1. The 2019 European Elections and the rise of the right
Natalie Mast
N. Mast Consulting

2. Outline Party Groups in the European Parliament
How the EP elections work
The 2019 election results
The right in the EP
The European Peoples’ Party Party Group and the pull of the right
The issue of Victor Orbán’s Fidesz
Institutional power politics at play – the case of “Spitzenkandidaten”

3. EP Party Groups
Within the European Parliament, members do not sit in national groupings, but within party groups – organisations formed by relatively like-minded national political parties and Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). In the current EP (9th), there are 7 party groups, which is one less than in the last Parliament.
Some party groups exist only within the EP, but others belong to an overarching political party. These transnational parties are made up of political parties from EU member states, but membership can extend beyond the EU.
EP party groups are roughly organised within the chamber according to their position on the political spectrum. To gain party group status, a group must consist of at least 25 MEPs from a quarter of the member states (7).
Not all of the party groups in the EP are stable. Groups are formed, dissolved, reformed and renamed quite often.

4. How EP elections work
European Parliament elections are held every five years with the most recent held between 23 and 26 May 2019.
Direct election to the EP began in However, the method of election has never been uniform. There are still significant differences at play, including:
While all member states now use proportional representation (PR), of the 28 member states, 15 apply thresholds, ranging from 1.8% to 5%.
Five member states divide their electorate into a number of regional constituencies. All other member states employ a single constituency for their EP elections.
A variety of PR forms are used, ranging from seven countries using a closed list system (vote for the party, not the candidate); two countries (and Northern Ireland), utilising the Single Transferable Vote (referencing candidates regardless of their parties); and, the remaining countries utilising an open list (preferencing candidates within a party).
The voting age in all member states is 18, except for Austria (16) and Greece (17).
The minimum age to stand for election ranges from

5. How EP elections work (cont.)
There are currently 751 seats in the EP. Seats are distributed among member states based on population size, with an imposed minimum of 6 seats and a maximum 96 seats.
For many years EP elections have been considered second order elections, where voters used the election as an opportunity to voice their level of approval for their national government.
This focus on national rather than European issues is exacerbated by the fact that candidates run on tickets organised by their national party, rather than as a member of a European party. For example, UK voters vote for a member of the UK Labour Party rather than a member of the S&D party group.

6. Data Source: https://election-results.eu/tools/download-datasheets/

7. Party Group Changes
Data Source:

8. The EP when/if Brexit occurs
UK: S&D 10
ALDE 17
Greens EFA 11
ECR 4
GUE NGL 1
NA 30
Data Source: and

9. Why not just one mega right-wing party?
The right in the EP (those to the right of the centrist Renew Europe) represent a very broad range of views, including on the existence and ongoing role of the EU itself.
Three broad views on Europe:
Support for the European Union
Curtail the role of the EU in the every day lives of citizens
Withdraw from the EU entirely
Views on immigration and minority rights differ significantly
There are also historical geo-political factors at play
So, what exactly do the European party groups of the right stand for?
Working from the far-right to centre:

10. Identity and Democracy (right wing to far right)
Data Source:

11. Non-aligned

12. European Conservatives and Reformists Group (centre-right to right-wing)
Data Source:

13. EPP Group: Will it swing to the centre or the right?
The EPP Group is a centre-right pro-EU group that has been the largest EP party group since 1999.
The group has its basis in the Christian democratic parties of Western Europe.
In the previous parliament the EPP Group had 216 members representing all 28 EU member states. In the new parliament the group has 182 members from 26 member states.

14. European Peoples’ Party Group
Data Source:

15. Fidesz and the issue of Viktor Orbán
The European People’s Party is a multinational centre-right pro-EU political party made up of 80 parties and partners from 42 countries.
In late February 2019, 13 European member parties wrote to the President of the EPP, Joseph Daul, requesting that Fidesz, the party led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, be expelled from the EPP.
On March 20, the political assembly of EPP, voted by a margin of 190 to 3 to suspend Fidesz.
The suspension will continue until an evaluation committee (3 wise men) report determines if Fidesz is conforming to EPP’s values.
While Fidesz has been suspended from the EPP, that suspension has not extended to the EPP Party Group (EPP Group) operating within the European Parliament.

16. What’s the issue with Orbán?
“The old differences in the European Union have lost their significance. The decisive difference today is no longer whether we are old or new members, southerners or northerners or westerners or easterners. Instead there is a new fault line. This runs between the countries of immigration and the non–countries of immigration.” 
Oct 2017 interview with the German newspaper Passauer Neue Presse
"We don't see these people as Muslim refugees. We see them as Muslim invaders."
"We believe that a large number of Muslims inevitably leads to parallel societies, because Christian and Muslim society will never unite." Multiculturalism…is only an illusion.”
interview with German daily Bild newspaper Jan 2018.
“We know that, according to their accounts, according to the accounts of the officers of the Soros mercenary army, here [in Hungary] there are around 2,000 people working, paid people, so that they can overturn the government in the course of the current electoral campaign and bring to power a new, pro-immigration government that is also acceptable to György Soros.” 
March 30, 2018, during interview
on state-run Kossuth Radio
"Of course it’s not accepted, but the factual point is that all the terrorists are basically migrants.” Interview with Politico, 2015
"If you take masses of non-registered immigrants from the Middle East into your country, you are importing terrorism, crime, anti-Semitism, and homophobia.” interview with German daily Bild newspaper Jan 2018.
“The Hungarian nation is not a mere agglomeration of individuals, but a community, which must be organized, strengthened and, in fact, built. In this sense, therefore, the new state that we are building in Hungary is an illiberal state, not a liberal state. It does not deny the fundamental values of liberalism, such as freedom, and I could bring up a few more, but does not make this ideology the central element of state organization ” July Speech

17. The issue of the “Spitzenkandidaten” and EP over-reach
The other issue at play is the selection of the President of the European Commission.
In 2014 The EP went to the election with “Spitzenkandidaten” –lead candidates nominated by EP party groups who act as the face of the campaign.
This action was seen as a power grab by the EP, suggesting to the Council that their candidate was the choice of the people.
In 2019 the EPP candidate was Manfred Weber.
Weber played a key role in the suspension of Fidesz.
At the time of the suspension, Orbán stated that Fidesz would continue to support Weber’s candidature.
In early May that support was withdrawn. Orbán claimed:
"Weber would have been good for us as president of the commission.. but he made the statement that not only does he not need the Hungarian votes but he doesn't even want the Hungarian votes to become commission president…That is such an offense to Hungary and the Hungarian voters.” DW website

18. Where does the EPP Group go from here?
The EPP “3 Wise Men” report is still to be handed down.
In the tent or out? Are the benefits Fidesz bring to the EPP Group enough to allow them to remain?
Without the ability to form a grand coalition with S&D, the EPP Group now needs to build a new coalition, either working with party groups to the left (Renew Europe and S&D) or looking to the right.
Orbán wants the EPP and the EPP Group to move to the right:
This is a watershed moment for the EPP Group as it determines where it sits within the political spectrum, what its values are, and where it looks for support when forming coalitions.
“Let’s not tie ourselves to the left. Let’s find another path: cooperation with Europe’s political right.”   
Orbán interview with La Stampa, May 2019.

19. Questions?