1. On Supplementary Readings

2. Shifter, “Tempering Expectations”
On evaluation of democratic change:
Compared to when?
What countries/regions?
Along what dimensions?
Mixed record (as of 2002):
Progress in Mexico and Peru
Turmoil in Andes
Challenges to “representative democracy”

3. Carey, “Presidentialism and Representative Institutions”
Ominous trends:
Elected presidents misbehaving
Removal of presidents (quasi-impeachment)
Selecting presidents
Removing presidents
Legislative capacity
Bias: strengthen legislatures!
Allow re-election
Need for transparency

4. Diamint, “The Military”
Outlook
Military still preeminent
Command economic resources
And police militarized
National and international roles
Citizens as prime enemies
Loyalty to institution
Civilian missions as threat to democracy
South America
Central America
Logic: entrepreneurial and institutional

5. Coppedge, “Venezuela…”
Framework:
Popular vs. liberal democracy
Rise of “delegative democracy”
Popular support
Wide and strong
Polarization
Crisis of democracy
Role of the “partyarchy” (partidocracia)
Emergence of a political vacuum
Weak institutions

6. Cepeda Ulloa, “Colombia…”
Threats to governability
Guerrillas and organized crime
“Technocratic dogmatism”
Corruption and disorder
Constitution of 1991
Dilution of institutions
Fragmentation of political forces
Tensions and new crises
Samper and the Cali cartel
Clientelism in executive-legislative relations
Decentralization
A strategy for recovery
Plan Colombia
IMF
FARC
Government’s “ordinary” agenda

7. Degregori, “Peru: The Vanishing…”
Phase 1: Outsider within a Democratic Framework ( )
June 1990: Fujimori elected president
Implosion of political parties
Focus on hyperinflation and terrorism
April 1992: autogolpe
September 1992: capture of Abimael Guzmán
Phase 2: Authoritarianism Triumphant ( )
October 1993: ratification of new constitution
April 1995: Fujimori re-elected
Inattention to institutionalization (e.g., PRI)
Weaknesses: nontransferable charisma, militarization of politics, lack of transparency

8. Phase 3: Permanent Reelection (1996-2000)
--Exposure of Vladimir Montesinos
--December 1996: Seizure of Japanese ambassador’s residence
--Surge of popular dissidence
--Intimidation of media
--Appearance of new players: OAS mission and Alejandro Toledo
--Resistance and eventual collapse
And Now?

9. Lamounier, “Brazil: The Cardoso Administration”
Judgment: perhaps one of the most effective in Brazilian history, but unclear if it will leave “irreversible improvements”
Political structure and party system
Consensus institutions (“consociationalism”)
Presidential authority
Plebiscitarian pseudo-solution

10. Agüero, “Chile: Unfinished Transition…”
Uneven progress in 1990s:
--Steady progress on economy
--Occasional achievements in governance and public policy
--Lag in “political-institutional” realm— inability to bring transition to an end
Argument: authoritarian legacy and manner of transition have had greater effects on Chile than in other countries of the region.

11. Ending the Transition? Competing Concepts
Constitutional reform
Resolution of human rights problems
Reconciliation: shared interpretation of 1973 coup
October 1998: arrest of Pinochet in London
Decline in Concertación vote (presidential elections): %
[first round]
[second round]

12. Dresser, “Mexico: From PRI Dominance…”
Framework:
“Voted” transition
Dispersions of power
Uncertainty: institutionalization
Executive-legislative relations
Potential parliamentary logic
Red-green circles and plebiscitarian appeals
Political power
Weakened parties
Unrule of law