1. “King Tide” on Sept. 29, 2015
Nag Marsh, Prudence Island, RI
(Photo credit: Daisy Durant)
“Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases.”
Staudt et al The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems.
Front Ecol Environ 11(9):

2. Applying CCVATCH in MA – Cold Water Fisheries
Objectives:
Provide an introduction to the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats
Discuss potential climate change impacts on cold water fisheries (directly and through alterations in non-climate stressor impacts)
Apply CCVATCH to assess relative vulnerability at each of two sites

3. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for coastal habitats
An Introduction

4. CCVATCH Description CCVATCH is a spreadsheet based decision support
tool which allows users to
assess the potential for
climate effects to directly
affect habitats and interact with
habitat stressors and adaptive capacity to affect the
habitat’s function and ability to persist.
Exposure
The change in climate the habitat is likely to experience
Sensitivity
How the habitat is likely to be affected by climate exposure.
Potential Impact
Adaptive Capacity
The potential to ameliorate the effects of exposure or sensitivity
Vulnerability
The degree to which the habitat is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change.

5. Exposure
Anticipated change in climate attributes that will potentially influence the habitat
CO2
Temperature
Precipitation change
Sea level change
Extreme climate events

6. Non-Climate Stressors
Site conditions/factors that have been shown to impact the function or integrity of ecological habitats
CO2
Temperature
Precipitation change
Sea level change
Extreme climate events
Invasive/nuisance Species
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants

7. Adaptive Capacity
Inherent traits or external factors that allows a habitat to adjust to a changing climate
CO2
Temperature
Precipitation change
Sea level change
Extreme climate events
Invasive/nuisance Species
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Environmental Contaminants
Degree of fragmentation
Barriers to migration
Recovery / regeneration ability
Diversity of functional groups
Management actions possible
Human / institutional response

8. CCVATCH Components Scoring Spreadsheet
Numerical scores for sensitivity are entered for each climate X stressor for each habitat
A total sensitivity-exposure score is calculated for each habitat
Adaptive capacity scores are entered for each habitat
Certainty scores are assigned for each score entered
A matrix combines the sensitivity and adaptive capacity scores to create the overall vulnerability score

9. Certainty
Very High: Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus, information for local habitats 4
High: Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus, general information can be applied to local habitats 3
Medium: Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought, score based mostly on expert opinion 2
Low: Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts, score based on anecdotal observations 1
No direct or anecdotal evidence is available to support the score, topic needs further investigation

10. CCVATCH Components Background on impacts of stressors on habitats
Guidance Document
Background on impacts of stressors on habitats
Review of research on each climate X stressor interaction
Assessment questions
Scoring examples
List of literature, web, other resources
Example facilitation plan

11. Resources Models Tools Expert Elicitation Site Visits
Literature Review

12. CCVATCH Applications
Prioritize restoration & resiliency planning efforts and acquisition areas
Education and outreach to decision makers
Guide policy and funding decisions
Determine main sources of vulnerability
Compare vulnerability across geographic locations
Identify research and monitoring needs
Identify future timing of significant management decisions

13. Overall Vulnerability
High
Very Low Vulnerability
Low Vulnerability
Moderate Vulnerability
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Low Vulnerability
Moderate Vulnerability
High Vulnerability
Moderate Vulnerability
High Vulnerability
Very High Vulnerability
Low
High
SENSITIVITY-EXPOSURE

14. Acknowledgements
Thanks to the following individuals who were instrumental in the early planning and development [Eric Brunden, Nina Garfield, Patty Glick, and Patty Delgado] and to members of the scientific community who took time to review and provide suggestions on this guidance document [Norm Christensen, Scott Neubauer, R.E. Turner, and Mike Unger].
The development of this tool was made possible, in part, through a pilot project funded by a NERRS Science Collaborative Grant entitled Improving management of coastal habitats: Testing a tool to assess the vulnerability of coastal habitats to climate change impacts.

15. Questions? Robin Weber, Stewardship Coordinator
Narragansett Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve