1. “King Tide” on Sept. 29, 2015
Nag Marsh, Prudence Island, RI
(Photo credit: Daisy Durant)
“Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases.”
Staudt et al The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems.
Front Ecol Environ 11(9):

2. Applying CCVATCH in RI – Project Planning Workshop
Objectives:
Provide an introduction to the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats
Describe the NERRS Science Collaborative science transfer project (regional context)
Plan for the application of CCVATCH in Rhode Island

3. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for coastal habitats
An Introduction

4. National Estuarine Research Reserves
The National Estuarine Research Reserve System uses its living laboratories to find solutions to
crucial issues facing America’s coasts, including climate change and resilience.

5. National Estuarine Research Reserves
Brackish Stream
Eelgrass Meadow
Flatwoods
Salt Marsh
Dune
Pitcher Plant Bog
Salt Marsh
Mangrove
Forested Wetlands
Freshwater Stream

6. CCVATCH Concept
Climate Effects
Adaptive Capacity
Stressors
HABITAT

7. CCVATCH Description CCVATCH is a spreadsheet based decision support
tool which allows users to
assess the potential for
climate effects to directly
affect habitats and interact with
habitat stressors and adaptive capacity to affect the
habitat’s function and ability to persist.
Exposure
The change in climate the habitat is likely to experience
Sensitivity
How the habitat is likely to be affected by climate exposure.
Potential Impact
Adaptive Capacity
The potential to ameliorate the effects of exposure or sensitivity
Vulnerability
The degree to which the habitat is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change.

8. Exposure
Anticipated change in climate attributes that will potentially influence the habitat
CO2
Temperature
Precipitation change
Sea level change
Extreme climate events

9. Non-Climate Stressors
Site conditions/factors that have been shown to impact the function or integrity of ecological habitats
CO2
Temperature
Precipitation change
Sea level change
Extreme climate events
Invasive/nuisance Species
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants

10. Adaptive Capacity
Inherent traits or external factors that allows a habitat to adjust to a changing climate
CO2
Temperature
Precipitation change
Sea level change
Extreme climate events
Invasive/nuisance Species
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants
Degree of fragmentation
Barriers to migration
Recovery / regeneration ability
Diversity of functional groups
Management actions possible
Human / institutional response

11. CCVATCH Components Scoring Spreadsheet
Numerical scores for sensitivity are entered for each climate X stressor for each habitat
A total sensitivity-exposure score is calculated for each habitat
Adaptive capacity scores are entered for each habitat
Certainty scores are assigned for each score entered
A matrix combines the sensitivity and adaptive capacity scores to create the overall vulnerability score

12. Certainty
Very High: Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus, information for local habitats 4
High: Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus, general information can be applied to local habitats 3
Medium: Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought, score based mostly on expert opinion 2
Low: Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts, score based on anecdotal observations 1
No direct or anecdotal evidence is available to support the score, topic needs further investigation

13. CCVATCH Components Background on impacts of stressors on habitats
Guidance Document
Background on impacts of stressors on habitats
Review of research on each climate X stressor interaction
Assessment questions
Scoring examples
List of literature, web, other resources
Example facilitation plan

14. CCVATCH Applications
Prioritize restoration & resiliency planning efforts and acquisition areas
Education and outreach to decision makers
Guide policy and funding decisions
Determine main sources of vulnerability
Compare vulnerability across geographic locations
Identify research and monitoring needs
Identify future timing of significant management decisions

15. Implementing CCVATCH in RI
NBNERR Management Plan Revision
Statewide Salt Marsh Habitat
NERRS Sentinel Site Monitoring
Salt Marsh Assessment (RISMA)
Spring 2014 Salt Marsh Symposium
2015 Statewide Salt Marsh Map
RI Coastal Wetlands Restoration Strategy 2015

16. Salt Marsh Habitat

17. Salt Marsh Habitat
Quonochontaug

18. Salt Marsh Habitat
Rocky Hill

19. Salt Marsh Habitat
Grotto Brook

20. Salt Marsh Habitat
Coggeshall

21. Salt Marsh Habitat
Blue Bill Cove

22. Exposure-Sensitivity
Sensitivity-Exposure 
Current Condition 
CO2 
Temperature 
Precipitation
Sea Level 
Extreme Climate Events
Direct Effects
Invasive / Nuisance Species
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants

23. Exposure-Sensitivity
Sensitivity-Exposure 
Current Condition 
CO2 
Temperature 
Precipitation
Sea Level 
Extreme Climate Events
Direct Effects
Invasive / Nuisance Species   
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants

24. Exposure-Sensitivity
Sensitivity-Exposure 
Current Condition 
CO2 
Temperature 
Precipitation
Sea Level 
Extreme Climate Events
Direct Effects
Invasive / Nuisance Species   
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants

25. Exposure-Sensitivity
Sensitivity-Exposure 
Current Condition 
CO2 
Temperature 
Precipitation
Sea Level 
Extreme Climate Events
Direct Effects
Invasive / Nuisance Species   
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

26. Adaptive Capacity ? Adaptive Capacity:
Degree of Fragmentation 
Barriers to Migration
Recovery / Regeneration Following Disturbance Y
Diversity of Functional Groups 
Management Actions 8
Human/Institutional Response ù
Adaptive Capacity:
Conditions present in a habitat (or likely to be in future) that ameliorate the sensitivity or exposure of the habitat or increase its resiliency ?

27. Resources Models Tools Expert Elicitation Site Visits
Literature Review

28. Facilitated Meetings for Scoring
Environmental Contaminants
Current Condition
CO2:
Temperature:
Precipitation:
Sea Level:
Extreme Climate:

29. Facilitated Meetings for Scoring
Environmental Contaminants
Current Condition
CO2:
Temperature:
Presumed tolerance to historic and persistent levels of exposure however “cost” may be reduced ability to tolerate climatic stress
Increased plant productivity may positively influence accretion rates
Increased contaminant uptake
Enhanced contaminant toxicity
Increase in pesticide exposure
Precipitation:
Sea Level:
Extreme Climate:
Short term seasonal drought concentrates contaminant levels beyond tolerance levels
Altered land use patterns may enhance exposure
Increased sensitivity to contaminants at elevated salinity levels
Greater risk of high levels of contaminant exposure due to runoff, coastal flooding

30. Certainty
Very High: Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus, information for local habitats 4
High: Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus, general information can be applied to local habitats 3
Medium: Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought, score based mostly on expert opinion 2
Low: Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts, score based on anecdotal observations 1
No direct or anecdotal evidence is available to support the score, topic needs further investigation

31. Overall Vulnerability
High
Very Low Vulnerability
Low Vulnerability
Moderate Vulnerability
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Low Vulnerability
Moderate Vulnerability
High Vulnerability
Moderate Vulnerability
High Vulnerability
Very High Vulnerability
Low
High
SENSITIVITY-EXPOSURE

32. General Process
Define Goals and Specific Questions
Assemble Team and Hold Pre-meeting to Assign Research, ID Data Needs
Compile and Review Resources, Research, Information Sources
Hold Facilitated Meetings for Scoring
Review Score Results to Identify Management Actions

33. Acknowledgements
Thanks to the following individuals who were instrumental in the early planning and development [Eric Brunden, Nina Garfield, Patty Glick, and Patty Delgado] and to members of the scientific community who took time to review and provide suggestions on this guidance document [Norm Christensen, Scott Neubauer, R.E. Turner, and Mike Unger].
The development of this tool was made possible, in part, through a pilot project funded by a NERRS Science Collaborative Grant entitled Improving management of coastal habitats: Testing a tool to assess the vulnerability of coastal habitats to climate change impacts.

34. NSC Science Transfer Grant
Implementing CCVATCH in the Northeast

35. General Process Regional Regional Regional Regional
Define Goals and Specific Questions
Assemble Team and Hold Pre-meeting to Assign Research, ID Data Needs
Compile and Review Resources, Research, Information Sources
Hold Facilitated Meetings for Scoring
Review Score Results to Identify Management Actions
Regional
Regional
Regional
Regional
Share Resources, Outreach Product Development

36. Regional Process 1 2 3
Assemble Team and Hold Pre-meeting to Assign Research, ID Data Needs
1. Reserves share task of identifying information sources/data needs and compile draft NE resource document
2. Reserves work with local partners to apply CCVATCH at their sites; new information sources/data are added to draft NE resource document
Compile and Review Resources, Research, Information Sources
3. NE resource document finalized and distributed; represents current ‘state of knowledge’ regarding climate change impacts on assessed habitats in the NE

37. Hold Facilitated Meetings for Scoring
Regional Process
Hold Facilitated Meetings for Scoring
CSC Planning and Facilitating Collaborative Meetings Training
Reserve staff participates in facilitated meeting at Narragansett Bay
Trained staff travel to support CCVATCH implementation at NE Reserves
NE Reserve staff assist partners with CCVATCH implementation to address other goals/questions

38. Share Resources, Outreach Product Development
Regional Process
Share Resources, Outreach Product Development
Finalized Northeast regional resource document is posted to to provide general ‘state of knowledge’ and support CCVATCH applications by other agencies
Relative vulnerabilities of assessed habitats at individual Reserves are used for decision support (e.g. restoration, acquisition, etc.); case studies are conveyed through a variety of formats to other Reserves and potential user groups
Relative vulnerability scores across multiple habitats are translated into fact sheets or technical reports to communicate regional climate change impacts to coastal decision makers
Identified research needs are available and posted to serve as a resource to inform build-out of NERRS initiatives (e.g. Sentinel Site program) and are distributed to universities, funding agencies as appropriate

39. Acknowledgement
This work is sponsored by the National Estuarine Research Reserve System Science Collaborative, which supports collaborative research that addresses coastal management problems important to the reserves. The Science Collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and managed by the University of Michigan Water Center.

40. Questions? Robin Weber, Stewardship Coordinator
Narragansett Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve

41. RI Project Logistics Frequency/duration of meetings Team structure
One/month, as needed
Half day, full day
Team structure
Team lead(s), notetakers
Limited (4-6/day), unlimited (all available)
Expert elicitation process
Team participation
Personal interview, on-line survey
Data collection & resource review
Team member assignment by stressor, habitat
Resource document build-out & sharing
Format: full abstracts, brief summaries by reference, overview of all available references