1. Forecast Verification time!
Senor Perfect Forecast 74 81
5.5 ….

3. DAY 2
DAY 2

4. NAM precip during Tuesday (8 am – 8 pm)
E-Wall
(Precip/
Temp/
Cloud)

5. Weather Prediction Models
Dynamical / Physical
Statistical
Conceptual

6. Computer Weather Model
Physical Models
Equations ATTEMPT TO
describe how
atmosphere works
Equations describe how
atmosphere behaves
(i.e. how it works)

7. Statistical Weather Models
MOS

8. (construct of the mind)
Conceptual Models
(construct of the mind)

13. Cyclogenesis – How storms form

14. Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

15. L
Sfc wx this morning H

16. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map EWALL - Soundings

17. 500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS)
This Afternoon L L H H

18. THR 0z = ?
8 p.m. Wed
NAM MODEL
LIFTED INDEX
LIFTED INDEX = measure of how unstable
atmosphere is between sfc and 500mb

19. ...Pennsylvania into New York...
A belt of modest cyclonic flow aloft will reside over a moderately
unstable warm sector ( J/kg MLCAPE).
A few storms may develop along the cold front or lake breeze
boundaries across the southern G. Lakes and spread southeast to PA.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak along with modest kt vertical
shear. A few storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and
marginal hail from afternoon to early evening.
Soundings – vertical plots of T, w, q – great way to
assess convective instability (at a single location)

20. 500 MB MODEL FORECAST (UPPER LEVELS)
This Afternoon
Wind flow nearly parallel to isobars in upper levels = minimal friction

21. Ms. Sally Climo 73 81 5 PA

22. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – NHC - SPC - Radar - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map EWALL - Soundings

24. RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation
- Varies between?
- If in a cloud ….. RH = ?
Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v)
T = 85
D = 65
RH = 51%
How can we make a cloud?
RH Calculator