1. 2019 Natural Gas Outlook Oregon Public Utilities Commission
July 16, 2019

2. Procurement Plan Mix
Hedge 40%
Cash 60% 2

3. Cash vs. Forwards Sumas $160 3
Year
*Avg. Cash Price
*Max Cash
2018
$ 3.54
$ 69.60
2019
$ 7.54 $
Cash vs. Forwards Sumas
$160
$80.00
$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00 $-
Winter '18 - '19
Winter '19 - '20
Winter '20 - '21
Winter '21 - '22
Cash 3
*Average and Max prices through 7/8/2019

4. AECO Forwards – 3 prompt Winter strips
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50 $-
$ per Dth

6. US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
140
130
120
110
100 90 80 70 60
BCF / DAY 50
Forecast 40
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Historical Production
Consultant 1
Consultant 2
EIA - AEO '19

7. US Natural Gas Storage Presenter 2019-07-09 20:28:50
Weekly injections topped 100 Bcf in7 of the last 9 weeks, which only normally would occur 2 times in a normal refill year
US Natural Gas Storage

8. Enbridge Capacity Forecast for T-South through summer 2019
MMcfd
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
Integrity Inspections
800
Hydro Tests
700
600
500
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
September

9. Oregon Storage – Jackson Prairie
Owner
Capacity (Dth)
Current (Dth)*
WACOG
OR - Leased
95,565
91,167
$1.43
OR - Owned
822,917
795,159
$1.69
Total
918,482
886,326
$1.66
*Volumes are as of 7/8/2019

10. OR PGA Forecast* PRELIMINARY
Commodity
Demand
Current: $
Current: $
Projected: $
Projected: $
Amortization
Total Cost Increase
Current:
($7.9 million)
Projected Overall Cost Increase:
5-7%
Projected:
($0.9 million)
Based on Prices and Deferral Balances as of
*Excludes revenue conversion factor 10