1. Forecast Verification time!
Perfect Forecast ?

2. Forecast Verification time!
Perfect Forecast 71
YES
0.67” 10

4. CLIMATOLOGY
TEMPS
Average: 79
Median
Range 81
Standard Dev. +/- 8
RAIN
Avg./Mean:
Range:
% time:
0.16”
0-1.13”
53%
What is CLIMATE ?? (vs. weather)

5. GFS MODEL RAINFALL 12z MON – 12z TUE
0.75”

6. NAM MODEL RAINFALL 12z MON – 12z TUE
1.20”
(0.10” – 4.0”)

7. NNM/ ARW MODELS RAINFALL 12z MON – 12z TUE
1.0” vs. 0.75”
(0.10” – 2.0”)

8. GFS MODEL
NAM MODEL
MON EVE
LIFTED INDEX
LI =
LIFTED INDEX = measure of how unstable
The atmosphere is between sfc and 500mb
Precipitable Water = If we “wrung” out all the moisture
in the atmosphere, how much precip would we get

9. Buoyancy =
Tendency for air to
Accelerate
Convection
Conduction

10. Lifted Index (LI)=-5
Li=?
Convection
500mb
-10C
-5C

11. Lifted Index (LI)=0
Li=?
Convection
500mb
-5C
-5C

12. Lifted Index (LI)=+5
Li=?
Convection
500mb
-0C
-5C

13. SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ?

14. Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector
Air Masses …. Maritime Polar, Maritime Tropical
Continental Polar, Continental Tropical

15. De donde son ustedes?
(Where are you from)
Most interesting weather
at your hometown?

16. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

17. If it’s 11 UTC / 11 zulu / 11 Z time …..-4
DST

18. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

19. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

20. GFS MODEL - THIS EVENINGX

21. GFS MODEL - THIS EVENING
Humidity (700mb) - Accumulated Rain

22. GFS MODEL - TOMORROW EVENING

23. GFS MODEL - THURS EVENINGX

24. GFS MODEL - FRIDAY! X

25. Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER
WX CAMP - Forecasting
Location – STATE COLLEGE
TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER

26. Today’s Forecast

27. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

31. Surface Observations YYZ = Station 57 = 50 = 155 = Temp Dewpoint
SL Pressure =
Sky cover
Station =
Temp =
Dewpoint =
Pressure =
PIT 66 65
1013.8mb =
SSW 5 kts
=Lt. Rain