1. Probability Carnival
NEW TEAMS!!!

2. Kathy Allen kallen1@usi.edu
Hello!
Kathy Allen
Introduce self; entry doc

3. New Teams Icebreaker: 3 minutes.
Send an introducing yourselves and asking a QR question.

4. Team goal – WIN!!!

5. Let’s Play Dice! One player rolls One player records
One player keeps a tally
Dice handout

6. Probability Number of desired results Total number of outcomes
All probabilities must be between 0 – 1.
All probabilities add to equal 1.
Checkout 2-dice image, probability of rolling 7

7. Probability
Experimental
Theoretical

8. Combined Probability For two independent events A, B:
Probability of events A AND B
=P(A) * P(B)
AND means MULTIPLY

9. What’s the probability of rolling a sum of two, then a sum of three?
P(Sum of two) AND P(Sum of three) ∗
= = =0.15%

10. Choose a game, Fix your probabilities
Reminder: Money available only in $5 and $10 denominations
15:00 SHARP, use eggtimer

11. Expected Value = (probability of event 1)*(value of event 1) +
An average you can expect to win/lose as you play a game repetitively
Checkout 2-dice image, probability of rolling 7

12. Expected Value Example
You’re playing roulette at a casino. You bet $5 on red. If you win, you win $10 (net profit of $5). If you lose, you’re out $5.
What’s the expected outcome?
EV=(Probability of Win)*(profit) + (Probability of Loss)*($ lost)
EV = ∗ $ ∗ −$5
EV = -$0.26

13. How do we make sure we win?
Expected Value = (prob.1)*(value1) + (prob.2)*(value2) + ………….

14. Design a profitable game Make a poster advertising your game
Reminder: Money available only in $5 and $10 denominations
Design a profitable game Make a poster advertising your game
15:00 SHARP, use eggtimer

15. Evaluate Other’s Games One player stays to explain game Others compute EV
Whose game offers the lowest expected value?
Whose game offers the highest expected value?
Which games will you play?

16. PLAY BALL!!- 25 min Reminders: You may not play your own game
You must play every game once
You must spend all player money
15:00 SHARP, use eggtimer

17. Tally Results 1. Carnie money earned (grey)
2. Carnie prize money left (green)
3. Player 1 prize money
4. Player 2 prize money
5. Player 3 prize money
Subtotal: add up lines 1-5
Penalty: subtract 2x leftover player grey money
Subtract starting team amount:
$350 carnie prize money, $140 per player
Net earning
ALSO SHARE EV of games

18. What Happened? Did play happen the way you expected?
What did we learn?
What are the advantages and disadvantages
of learning this topic in this manner?
15:00 SHARP, use eggtimer

19. Let’s review some concepts
Probability
Number of desired results Total number of outcomes
Expected Value
= (prob.1)*(value1) + (prob.2)*(value2) + (prob3)*(event3)+ ………….

20. Thanks! Slides available in Symbaloo Any questions? You can find me at