1. Free Will The false presupposition and a testable model
Dr Mark Hadley 1

2. A deterministic model of the free will phenomenon Journal of Consciousness Exploration and Research (1)
The paper uniquely shows:
There is no evidence for indeterminism in human decision making.
There is no conceivable test for indeterminism.
The false presupposition in the free will debate is the connection with indeterminism
I pose the “alien test”
A test for free will is proposed
A challenge model of free will is constructed.
The model makes predictions and is testable.
The model explains false attributions of free will
Methods of judging models are proposed

3. Free Will – the phenomenon
We believe that our decisions are not predetermined
Universal and cross cultural
That’s a fact
We can characterise the phenomenon and model it.
We can test the model
And make new predictions
more later

4. Free will – the abstract concept
An abstract concept of decision making that is technically indeterministic.
Does it exist?
We can look for evidence.
Design tests.
Intuition and introspection are not evidence.
Awareness of our own decision making processes is notoriously unreliable. (That is a fact supported by evidence from psychology, sociology and neurology)

5. Free will – Do not confuse:
The abstract concept of indeterministic decision making
The Phenomenon that we think “we can do otherwise”
Does it exist?
What would it look like?
What are the distinguishing features?
How can we test for it?
It does exist
What are its characteristics?
How can we model it?
How to test the model?
Can we make new predictions?

6. Looking for determinism
Computer/robot
Human
Alien visitor
What pattern of decision making would evidence indeterminism?

7. Free will – Do Not Confuse:
The abstract concept of indeterminism in decision making
The Phenomenon that “we can do otherwise”
Does it exist?
What would it look like?
What are the distinguishing features?
How can we test for it?
What are the facts?
And characteristics?
How can we model it?
How to test the model?
Can we make new predictions?

8. Free Will - the abstract concept
There is no evidence for it.
There is no conceivable test for it.
The concept of indeterminism has nothing at all to do with human decision making.

9. The false presupposition
Indeterminism is the false presupposition in the free will debate.
This is not just a compatibilist argument
Indeterminism has no place in the debate.
It is completely irrelevant and always has been.
It is an abstract concept for which there is:
no evidence,
no conceivable test,
no unique characteristics.

10. ……….Free will - the phenomenon
What are the characteristics of human decision making?
Why do we have the perception that “we could do otherwise”?
We are complicated organisms in a rich environment. We have never made different decisions in absolutely the same state.
We have made different decisions in similar circumstances. But that is unremarkable, every computer does it, clockwork mechanisms can too.

11. Intuition, introspection
Our awareness of our own decision making is deeply flawed, completely unreliable. The evidence from psychology, neuroscience, sociology, economics is irrefutable. We are frequently wrong in our self analysis. A perception that our decisions are not predetermined, is no evidence of indeterminism. But the perception does need explaining. ****** Health warning ****** In science, most breakthroughs in understanding were counter-intuitive at the time. Facts, predictions, tests and their results = progress.

12. “Could do otherwise” How do you know that you “could do otherwise?”
For any decision we are about to take we know we could do otherwise. It’s that simple.
We ask ourselves could we do otherwise? And it changes our behaviour.
Someone challenges us: “Could you do otherwise?” And we might act differently.
We have a rich history of such decisions and actions.

13. A highly discerning test
Consider an action/decision that is unusual, valueless or even moderately harmful.
Writing your signature with your left hand
Putting your hand in a flame
In response to a challenge, and for no other reason, we might take these actions >>>>>>> A very rare event becomes quite likely.
That’s how we know we could do otherwise, because we respond to a challenge. Either an external or self-generated challenge. The highly discerning test is the clearest example.

14. Could you?..... 14

15. The model We create a decision making agent with free will as follows:
Consider a utility agent that is goal seeking with some internal (subjective) goals.
We add an extra goal “independence”
Which is satisfied by responding to a “challenge”
The agent can then show us it could do otherwise,
>> With introspection, it will show itself that it could.
>>> With abstract analysis it will construct “free will”

16. The Utility Agent External stimuli Action Analyser Decision
Explanation/
communication
External
stimuli
Action Analyser
Decision
Internal
stimuli 20 10 40
Goals
Weightings 16

17. The Utility Agent with Free will External stimuli Action Analyser
Explanation/
communication
External
stimuli
Action Analyser
Decision
Challenge
Internal
stimuli 20 10 40 20
Goals
Independence
Weightings 17

18. Predictions
Any agent that responds to a challenge “to do otherwise” will be perceived to have free will
A suitably programmed computer?
Bender in Futurama?
An agent that does not respond to such a challenge will appear to not have free will.
A highly discerning test will give the clearest signal.
We could test an alien visitor
Cartoon entities provide tests free from stereotypes and prejudice.

19. Why did it take so long to understand?
Language
The colloquial expressions used the same words as precise technical terms like “indeterminism” “pre- determined”
Relying on introspection
Our awareness of our own decision making is notoriously unreliable. We don’t know how we make decisions.
Valuing intuition more than evidence.
We launched into amazing theories and models without first asking what were the facts. Which meant the theories were untestable!

20. Free Will The false presupposition and a testable model
Dr Mark Hadley - University of Warwick 19