Unrealistic options Work permit conditional on job offer ?
Not “free movement” in a meaningful sense
Unlikely to be negotiable
Might make abuse/undercutting by agencies more likely
Free movement to seek work?
Feasible in principle under current rules
But difficult to enforce meaningfully
Not perceived as major change
Emergency brake at national level
If imposed on “objective criteria” never imposed
If politically driven never removed – becomes a quota
Poisoned by Cameron approach 7

8. What might work?
Time limited permission to seek/take up work. Several options here:
Declaration on entry that intention is to take up work with specific employer: issued with permission to take up work;
Declaration on entry that purpose of entry to seek work: issued time limited permission to take up work
New arrivals who wish to seek work required to register for NI number: issued time limited permission to take up work (version of worker registration scheme)
Greater use of “smart” NI system
Employers would be able to check eligibility on-line (as envisaged in Govt White Paper)
Would allow government to monitor trends/impacts at local level 8

9. Swiss system Not an emergency brake or quota
Allows preference for local residents when unemployment in sector/region is high relative to national average
UK version could require recruitment preference for JCP claimants (of unemployment and/or disability benefits)
Could also relate to local wage rates/trends, not just employment
Advantages/negotiability:
Proportional response to issues at local/sectoral level
Does not discriminate against existing residents who are EU nationals
Determined by objective criteria (could be implemented by MAC)
Reversible
Type of technocratic solution favoured by Commission
Modelled on existing system 9

10. Wider context Would require UK to reset negotiations “Offer” to EU is:
UK voted for Brexit & is leaving EU
Reflects fundamental incompatibility of UK with EU political structures
But want to preserve closest possible economic relationship with EU post-Brexit
This includes Single Market and Customs Union
We accept this means freedom of movement
Want to discuss what form of FM would be compatible with UK membership of SM/CU (but not EU political structures)
Longer term: evolution of eurozone governance may open up space for new, “outer ring”/”associate membership” status 10

11. Immigration after Brexit: rebooting policy Jonathan Portes
King’s College London & UKandEU
May 2018
@jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk