1. Forecast Verification time!
Mr. Perfect Forecast 77
YES
0.03” 9

4. CLIMATOLOGY
TEMPS
Average: 79
Median
Range 81
Standard Dev. +/- 8
RAIN
Avg./Mean:
Range:
% time:
0.16”
0-1.13”
53%
What is CLIMATE ?? (vs. weather)

5. Lifted Index (LI)=-5
500mb
-10C
-5C
Convection
Buoyancy =
Tendency for air
to accelerate
Positive
Negative
Conduction

6. Lifted Index (LI)=+5
500mb
-0C
-5C
Negative
Buoyancy

7. Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector
Air Masses …. Maritime Polar, Maritime Tropical
Continental Polar, Continental Tropical

8. Air Masses ….
Large volume of air with similar T and H characteristics
Maritime Tropical
Continental Tropical …. Arizona …. 105 … 35 |
Maritime Polar …. Coastal Washington … 68 … 58 |
Continental Polar …. Central Canada … 77 … 48 | … -10
Location Summer Winter
….. Florida … |

9. De donde son ustedes?
(Where are you from)
Most interesting weather
at your hometown?

10. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

11. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

12. GFS Forecast – Later today
Surface Pressure H

13. B A X GFS MODEL - THIS EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb)
Shortwave/ Vorticity Max / Jet stream Dist.

14. NAM MODEL
GFS MODEL LI
WED EVE
LIFTED INDEX
LIFTED INDEX = measure of how unstable
The atmosphere is between sfc and 500mb

15. NAM MODEL
GFS MODEL
WED EVE
Precipitable Water = If we “wrung” out all the moisture
in the atmosphere, how much precipitation would we get?

16. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

17. SPC Forecast – Tomorrow (Thursday)

18. NAM Forecast – Surface Pressure
Thursday X L

19. L X Say it Ain’t “Snow” SEVERE In PA Baby ?!?
GFS MODEL - THURS EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb) L X
Say it Ain’t
“Snow”
SEVERE In PA
Baby ?!?

20. Upper OH Valley/Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s … ahead of the
vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis.
Even with this favorable low-level moisture, poor lapse rates and
stunted daytime heating is expected to limit instability, with MLCAPE
likely remaining below 1000 J/kg.
Modest low to mid-level flow will extend across the region,
resulting in deep layer shear supportive of a few
stronger storms amidst a predominantly multicell storm mode.
Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts.
NAM MODEL
GFS MODEL LI
LIFTED INDEX
THURS EVE

21. Upper OH Valley/Northern Mid-Atlantic...
Dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s … ahead of the
vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis.
Even with this favorable low-level moisture, poor lapse rates and
stunted daytime heating is expected to limit instability, with MLCAPE
likely remaining below 1000 J/kg.
Modest low to mid-level flow will extend across the region,
resulting in deep layer shear supportive of a few
stronger storms amidst a predominantly multicell storm mode.
Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts.

22. Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER
WX CAMP - Forecasting
Location – STATE COLLEGE
TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER

23. Perfect Forecast

24. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

28. Surface Observations YYZ = Station 57 = 50 = 155 = Temp Dewpoint
SL Pressure =
Sky cover
Station =
Temp =
Dewpoint =
Pressure =
PIT 66 65
1013.8mb =
SSW 5 kts
=Lt. Rain